Russia and sanctions

[sparky_spit]

I was listening to the radio a couple of days ago, and Lord Dannatt was giving an interview to a Radio 2 presenter on the subject of sanctions and their power. All very sensible until he mentioned that Russia would also be barred from entering the Eurovision Song Contest.  Yes, really.

Putin must be wetting himself.....

[Nick B.]

Being barred from the cultural events does probably not bother Putin. But for the ordinary Russian who has very little information to go on apart from russian statetelevision reporting on the 'denazification' of Ukraine, experiencing the cultural sanctions might cause some reflection upon what Putin is doing. 

Hence, while cultural sanctions are not crucial for putin, it might waken some public criticism of the invasion.

 

Cheers

Nick

[PeterC]

It looks to me that we have Pearl Harbor 2.  Putin has galvanised the EU28 into action -even Hungary has turned against Putin. And 100,000 germans demand action to help Ukraine - so much for a strategy of sidling up to Putin. I am sad for one time colleagues in Russia who can expect isolation and hyperinflation. But longer term there might  be brighter future for a demonstrably democratic Russia, look at Japan today.

My immediate concern is Putin's mental state. It has been apparent from his gait since at least 2008 that Putin suffers from Parkinson’s disease. We are not privy to his drug regime but he may have reached the stage when l-DOPA has lost efficacy and he now needs dopamine agonists. These drugs have side-effects: hallucinations, delusions, confusion, depression, and mania are some of the most common adverse effects related to the long-term use of these drugs.

 

 

[JohnD]

We may also expect  inflation, mainly driven by energy prices.      UK not dependant on the German's Nordline gas pipe, itself driven by their democratic but idelaistioc rejection of nuclear power, but we are subject to the increase in gas prices that will result.

Do sanctions ever work?    Applied against Syria, that didn't harm Assad, against South Africa, that did get Mandela in and apartheit out, but after a very long time with many other factors involved, against Russia after the Crimea annexation - did they notice? The list goes back to the league of Nations, and despite there being perhaps sixteen events where sanctions can have been said to have worked (Economic Sanctions Reconsidered: Hufbauer, Gary Clyde, Schott, Jeffrey, Elliott, Kimberly Ann, Oegg, Barbara: 9780881324129: Amazon.com: Books) none of them involve actual war.

John

[PeterC]

Maybe the sanctions are aimed at Putin's kleptocrats who see their ill-gotten gains from supporting Putin being frittered  away. They are close to Putin and may be so incensed as to depose him - they can afford to put a price on his head. Switzerland has joined the sanctions, blocking Russian funds.

[zetecspit]

Besides,  the Russian people are starting to understand the pain of sanctions, and while state TV is saying how wonderful to liberate the Ukraine, if is almost impossible to prevent the spread of western news. 

Putting has a real problem. He can't back down, he has shown the nuclear card very early, he has gained nothing significant.

I am wondering if he will suffer a heart attack in the near future. Seems to be hbevdone thing over there.

[JohnD]

If he does, they'll probably leave him for 24 hrs before they call a doctor , like they did Stalin.

[zetecspit]

41 minutes ago, JohnD said:

If he does, they'll probably leave him for 24 hrs before they call a doctor , like they did Stalin.

These days they may have a doctor ready, after all it could happen at a prearranged time.

[JohnD]

If they do they'll have to be quick on their toes.    Stalin had just purged all his appointed doctors, accused of the "Doctors Plot" against him.

Doctors' plot - Wikipedia

[PeterC]

Where is a smear of novichok when the world needs it, or a ricin-tipped umbrella.

[Nick Jones]

8 hours ago, JohnD said:

Applied against Syria, that didn't harm Assad

No, but to a great extent because he had Putins backing.  When I was in Syria (briefly) in 1986, there were Russians about even then and they weren't popular.  I got asked if I was Russian quite often (other Europeans were very rare) and they were always visibly pleased relieved when I said I was English>  Even though UK and Syria had just had a major falling out, the man in the street was appreciative of Mrs Thatcher - "very strong leader"....... Hmmmm....

 

1 hour ago, PeterC said:

Where is a smear of novichok when the world needs it, or a ricin-tipped umbrella

Quite...... he who lives by the...... novichok..... or whatever deserves to die my it.  Though Novichok doesn't seem to be quite deadly enough.  Polonium though...... lingering and mighty uncomfortable end.

[PaulAA]

Been a little tied up over here, but thought I'd post a few notes from the grim end of Europe.

As you're doubtless aware, the second Great Patriotic War isn't going quite to plan. The Ruskies invading Ukraine have turned out to be a disorganised rag-tag bunch of conscripts and competing fiefdoms, all hang overs form the communist approach of divide and conquer. The Ukrainian Defence force is determined and motivated and the Ruskies may eventually occupy the whole country, but they will not win. So they've resorted to criminal behaviour, targeting civilians, hospitals and refugee convoys, and, of course, lies and misinformation straight from the Donald Trump Book of Honesty. Despicable doesn't even scratch the surface.

The great fear last week was the attack on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station. The second hand of the doomsday clock was damn near striking midnight that day. Then the fear that the lunatic Putin would used tactical nuclear warheads. Today, there is a growing realisation that taking Kyiv by conventional means will cost too much time and too many resources, so he may well resort to chemical or biological weapons. He has them.

Here in Poland, we have enthusiastically absorbed about 1.2m refugees to date - an achievement of individual magnanimity and local govt organisation. Central govt has been shockingly bad, only really engaging with easing border controls and swanning around cooking up stupid plans, like offering the Ukrainians our aged stock of MiG fighters. Thankfully, Stoltenberg steamed in and gave them a good slapping, hence the current almost-as-stupid plan to give the planes to the US, so that the US can give them to the Ukrainians. Same mess, different players. When the action has cooled off a bit and we take stock of what impact this number of people will have on the country, the welcome may not remain as warm, especially if the rest of the Europe stays cool on the concept of offering longer term residency. I'll keep my own counsel on the UK's behaviour.

