Covid 19, novel corona virus. Split from off-grid thread

[PeterC]

1 minute ago, PaulAA said:

Hi Peter

Not according to the conspiracy theorists...

Hope you're safely isolated up there.  My sister (the one who collected the wheel) has just been re-assigned to a critical care ward, but her husband is diabetic, so they are contemplating physical separation for the duration.

Paul

Hi Paul.   Yes isolated since end Feb, and loaded up with D3 as back-up. Good idea for your sister to keep clear of her husband, it must be near impossible to prevent cross contamination in the home. Pls wish them well,  Peter

[DeTRacted]

28 minutes ago, PeterC said:

Difficult to envisage deaths being mis-recorded, it is rather definitive

It is reported that UK records all deaths as being due to CV even if it was the underlying condition wot did it. Other countries are said to report only the actual cause of death so no, number of deaths may not be definitive if this is true. 

[PeterC]

2 minutes ago, DeTRacted said:

It is reported that UK records all deaths as being due to CV even if it was the underlying condition wot did it. Other countries are said to report only the actual cause of death so no, number of deaths may not be definitive if this is true. 

That difference would influence the absolute numbers on the graph, but not I think the slopes.

[RedRooster]

Another 2 weeks of isolation here, wonder when it's going to end.

[PeterC]

1 minute ago, RedRooster said:

Another 2 weeks of isolation here, wonder when it's going to end.

I'm watching Wuhan, if COVID returns there, then thers no end in sight..................

[PaulAA]

2 hours ago, PeterC said:

Hi Paul.   Yes isolated since end Feb, and loaded up with D3 as back-up. Good idea for your sister to keep clear of her husband, it must be near impossible to prevent cross contamination in the home. Pls wish them well,  Peter

Thank you, Peter.  Will Do.

Paul

[PeterC]

[PeterC]

2 hours ago, PeterC said:

I'm watching Wuhan, if COVID returns there, then thers no end in sight..................

Hubei recorded 1 case per 1000, so even allowing a generous 10-fold extra unrecorded mild infections, it means 99% of the population is not immune. If contact tracing does not work I think the epidemic will recur. Tracing when infection is symptomless for several  days may not be feasible.

[Chris W]

18 hours ago, PaulAA said:

Hi Chris

Can you reference the two different approaches to recording deaths?  It appears that the UK is currently recording deaths only of people who die in hospital, but are you suggesting that the UK figures are the total of everybody who dies with rather than of covid-19?  I've not come across any suggestion that the Germans are 'deflecting' their statistics - is this confirmed?

However, it does appear that the UK's published rate of infection is somewhat meaningless and that the German rate is closer to what we all hope is reality.

Paul

Hi Paul,

No 'official' source for that.

Regarding the UK, I confess I assumed that anyone who tested positive and then died would probably have been in hospital but at any rate, UK deaths must be signed off by a doctor and they would know that the person was fighting CV-19 when they died.  In the early days (not so much now) the Media announced the deaths and also mentioned underlying health conditions.  Now the 'news' is if someone dies who didn't have underlying conditions.

Regarding the German Stats, I got that from some German colleagues in a video call last week, when we discussed the fact that the Germans seemed to be performing better on mortality.  There were 10 Germans on the call and nobody dissented from the explanation offered by one of them and I repeated in my post.

The Diamond Princess seems to offer an ideal closed test environment. 2700 people, all tested, 712 positive, 8 deaths.  When the antibody test is available, they should re-test all the passengers to see if any of those that weren't positive when tested, had already had it and recovered.

Cheers

Chris

 

[PeterC]

22 hours ago, PaulAA said:

The Japanese are indoctrinated from childhood to obey authority - I do not mean this in a racist or pejorative way, it is simply fact.  When requested to social distance, they undoubtedly did so with care and exactitude, unlike certain European societies.

Paul

Japanese are high in D3 too:

[Chris W]

22 hours ago, Chris W said:

Hi Paul,

Regarding the German Stats, I got that from some German colleagues in a video call last week...………………………………...

Update:

Seems that my German colleagues were misinformed!!!

I came across a 'tweet' from British Journalist Andrew Neil, who had been suggesting the same thing in a discussion about the merits of the German Health system vs the NHS.  As a consequence he shared some further research.

It turns out that the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) who handle the death statistics in Germany, had felt the need to clarify their death statistics due to 'claims that they were massaging the numbers'.

They state that although they include other underlying possible causes, any person who dies with CV-19 is included in their CV-19 death statistics.  In fact, they go further, by testing all people who die (post mortem) for CV-19 and if it is found, they get included also.

