Covid 19, novel corona virus. Split from off-grid thread

[PeterC]

Please continue the corona virus discussion here........

 

Roger, India ?  Covid19 should be brewing up nicely there.......Peter

[rogerguzzi]

2 hours ago, PeterC said:

Roger, India ?  Covid19 should be brewing up nicely there.......Peter

Hello Peter

                     You are right in a way but how does the risk level compare to Malaria, Typhoid, Rabies, crowded main line trains that may crash, Hill Railways that may fall off the mountain or blow up, not to mention TUC TUC  taxi's plus the flight there and back?

Not to mention the deli belly !

And old Triumphs of course

Roger 

[PeterC]

1 hour ago, rogerguzzi said:

Hello Peter

                     You are right in a way but how does the risk level compare to Malaria, Typhoid, Rabies, crowded main line trains that may crash, Hill Railways that may fall off the mountain or blow up, not to mention TUC TUC  taxi's plus the flight there and back?

Not to mention the deli belly !

And old Triumphs of course

Roger 

Hi Roger, Those risks are known, but covid19 is new to humans.  And its the elderly like us who are most at risk of severe complications. Its unike flue where we 75 year olds have built up immunity. Covid19 is in India  https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/kolkata/covid-19-outbreaks-may-turn-endemic-fear-docs/articleshow/74155728.cms      Judging by the UK govt response to brits on  the quarantined Yokohama liner, you would be on your own. Peter

[Nick Jones]

Peter, while it is apparently true that older males are at most risk, do you really think that Covid 19 justifies the extreme responses it is provoking from governments and media?  
 

With a death rate of around 2%, which may be overstated as some people don’t appear to show any significant symptoms and don’t get counted as infected, it is barely worse that standard seasonal flu (with vaccination). 

[rogerguzzi]

Hello All

                  We think Bugger it unless we are REALY told not to go what the hell we all have to go sometime?

Plus what we can see at the moment it is the old and those in a poor state of health that are dying!

We think we are fit (ish for our age) and all the jabs are up to date and I still think 70+ year olds driving old cars at speed that were designed to kill you is no worse?

Still you may prove me wrong but as I said well past the sell/use/best before date so may as well go out enjoying yourself instead of paranoid about what may happen or not!

Roger

ps as my old mother said it is not a rehearsal for the next life (but see did think different?) so enjoy it

There is enough to worry us about with global warming etc plus that man in America that could start a Global war!

Getting Maudling now but have lost a lot of mates at much younger ages who would have loved to have a few more years!

[PeterC]

19 hours ago, Nick Jones said:

Peter, while it is apparently true that older males are at most risk, do you really think that Covid 19 justifies the extreme responses it is provoking from governments and media?  
 

With a death rate of around 2%, which may be overstated as some people don’t appear to show any significant symptoms and don’t get counted as infected, it is barely worse that standard seasonal flu (with vaccination). 

Nick,  It's new to humans so we really have little dea of where its going to lead. SARS died out, but we dont knwo why. Covid could do that or mutate and get worse, It is more infectious than flu, and death rate uncertian.

I dont trust politicians, and still recall Gummer and BSE. Worse medical authorities in the more chaotic countries will be flying blind, unable to test to distinguish Covid from flu. So sites like this that report its spread may give an optimistic slant:

https://vac-lshtm.shinyapps.io/ncov_tracker/

By and large I think the meedja are being responsible. But UK govt delay in getting brits off that ship in Yokohama is shocking. Cruise ships are well known as petri dishees for bugs ( eg norovirus ) and expecting quarantine to work for the brits on board is ridiculous.

Peter

 

[JohnD]

20 hours ago, Nick Jones said:

Peter, while it is apparently true that older males are at most risk, do you really think that Covid 19 justifies the extreme responses it is provoking from governments and media?  
 

With a death rate of around 2%, which may be overstated as some people don’t appear to show any significant symptoms and don’t get counted as infected, it is barely worse that standard seasonal flu (with vaccination). 

Hmmmmmmm!   "Standard seasonal flu" has a mortality rate at most a tenth of that.

