Donuts

[GT6MK3]

Today was donut day here in Melbourne. 

Our state has a population about 2/3rds the size of London, and after lockdown 1 we were (through what seemed like hard graft and gentle restrictions) at no cases back in early June.  Then C19 escaped from the quarantine hotels that were setup (via the oh so fricken stupid "Security Guards"), and it proved why it's so dangerous.

By mid August we hit over 700+ new cases a day, despite being in the middle of a new lockdown lite.  Then we went full bore lockdown, with a 5km radius of movement, a nightly curfew, no leaving the city, and only an hour out of your house a day.  We've had some sort of lockdown since March, but this last one was written by the really not mucking around department.

The legal firms I work for have all been required to work from home, with all offices closed, and whopping $10K-100K fines up for grabs for breaches.  The government haven't been mincing words.  Out after curfew was a $5k fine.  Travelling more than 5km required carrying a permit, only available to "essential workers".  It's a pretty broad term, and I'm in it's catchall, so my experience has been different to many, with a 75km round trip each day keeping the IT at the various places I work for maintained, backed up, coddled, and running.  With about 75-80 previously onsite staff suddenly working from home across 4 networks, it's been interesting.  I'm not sure how Phil maintained his sanity doing 6+ months aboard the tanker.  I know the last day I had off was July 5th, so I'm a week or so away from 4 months of working every day, and I'm bloody exhausted.

I started a thread months ago about the lack of leadership by politicians.  We've been incredibly lucky here that we have a state leader whose taken the hard decisions, accepted the flack, withstood everything that the press (especially the Murdoch press) has thrown at him, and stuck to the advice given by scientists.  There's been a blame game running about how C19 escaped quarantine, a massive campaign by business sectors to open up, attempts to organise protests, and votes of no confidence.   Throughout, Dan Andrews has fronted a press conference every single day for almost 4 months, reminded us to get tested, deflected the BS from the press, laid out realistic goals, and given us a calm and honest picture of where we are, and where we're trying to get to.  Along the way, he's lost his chief of staff and his Health Minister to the "Quarantine Scandal", withstood daily attacks from the Federal Government who want him to somehow find a way to open up the economy and business, but still suppress the virus, and weathered vicious social media attacks from locked down citizens who've taken to calling him Dictator Dan (the polite ones).

There's some real science to be learned from the Victoria experience with C19.  The first is that lockdowns do work.  They're painful, but we had a bell curve exponentially going up.  17000 tests had 730+ cases. the graph after lockdown showed a bell curve curling down equally neatly.  The second is that masks work.  I hate masks, but the evidence is there.  Since masks outside the home became compulsory, the curve hit a downward arc.  Third, the virus is mostly spread indoors, and in peoples homes.  The majority of outbreaks we've suffered since our numbers really came down have been from families and households who's been visiting other households (which is not permitted under out C19 lockdown rules).  Visiting other homes has been our biggest spreading factor.  Finally, if the numbers are low enough to permit it, teat, track and trace are the very best weapons in the armoury.  Having got into single figures, we had an outbreak last week of 42 cases across multiple suburbs caused by a positive case leaving home, and others visiting.  Test, track, trace and isolation seems to have stopped it.

It's sucked being in lockdown, but we're on our way out, and hopeful of a semi normal xmas, and a "Covid Normal" summer.  Masks are here for a while, and working from home may be the rule for more months to come.  I'll be working every day for a while yet, I'm just hoping to not beat Phil's record.

Todays press conference had good news.

For the first time since June 5th, we had 16500 tests, and no cases in the state today.  Nil, nada, none.  Donuts!

We're incredibly lucky to be in a position to have the chance to now ride C19 out with much less disruption than the rest of the world.  I'm grateful that the chances of my elderly parents being at risk are much less.  We've had 800+ fatalities, mostly among the elderly, and that's horrible enough.  I shudder to think what will happen in the US, the UK and Europe before a vaccine is developed.  With luck and decent management, we'll keep it manageable here.