So sorry to mislead, it wasn't intentional

Cheers

Chris

 

[Nick Jones]

Thanks for the update on this.

Differences between death rates in Italy and Spain are so much higher.....

Figures we seem to lack are testing rates per head of population for comparison.

Though even UK numbers are lower considering test has mostly been confined to those sick enough to be admitted to hospital.....

[Rod1883]

There is some testing data on the net, but it is difficult to compare as the data isn't all of the same date.

Our testing was slow starting but now is up at the higher end of the scale I would have thought. Bang up to date testing data doesn't seem to be available on comparison tables -the UK is shown as ~65k tests on 19th March on the link below, but we are now at ~128k as at 9am yesterday

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-testing

[PaulAA]

6 hours ago, Chris W said:

Update:

Seems that my German colleagues were misinformed!!!

I came across a 'tweet' from British Journalist Andrew Neil, who had been suggesting the same thing in a discussion about the merits of the German Health system vs the NHS.  As a consequence he shared some further research.

It turns out that the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) who handle the death statistics in Germany, had felt the need to clarify their death statistics due to 'claims that they were massaging the numbers'.

They state that although they include other underlying possible causes, any person who dies with CV-19 is included in their CV-19 death statistics.  In fact, they go further, by testing all people who die (post mortem) for CV-19 and if it is found, they get included also.

So sorry to mislead, it wasn't intentional

Cheers

Chris

 

Thanks, Chris

So you would agree that the infection rate in the UK must be vastly greater than the current level of testing indicates?

I'm no scientist, but it might go some way to explaining the Italian and Spanish situations as well - maybe Lombardy in particular is well down the road towards some degree of herd immunity...  As Nick says, the key data missing is a comparable measure of testing rates

Meanwhile, over here, we are barely testing.  The numbers of infected are therefore low and, ipso facto, closing the borders and closing shopping centres has achieved the Govt aim of preventing covid-19  penetration into Poland.  No justification in wasting money on masks, gowns, gloves, respirators, etc. and money redirected from public health to public television is still going to television.  No engagement with service providers.  No mobilisation of capable members of an increasingly redundant workforce.  The stupidity of Populism writ large.

Paul

[Nick Jones]

Did see a UK - DE comparison over the weekend (figures likely out of date by now) suggesting that even if UK targets of 10,000 tests a day ( 70k /week) are being met (BJ claims they are, highest confirmed figure I'd seen at the time was in the 6ks), the Germans are testing 500k a week.  This would go some way to explaining the disparity in apparent death rates.  I've not seen any comparable figures for Italy/Spain though.  The numbers are hideous whatever...…. but it does imply that "low grade" disease is widespread.

As for the USA..... whereas I have seen it suggested that one reason for the near vertical increase curves is the increased testing picking up cases that were "already existing"...… the only word for it is dire!

Reckon things in Poland could (!) get worse.  Probably already are considerably worse that the official line.  Watching Sweden with interest...…..

Testing, both for live disease and antibodies, is absolutely key.  Both for minimising death and minimising economic impact.   Antibody test becoming more important as time passes to catch "false negatives" - ie people who have already had it without noticing.

Saw a really nasty video, from a security camera on someones house,  pointing at their driveway, but angle meaning that 3 other driveways are in shot. It shows a person in a hoodie working their way down the street, spitting on their hands and rubbing it all over the all the car door handles...…  There are some sick people out there.  Can only hope they catch something really nasty in return.

[JohnD]

This appeared in the New England J of Medicine, last week:

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2004973?query=featured_home

The relevant results are shown below:

SARS-CoV-2 is what we call Corona Virus or CoVid-19.   SARS -CoV-1 is the virus that caused the short lived but deadly SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) epidemic in 2003. That was used as it is so similar to the CoVid-19 virus. 

The bar-and-dot display shows the standard error and the mean of each measurement.  The shorter the bar, the more confident we can be in the result.     The dashed line indicates the limit of detection.        As can be readily seen, on cardboard, the virus became undetectable after 24 hours.    This does NOT mean there was none there. 

This data has made me resolve not to read my newspaper at breakfast!    

John

Edited March 30, 2020 by JohnD

[PaulAA]

Dominic Cummings, last seen running away from Downing Street at the exact moment Johnson was announcing his positive test result, is self-isolating with symptoms.

Who will run the country in his absence..?