PeterC said " SARS died out, but we dont knwo why. Covid could do that or mutate and get worse."    SARS was defeated by the same weapons that are being used against CoVid-19, intense contact tracing and isolation.     Those were succesful because it seems that SARS was not as infetcious as is this virus, and because it had a shorter, non-infective incubation period.    They are the only weapons we have, but they were succesful against even nastier bugs like Ebola!

John

 

[RedRooster]

Ships have HVAC, so quickly spread though the cabins, so i'm surprised so few have caught it onboard.

[PeterC]

New Scientist runs a weekly report on covid19, and there are many twists and turns to interpreting the "data".  However a death rate of around 1 to2 % of those known to be infected seems to be predominantly in the over-60s.  I have not yet seen death rates for infected, non-hospitalised, over-60s. That's the figure that matters to me !

Peter

[thebrookster]

1 hour ago, RedRooster said:

Ships have HVAC, so quickly spread though the cabins, so i'm surprised so few have caught it onboard.

Most likely because the ship has the HVAC system set to external air only.

You normally have a choice, full external/full recirc/mixture of the two. In general you would use a mixture, however they can if need be (like when infectious airborne diseases strike) go to full external supply only (main problem with this is you pressurise the ship, which makes getting in and out of doors a bit harder).

If it is a newer vessel, there is also a good chance each cabin has its own A/C and heater unit, to allow guests to set the temp to their own preference, which also helps negate the issues with spreading infection of the traditional HVAC system.

[PeterC]

8% fatalties  for oldies, but that may be a figure based upon those hospitalised

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-02-coronavirus-infections-mild-chinese.html

[mpbarrett]

also seems to effect medical staff, not sure if that's because they are working such long hours they are run down or if there is another reason.
The Chinese are offering support for medical staff families is they die...

Mike

 

[RedRooster]

22 hours ago, thebrookster said:

If it is a newer vessel, there is also a good chance each cabin has its own A/C and heater unit, to allow guests to set the temp to their own preference, which also helps negate the issues with spreading infection of the traditional HVAC system.

True, but how many are in lower class?

[thebrookster]

8 minutes ago, RedRooster said:

True, but how many are in lower class?

I would expect all, simply because by the time you fit the others you might as well do them all. Plus you can lose a good chunk of the traditional HVAC equipment, which makes for more space for other stuff!

Plus lower class is a slight misnomer in cruise ships, even those tickets aren't exactly cheap lol

[PeterC]

1 hour ago, mpbarrett said:

also seems to effect medical staff, not sure if that's because they are working such long hours they are run down or if there is another reason.
The Chinese are offering support for medical staff families is they die...

Mike

 

I think it is to do with multiplicty of infection, A droplet of cough caught by a physician off a patient is much more dangerous tahn a smear from a handrail transferred hand to mouth. The more viruses transferred at once the easier it si for them to out-run immune defenses.

Peter

[Nick Jones]

It gets close to home........ Senior Management's surgery was shut for a couple of hours this afternoon for "disinfection" after a patient came in with a bad cough, and sat barking out goodness knows what in the waiting room for some time, before revealing to the GP that her son is in hospital quarantine "with corona virus" after a trip to Thailand.......  This in spite of the fact that all the surgeries clients have been emailed to ask them to stay away from the surgery (and go through the 111 system instead) if they have had any possible contact.  Seems she may have told the GP this when making the appointment but have been asked in anyway, though facts appear to be in short supply.

Apparently a call to NHS England to ask what to do was not as enlightening as might have been hoped........  Stuff like this makes me think that it is not possible to keep the lid on it.  Someone will always screw up (Terry Pratchett called it the "Fred Effect").  Similar incident at MiLs surgery in Taunton last week - though I'm not sure whether it's known whether either "infected person" was actually infected with C19.

[JohnD]

 The Diamond Princess, docked in quarantine in Japan, is the largest focus of CoVid-19 infection in the world, outside China.     And the initial quarantine period having elapsed, all those who have not gone down with it are beng allowed to go home!    The Americans have been evacuated, and will spend another 14 days in quarantine in the US; we are told the the UK will do the same - when the Gov can be arsed to organise a flight - and other European nations are to get theirs out.   