Tomorrow at midnight our lockdown starts to significantly ease, and all being well, the next shackles come off on Nov 8th.  I'm not prone to tears, but it's a measure of how taxing this has been that listening to today's presser announcing the relaxation, I was blinking back what was welling up in my eyes.  It's not like we've been living through a warzone, no one's been dropping bombs on us, but it's been no fun playing this game. One day soon I may get to see Mum and Dad, go for a skydive, and ride a Vespa into the countryside.  I'm grateful to the strong leadership that's gotten us to the point we're at, and looking forward to taking a day, a week, or maybe a month off soon.

[mpbarrett]

Gosh you have had a hard time but at least with a good outcome. Beating or controlling C19 really does need good honest leadership, I envy yours we are very poorly served in UK with a leader and advisers who are still in election/bullshit mode and with some of the worse figure in the world.
I hope you can soon get out for a ride on the Vespa, even if I dont understand the attraction when you have a Spitfire in the garage!

keep safe

mike  just north of Cambridge UK, low numbers of C19 outside of the city University colleges. 

 

[JohnD]

How different from the home life of our own dear queen, or in this case, Johnson!

Confidence is all in politics, and it seems that your man has that, from his populace.    Would we could say the same.     But it must be  admitted, lockdown is just a holding policy.     We are all going to be exposed to it in the end,  and a vaccine is unlikely to be as effective as, say, measles vaccine.   I do not advocate the 'let it rip' policy, that is a recipe for armageddon, but whatever policy a government uses will prolong the effects, by making them less devastating

[PaulAA]

Craig, you should be rewarding yourself with Krispy Kremes or some other artery-hardening faire - those look a bit too Dunkin' Donuts to be the prize that they should be.

YouGov have just published a poll covering 25 countries worldwide, addressing the issue of conspiracy theories.  It is frankly shocking what proportion of purportedly 'developed' democracies pay heed to this crap.  In some countries, 40% of respondents believe that C19 was created in a lab in either China or the US, over 30% believe that their lives are influenced by a secret super-governmental 'elite' and similar numbers believe that 5G is damaging to health.  That this rubbish is absorbed and regurgitated is in no small part down to astonishingly poor political leadership, which has either lost the confidence of the electorate or has engaged with the very sources of the conspiracy theories.  Trump today claimed that the pandemic is itself a conspiracy to stop him being re-elected (“Covid, Covid, Covid, Covid. By the way, on 4 November you won’t hear about it any more.”).

Stupidity and conspiracy theories 'prove' that masks are unnecessary - even the Pope doesn't bother with one.  Where is the leadership..?  My personal bete noir, The Daily Telegraph, has given up on news and relies instead on their opinion writers to push damaging conspiracy theories - masks don't work, herd immunity is the only option, Trump is Britain's best hope, etc.  On Sunday, a senior member of their staff even led with a piece promoting the theory that C19 isn't as serious as 'they' claim.

Ironically, given the success of lockdown in parts of Australia, we are in a mess here in Central Europe.  When cases were in the dozens in early March and we had yet to register our first death, Poland went into a complete lockdown.  It was successful, to the extent that it stemmed the spread and spawned theories about the type of antenatal vaccinations given during Communism providing 'special protection' to older adults in the region.  Whether the figures were adjusted or not, nobody knows, but the emergence from lockdown was relatively sudden, beaches, parties, weddings and drinks after work beckoned during the balmy summer and, now, we are in freefall.  The extent of economic damage done during the first lockdown means that we are ill-placed to bear another, but there seems little option.  Infections are rising logarithmically, ventilator demand is outstripping availability and deaths are rising significantly.  But out Govt has its mind elsewhere.  It can't control C19, so it is concentrating instead on ensuring the loyalty of the Catholic Church by pushing through the complete ban on abortion.  This has spurred mass protests - but how do you social distance during a demonstration of tens of thousands..?

Edited October 26, 2020 by PaulAA

[Nick Jones]

Well, I'm glad you have some light at the end of the tunnel - enough to celebrate with a donuts no less - which I assume sit higher up the luxury ranking that Timtams?

I'm going to stay out of the politics of this except to say that I hope that history remembers your man Dan Andrews kindly and he doesn't get punished by the electorate because they didn't like his medicine and don't believe it saved them - because he was firm enough to complete the course.

I also hope the plague having been banished, can be kept out - 'cause there's already been any number of powerful demonstrations of how quickly things can get out of hand......

Hope you can enjoy your summer and can take some well earned R & R - don't think the European winter is going to be very jolly..... 