[zetecspit]

Nick, saw the Sweden thing over the weekend. Seems they have another approach again to the virus despite seeing how things develop elsewhere. It is almost as if no country thinks it will happen to them in the same way as others. I still like the way "we" are handling it, and compliance is generally pretty good and (so far) not too much grumbling. 

Not sure what the "additional measures" are that were mentioned yesterday, but I reckon the govt will be hesitant to enforce much more in the way of restrictions for fear of civil disobedience breaking out. Somebody from the police did say that this country is policed by consent, and they won't want the public to turn against them.

 

John, it seems this virus is a tough little bugger. Copper, as you know, is pretty poisonous stuff so surprised it lives on copper so long. Leta alone a plastic shopping bag or tin of beans. But the handwashing and sensible precautions should keep people safe enough. 

The one thing I am unsure about is the strategy our govt is using. Are they hoping to get to herd immunity over the next 6 months? Hopefully getting there quickly enough but without a collapse in the NHS?

 

[PeteStupps]

Interesting angle from Lord Sumption on Radio 4 just now (World at One, about 15 mins in if you want to listen).

He strongly suggested we are showing all the hallmarks of collective hysteria over this virus, and governments are responding to people's demands for action without bothering to think whether the measures are grossly disproportionate. He also went on to talk about the Derbyshire constabulary behaving like a police state and enforcing Government's preferences rather than law. 

Realise he's not the first person to say these things but it's interesting to hear.

Personally I think he's wrong but maybe i'm hysterical!

[SP]

Breaking up karaoke parties of 20 people or more is fine,but shouting at couples walking their dog via a drone?.

S

[PaulAA]

100 hours from first meeting to first production model of a new positive pressure breathing aid.  Remarkable achievement.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52087002

Paul

[SP]

32 minutes ago, PaulAA said:

100 hours from first meeting to first production model of a new positive pressure breathing aid.  Remarkable achievement.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52087002

Paul

And to be able to churn out 1000 a day soon,truly amazing achievement.

S

[JohnD]

Lord Sumption, a man of extraordinary intelligence and achievement, who opposed the fast-tracking of gender equality in th4e Supreme Court because it would "have appalling consequences for justice".    A man, perhaps, who has some extreme views.

Paul, that's a CPAP, Continuous Positive Airway Pressure, device, not to be confused with a ventilator.   Worn with a mask that seals to the face, no tube,  its most common use is for snorers, and those with obstructive sleep apnoea, but useful sometimes for those with limited acute lung problems.

[Nick Jones]

1 hour ago, JohnD said:

Paul, that's a CPAP, Continuous Positive Airway Pressure, device, not to be confused with a ventilator.   Worn with a mask that seals to the face, no tube,  its most common use is for snorers, and those with obstructive sleep apnoea, but useful sometimes for those with limited acute lung problems.

Technology being correctly applied do you think John?  Presumably pressures a just a few mBar above atmosphere involved?

[JohnD]

ICU ventilators in the UK usually read in cms of water, but yes, up to less than 2mBar.

I'm too long out of ICU and respiratory care to say how useful CPAP might be.    It usually failed as support when the condition is starting, the pt has to go on IPPV, with a tube etc, but I've used it for 'weaning' a pt off a vent.   That happens after prolonged ventilatiion, weeks, which won't happen here.

I was thinking that the manufacturers might remanufacture some of the earlier and simpler vents.    A VERY early one was the East-Radcliffe;  electric motor and a gearbox to adjust the breathing rate.  The gearbox was made by Sturmey-Archer!  The motor lifted weights on a bellows - add weights to make it blow harder.

But that was pre-electronic, and we know a lot more about control now.

Apologies, Zetec, didn't answer before.    Yes, 'herd immunity'  (HI) seems to be their aim, as a vaccine is 12-18 months away, despite modern DNA/RNA vaccine techniques that have alreday yielded candidates and Phase 2 Human  trials about to start.    But HI requires at least 80% of the population to be immune, and here that means having had the disease.   So slowing that infection, 'smoothing' out the peak, is hoped will stop a total overwhelming of the NHS by 10-20 times the capacity of UK hospital beds of the infected.  

I am distraught to think that Daughter and Son-in-Law are back in that plaguepit we call the NHS.   I don't know what PPE protection their hospitals have been able to provide.   I'm standing by with spraymask and visor, if not.   I'm distraught because I hear of the doctors already dead from Covid-19.    I'm not about to go off on one again, but "there will be a reckoning with China, when this is over" (Cabinet leak)?   There should be a shooting, of politicians who did nothing, not even order some masks, as the infection approached.

Edited March 30, 2020 by JohnD