Meanwhile, new cases have continued to emerge on the ship, any one of which should initate a new fortnight of quarantine.   The original period has been observed, so everyone can go home, but there are people on that ship from FIFTY different countries!     Many will not/cannot evacuate and quarantine their nationals.      Japan has been grossly negligent, and just wants rid of them - and it lets apparently uninfected passengers catch taxis into town and make their own way home!     This ship is a global Typhoid Mary, that will infect Japan and the rest of the world!

John

[PeterC]

Is Japan trying to brush covid19 under the carpet to preserve its Olympics in July?

[PeterC]

Informative video here:

https://www.bmj.com/coronavirus?int_source=wisepops&int_medium=wisepops&int_campaign=DAA_CoronaVirus_Jan24

[JohnD]

Well, well. No need to take it from a retired anesthetist.   Take from a professor of infectious diseases at Kobe University.    His assessment of the managment of CorVid-19 on board the Diamond Princess?   Quote, "Completely chaotic".

 

His asesment and advice were not welcome, and he was "ejected" from the ship, which he went to visit as a specialist.

Edited February 19, 2020 by JohnD

[PeterC]

That is scary. I'd have thought Japan would be one of the better prepared nations, Apparently not.

This is going to be a loooong thread.

Peter

[Nick Jones]

Watching in some disbelief as chaos grows...... just as well it’s not (so far) a really lethal one as I reckon it’s well and truly out of the bottle.

Supposed to be going Sicily in 3 weeks time. Feeling a bit doubtful about that just now - not because I’m worried about the bug itself, but because I’m worried about getting caught up in one (or multiple) bureaucratic knee jerks and interned somewhere or just left without a way home again.

So far the “wisdom” of various “authorities” has seen a quite a few examples of uninfected people being locked up for a couple weeks with infected people, assumed clear then shipped out just as they get sick so they can infect others and then locking them up again somewhere else....

There is a wry belief from a health professional not far from where I’m sitting that’s it’s been sent to cull the weak from the herd and clear out the nursing homes.  Harsh.... but not without point.

Still, with Dimcock and D’piffle in charge here and Pence in the USA..... what could possibly go wrong.....?

[PaulAA]

A colleague in Moscow tells me that Russian TV is pouring out accusations that the whole affair is a CIA-funded campaign to destabilise the Chinese economy...  Unfortunately for the rest of the world, Trump's appointment of known fruitcake Pence to lead the US response to Covid-19 is almost a confirmation of this hair-brain theory.

I recall that, during the SARS epidemic, cross-infection within an isolation zone was shown to be accelerated by a number of factors, including, in the case of a Hong Kong residential block, faults in the drainage system, which back-fed small amounts of contaminated sewage.

The US CDC is now starting to release information on the lifespan of the virus when deposited on various surfaces.  It lasts about 2 hours on hard, impervious surfaces (steel, plastic), but, logically, far longer on absorbent materials, such as cardboard packaging.  I am encouraging No.2 cadet to re-think his addiction to ordering badly-wrapped trinkets from Aliexpress...

[zetecspit]

We are off skiing next weekend Austria. 

I was a bit in 2 minds, but happy enough that we are not at any real risk, even if we get the virus. The real problems would be with getting home if somebody nearby gets it (and we have an autosolo to do the day after we are supposed to get home) and concerns over my rather frail parents, where I am visiting most days.

My sister is going spare, worried not about said parents, but if I need to self quarantine and she "gets lumbered" with care duties for a few weeks. Then went on about getting carers in. At which point I explained that carers would be vectors of death as they visit so many different people and are in close contact etc. So no win on that. 

I think Nick is correct though. This is going to be nigh on impossible to contain, entirely down to this 2 weeks of being infectious prior to symptoms. And even if people think they have been exposed or caught it, many will carry on as normal as it appears for most people it is mild. And they want to earn a living.

no, this is likely to spread exponentially. And yes, I can see the value of shares in care homes plummeting (they will be another area where the combination of minimum wage workers, frail people and close contact is the ideal scenario for transmission)

Not sure how to protect the parents.... doubt I can do much.

[AB|W]

Solves the housing crisis though.

Wife booked into Crufts with the dog next week but will probably cancel. Crufts though determined to carry on with a 160,000 visitor international event. Some reports from Japan that dogs also have symptoms, so lots of opportunities to ensure UK can make it to the top of the infections rankings.

Alan