[thebrookster]

Ahh, you have light at the end of tunnel that isn't the european catastrophe train hurling towards us at full speed!

It is quite startling as to how different the approach/attitudes are between your area of the world and Europe. Masks are the main thing, in the Philippines masks and shields were the norm, and everyone used them. Here in the UK, the two times I have set foot in a supermarket I have seen people not wearing a mask or shield.

I hope you get some sort of freedom soon, we have little chance over here, though that depends on where you are based. That I have set some goals that can be "aimed" (I say that very loosely indeed) at is quite a thought, I do just hope that worldwide governments realise that without shipping they will be screwed, and start making reasonable adjustments.

I also wish you all the joy of summer, and hopefully no breakdowns here to tie you up!

Phil

[GT6MK3]

So far so good.  14 days of zero new cases, only 3 known active cases left in a state of 6.5 million people.

Fingers crossed, masks on...

[GT6MK3]

24th straight day with no new cases today, and only one case left in hospital within the state.

Restrictions have eased considerably, and you can once again get a haircut and beard trim.

This was me at 8am.

But by 10 am I was looking a little more civilised

Now I just need to work towards a day or 2 off. 

[Nick Jones]

Jeez ....... 

The great Melbourne hair massacre just happened....

That beard! Are you allowed back in the house now?

[Hamish]

No wonder it took 2 hours !!

 

well done Melbourne/ Victoria.

 Hope you get to enjoy the summer. 

is there much talk of the vaccine down there ?

[GT6MK3]

On 11/25/2020 at 5:35 AM, Hamish said:

is there much talk of the vaccine down there ?

Well over a month of zero cases now and counting.  Lockdowns, if properly sold, spec'd seriously, bought into by the populace, and done properly, work.

We're in the interesting position where the entire country only has contained quarantine cases, with the occasional case getting out, but (currently) being rounded out and stamped on fast.  Biggest breakout recently was 30 in Adelaide when a quarantine cleaner was also a pizza chef by night, and looks to have not told the entire truth to the trace team when he caught it.  If this goes on, and we can keep it out of the genpop, we have the luxury of not needing to rush the vaccine.

If so, we'll be able to watch the world taking it for a few months and make sure nothing untoward happens, then hit a mass rollout.

Meanwhile, tomorrow will be 5 months without a proper day off.  I'm taking 3 days off next week.  Not sure how that will go!

[Nick Jones]

19 minutes ago, GT6MK3 said:

watch the world taking it for a few months and make sure nothing untoward happens, then hit a mass rollout.

Nice position to be in. Being tested on nursing home occupants and NHS staff here. I’d consider myself pro-vac, but slightly anxious about the haste.

The logistics of the particular vaccine the UK will be using are troublesome. Whatever the (presumably strong) reasons are for the packaging and preparation methods are, they don’t include ease of administration and low wastage...... And two doses needed - though that seems to be common with other types.

Australian control has been impressive and shows what can be done with competent leadership. We can but dream.....

[Hamish]

5 hours ago, Nick Jones said:

 

Australian control has been impressive and shows what can be done with competent leadership. We can but dream.....

I’d take it. 
it a vaccine not a “drug” 

and it’s not like it’s a cocktail like was issued to fight in the oil wars of the Arab states. 
 

Oz also seems to have a compliant population that on the whole looks to do the right thing. 
Unlike here where a lot are looking for the loop holes to do the wrong thing “legally” !!

[Nick Jones]

1 hour ago, Hamish said:

Unlike here where a lot are looking for the loop holes to do the wrong thing “legally” !!

Just following the lead of their government maybe..... 

I’ve reached the point where I assume that everything de Piffle says is questionable at best, quite possibly a bare faced lie..... so if he says something is safe..... no warm fuzzy feeling, only deep suspicion.

Fortunately other, far more trustworthy people seem convinced the vaccine is safe, so I’ll take it when offered. I’m not holding my breath though.

[rogerguzzi]

Hello All

                 I will take it when offered as it is better than the alterative at my age!

All vaccines carry a risk so does getting into your car and going on a Motorway etc.

Back to point one and these people do not think it is going to kill or damage millions(maybe a few few but all vaccines do that!)

Roger

ps I still believe it will be middle of next year before we fell vaguely safe and as one man said it is never going to go away like all the others we live with but have been vaccinated against!  

[GT6MK3]

We’ve had a couple of bubble ups since I last posted here, just from it passing from folks in the hotel quarantine system to staff there.  They’ve been quickly put down here in Vic where that’s the plan, a little slower north in NSW where there’s been less exposure to teach them how harsh the lessons can be.

Now though...

Life is pretty much pre COVID normal, albeit people have discovered they can work from home (which I’ve done since 1995), and there’s a heavy responsibility to check in for potential track and trace.

I read an article the other day where the populace here was described as “docile in its compliance to government directives”.  
 

Nearly spat my coffee out.  We were lucky that we were give the unvarnished truth from health professionals, given achievable goals that would require personal and public sacrifice,  given unprecedented government financial support for those who’s need it, and continual information and statistics that reinforced both the good and bad things that were happening.

In my state of Victoria, we wore the worst of it when the virus escaped the early days of quarantine before we really knew how virulent it is.  A harsh standard of lockdown to fix it wasn’t fun, but it worked.

Tonight Julz and I had dinner at a local cafe with no more restrictions than checking in online.

It’s a fragile utopia, but it’s achievable. 
 

Australia is made up of 2 main islands (yep, 2), with a population of a bit over 25 million.

The U.K. Is made up of 2 main islands with a population of a bit over 66 million.

 

Australia has had 2 weeks in specific hotel quarantine for all incoming travelers since March 27 2020.  Testing before coming here, immediately on arrival, during quarantine, and before leaving quarantine.

The UK has a confusing, hitch potch, unworkable set of guidelines for trying to catch COVID on the way in.

The UK has had over 3.7 Million cases of Covid 19, and over 100000 deaths.

Extrapolate that, and Australia would have had almost 1.5 million cases, and close to 40,000 deaths.

We’ve actually had less than 30,000 cases, and less than 1,000 deaths.

We paid dearly to be where we’re at.  Lockdown sucked.  Masks sucked. Not traveling sucks.  But our elderly and vunerable have been (mostly) protected, because our various levels of government have put aside their differences, worked together, and put out a consistent message that we, the populace, could swallow as adults.

 

The UK government needs to do better.

You deserve better, and you need to hold you government to account.  Get them to level with you, treat you as adults, be really to actually take the consequences of their dithering, move forward with the decisive hard choices, and do better.

Or not.  And goodbye to everyone over 70.

Demand your government does better.

[Nick Jones]

Totally agree.

Today (only today) the opposition (such as they are) have started to weigh in.

It’s taken 100,000 dead (by the government’s reckoning, other measures reckon more like 120,000) to trigger this. And, frankly, it’s far, far too late. The genie was out of the bottle in November, and it ain’t going back in without a monumental fight.

De Piffle says he’s sorry, but he did “everything possible”. He may indeed be sorry (but more I suspect because it makes his life harder, not because it’s made lots of other people dead), but he certainly hasn’t done everything possible, and even when the right things have been done, they have been done far too late or just very badly, by the wrong people for the job.

I also was struck by this talk of border controls, quarantine, quarantine hotels etc, now in January 2021, when real, competent (more competent anyway) governments were doing it in March or April 2020.......

[JohnD]

Craig,

You made the point about two islands, but were too polite to ask literally why the &*^%(P) that wasn't used to protect us, surely in favour of the airline industry.

Sad to say, and thanks to one of the extraordinary episodes (not the only one) when UK Labour was more interested in wining internal arguments than power, and the divisive diversion of Brexit, fomented by the Tories, they have a 60-odd majority in the Commons, which is nigh unassaible, as it is mostly composed of new MPs from the new "Blue Wall" of northern constituences who will comply with dPiffel's policies as only that will advance their careers.      There will be no General Election until the five year term of tis one runs out, and demanding better from this shower will be useless, chnage its ways or chnage the Government.

But you don't need to be an island to suppress Covid.    Viet Nam is a poor country, with a very long border with Cambodia, Laos and of course, China!   And they have had 1500 cases - One thousand five hundred - and 35 deaths from Covid.      Viet Nam has a very different political system to ours, and I suppose that many may suspect under-reporting, but even so!   Likewise, when the impact of Covid on BAME people in Europe became clear, the mechanism remained obscure.   The VitD evangelists preach sunlight, or lack of, in dark-skinned people in nothern latitudes.    Many feared for Africa, and other places where BAME people originate, but Africa is not a mortuary.   South Africa is not doing well, but in the rest of the continent, so poorly equipped with health services, the numbers are low, while India is second only to the USA!

[zetecspit]

There are strange things going on. With south Africa, it is the richest country on the continent (I think) yet suffered the worst. Sweden did sweet FA and yet have a very similar death rate as the uk. So should we have done nothing? 

France has a slightly smaller population than the UK, and 75k deaths. So not very different to the UK. Holland 1/4 our population, 1/7th the deaths. Doing better than us.

Those figures are all the declared deaths, I wonder if we should be looking at excess deaths instead. Figures from very poor countries with unreliable healthcare are probably unreliable.

But yes, we should have locked down earlier, but the issue may be our population not being terribly good at following instructions. I saw a figure that suggested as few as 18% of people who are instructed to isolate do so for the full 10 days or whatever. Not sure how that compares to other countries. And I suspect the people on this forums and that we see on the TV are not where the transmission is taking place. Just think, levels of infection are roughly levelling off. Where is teh transmission happening? I doubt supermarkets are too great an issue. But there are a vast number of people who are ignoring the rules, well, doing their best not to get caught, but are happily socialising in each others houses etc. Or all getting their hair cut. And that sort of thing. And I am not saying other countries don't have the same issues. 

Just a few musings....

[PaulAA]

John

Labour was indeed wrapped up in an internal issue - another pile of carp to leave on J Corbyn's appalling record of the damage he has allowed to happen to the UK on his watch.

At the risk of clambering onto my soapbox again, two basic facts are now clear - (a) the lying leadership of populist govts the world over have played down the risks and have precipitated, proportionately, most of the worst casualty numbers: the US, UK, Brazil, Poland, Hungary, Russia and (b) most better-performing countries (Australia excluded) are led by women.

It would be nice to think that this seminal lesson will be absorbed come national elections, but the US Presidential election (70m Americans continued to place trust in Donnie the Liar) suggests that it hasn't and it won't.

Paul

Edited January 27, 2021 by PaulAA

[Nick Jones]

52 minutes ago, zetecspit said:

With south Africa, it is the richest country on the continent (I think) yet suffered the worst.

Possibly the only place in Africa where data is being collected to any extent?  Also, in some African countries, strong measures were taken and taken early, (Botswana and Zimbabwe being two I know a little about).  Another major factor in Africa is population age.  Not very many elderly proportionately and age is the single biggest factor in morbidity by far.

 

1 hour ago, zetecspit said:

Sweden did sweet FA and yet have a very similar death rate as the uk.

Whaaat? 

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

UK 103,000 dead, pop approx 70m.  JH stats say 150/100k deaths, or first in the world league of horror (World-beating indeed Alas).  That's by the gov't favoured count which many say is 20% light.

Sweden 11,425 dead, pop approx 10m.  They don't even feature on the JH league table, the lowest no. shown on that being 10/100k

France is 8th at 110/100k

1 hour ago, zetecspit said:

but the issue may be our population not being terribly good at following instructions. I saw a figure that suggested as few as 18% of people who are instructed to isolate do so for the full 10 days or whatever.

Why apologise for this government? They DO NOT deserve it.  I have also seen this figure quoted but have no idea how it's arrived at.   Could have been made up by a Murdoch journalist as part of the "blame the public" campaign? But perhaps it should be recognised that one reason why the number might be low is that many of the people involved are presented with a stark choice.  Stay home (though you may be well), miss work, don't get paid/loose job, self and family go hungry, rent/mortgage unpaid......

But if you accept that a large proportion of those tagged ignore the instruction, whether out of basic harsh necessity or whatever, you also have to consider that the track and trace system is still performing very badly so the real number of potentially infected people in circulation is even higher.

As I see it the reasons for very high mortality as I see them are

Outside governments medium term control:
- Elderly and not especially healthy population
- small, prosperous, highly-mobile, densely populated nation with many links to the wider world

Consequences of short/medium term govt policies
- Chronically underfunded healthcare, both NHS and council care facilities
- Divide and conquer policies aimed at weakening local NHS and council facilities, control and decision making.
- Intentional running down of emergency stocks
- Failure act on their own finding from recent pandemic planning exercise

Decision failures
- Apparently unable to see trouble coming.  UK was hardly at the front of the wave, but still stood there scratching arse when the wave arrived in spite of watching China, S, Korea, Italy & Spain get wet....-
- No border control, no border testing.  Virtually no testing at all.
- Panic and instruct hospitals to dump the sick elderly into nursing homes untested for C19.  That decison alone is reckoned to have killed 25K
- No test and trace, then shambolic centralised test and trace at vast expense, which remains woefully ineffective to this day.
- Extremely slow to start testing and strange testing priorities.  How can you hope to control when you don't know what you face?
- Far too late to lockdown, so raising death numbers and economic damage.  
- Still too little testing.
- Eat out to help out (help the virus get going again after lockdown)
- Total failure to anticipate the effects of reopening schools on test demand and infection levels
- Complex and deeply confusing regional tiers/lockdowns with mixed messaging and advanced notice leading to great "sneezes" of infection as people scurry to beat them..
- Still no meaningful border control/quarantine measures
- The Christmas debacle
- Too late to lockdown again.

I'm sure that's only a partial list but...... 

The only thing done right (or as nearly right as is reasonable to expect) has been the vaccination program.  They may yet snatch defeat from the jaws of victory by messing with re-vaccination intervals, but we do fervently hope not because track and trace is still rubbish (and many people can't afford to heed it even if they are inclined to) and virus levels are still really high in spite of lockdown.  Only now is border control and quarantine being considered - the cynical might suggest because it's been belatedly identified as a way of slipping a few billion to party donors.  Cynical, hell no - just watch!

So DO NOT apologise for Alas de Piffle and his cabinet of horrors.  They are not worthy.  Nor are the bloody opposition so we are so screwed.......

1 hour ago, PaulAA said:

It would be nice to think that this seminal lesson will be absorbed come national elections

Not in the Murdoch-controlled world mate......  He needs to go away..... As does Vlad the Poisoner

 

[PaulAA]

16 minutes ago, Nick Jones said:

Not in the Murdoch-controlled world mate......  He needs to go away..... As does Vlad the Poisoner

 

The Jerry Hall treatment has clearly failed - the Dirty Digger ought to have pegged out on his wedding night.  Maybe he's immune to testosterone..?

[JohnD]

Craig read that "the populace here was described as “docile in its compliance to government directives” ".     He "Nearly spat my coffee out."!

I think I understand;  Australians have a strong streak of personal independance (forgive me if I go to far, Craig) that is the opposite of 'docile'.  Yet Australians with few exceptions, even those confined to quarantine hotels, have complied with a very long, very severe lock-down.      The only explanation I can find is that Australian politicians have the confidence of their people, who must be convinced of their competence.     Whilst from an early stage, in fact before Covid, the Current Tory "Leaders" have earnt the opposite.

Brits are the greatest moaners in the world; we always run down and lampoon our leaders, from Hogarth to Spitting Image, and whinge mightily, but equally venerate and cooperate with those who are the real thing.

[zetecspit]

2 hours ago, Nick Jones said:

Whaaat? 

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

UK 103,000 dead, pop approx 70m.  JH stats say 150/100k deaths, or first in the world league of horror (World-beating indeed Alas).  That's by the gov't favoured count which many say is 20% light.

Sweden 11,425 dead, pop approx 10m.  They don't even feature on the JH league table, the lowest no. shown on that being 10/100k

 

OK, Sweden scaled up is about 75% of our death rate. But they did nothing at all for ages, and yet a lower death rate. Anybody explain that? It really makes no sense. Unless the lockdown shuffling we have ben doing causes more deaths? But I do stand by the fact that the general UK population are none too god at doing the right thing. And that is not an apology for the govt. They have got a lot wrong.

We are not out of the woods yet. There are going to be many more deaths worldwide, and I am doubtful the truth will be known about who cocked up the most/least for some time. 

 

[JMH]

13 hours ago, zetecspit said:

OK, Sweden scaled up is about 75% of our death rate. But they did nothing at all for ages, and yet a lower death rate. Anybody explain that?

They stay home anyway - same result. 

And - remember its a huge country for 10 mio, so low population density esp. up north.