There's no panic here, but our Govt's naivety in almost starting WWIII by accident has made everybody a little bit more nervous. Everybody I know has a bag packed and the vestiges of a plan in case there is a surprise attack.

I know you've now seen Zelenskiy in action, but it is difficult to describe what a remarkable guy he is. It's no exaggeration to say that he's that very rare commodity - a statesman. He visits his front line troops, maintains a constant dialogue with other world leaders, strides into the daily press conference and espouses the lectern to sit amongst the journalists. The turd Putin, in contrast, is now permanently in his bunker and governs by video. If Zelenskiy is caught by a member of the Wagner Group (let's face it - the Russian army isn't going to catch him), there will be a show trial and execution. Then the turd will move onto the Baltics.

Russia is now a ruined country and there is no equitable end to the Ukrainian invasion for anybody. Putin is pursuing the policies of Lesser Russian genocide that Stalin left unfinished (he was busy in the Kremlin archives during the pandemic boning up on Russia's history), but the Valkyrie death he is creating for his country is more reminiscent of Hitler. I recently saw him described as the most dangerous man ever to have lived. He is that.

[JohnD]

Thank you, Paul!  Refreshing, if gloomy.

Is Poland giving Ukraine its Mig fighters such a bad idea?     The Ukranian Air Force cannot be expected to maintain or fly aircraft that it had never seen before, no point in sending F36 or Typhoons.      The UK has been sending anti-tank and other lethal arms, so have the Germans and the US, and - so far - that hasn't escalated the war.   The limiting factor would be Ukranian pilots, an awful calculation, but in WW2 Spitfire pilots were at first trained for three months, then ten, then nine weeks.     A jet pilot has more to think about, but I don't imagine that there would be a lack of Ukranian volunteers, their courage seems so great.     Saying that, why not train them intensively to fly modern jets?     Training the engineers and technicians might take longer, and need whole hangars full of kit as well as just aircraft.

John

[PaulAA]

John

Theoretically, the Ukrainian pilots could take over the MiGs with very little training - some differences in the avionics and weapons control systems, but fundamentally a familiar aircraft, apparently. The issue got off to a bad start because the Polish offer was for Ukrainian pilots to come to Poland, collect the MiGs, do some basic training and then fly sorties out of two bases in Poland. Difficult to present this without it looking like direct NATO involvement in the war.

The Ruskie predictably targeted military and civilian airfields in their early bombing, so bases for the Ukrainian air force are diminishing. That said, the Ruskies' ability to hit an enormous airstrip with ordnance is somewhat limited...

The diplomatic blunder hasn't gone unnoticed and the US is hurriedly shipping two Patriot anti-missile systems to us in anticipation of what comes next.

[JohnD]

Thank you again, Paul for the explanation, which didn't make it into our news reports.    I can understand the offer.   For Polish pilots to fly into Ukraine would look - or be made to look, it would only take one skirmish with a Russian aircraft - like a NATO invasion.   Could neutral pilots be recruited as ferry pilots?  India has some Migs.   The rest appear to belong to countries on Russia's fringes, who would be in the same bind as Poland.

[PaulAA]

John

There's a lot of shouting about creating a no-fly zone over Ukraine, but this comes back to the same issue - to enforce it would involve NATO aircraft and equipment entering Ukrainian airspace and engaging Russian aircraft. It is difficult and harsh, but NATO's border is clear and to overstep it would incur severe consequences for everybody.

Paul

[John I]

12 hours ago, PaulAA said:

I'll keep my own counsel on the UK's behaviour.

 

Don’t feel the need to hold back Paul, our lot are a complete joke on that front not even worthy of a Monty Python sketch.

They at least have got the balls on this occasion to send defensive tools to the right place.

Very difficult to stop land launched Missile and shell bombardment with a no fly zone. Harsh choices in that regard so more defensive tools needed and quick.

So heartening to see the response that your countrymen are giving to those that are fleeing that mad man and his deprived puppets called a military.

[PeterC]

Now, where did I put those iodine tablets and that old copy of Protect and Survive.

[JohnD]

 

8 hours ago, John I said:

Very difficult to stop land launched Missile and shell bombardment with a no fly zone.

Quite right, but it works in reverse.   To impose a no-fly means attacking ground assets from the air, radar and missile launchers.   That could/would launch WW3 if done by NATO.   I'm sorry for the Ukrainians, but they must do it. With as much support as we can give.

[Escadrille Ecosse]

2 hours ago, JohnD said:

Quite right, but it works in reverse.   To impose a no-fly means attacking ground assets from the air, radar and missile launchers.   That could/would launch WW3 if done by NATO.   I'm sorry for the Ukrainians, but they must do it. With as much support as we can give.

Yes to this.

[RogerH]

Hi Paul,

 should those migs go up in flight they would be taken out just like that.  They are old classics up against F1 machines.

Earlier today Boris was talking big about improving the refugee withdrawal towards the UK.  We are slow but getting better.

All of the UK would help but what can a single person do.

 

Roger

[PaulAA]

Hi Roger

Indeed. There has been quite a lot in the news about how easily the revisions to the UK's economic crime legislation are circumvented (don't want to cross the 25% ownership threshold? Share your property equally amongst five family members instead of four, etc.)

You're right about the MiGs, but, as Tesco used to say, every little helps. High amongst the long list of difficulties is that Ruskies don't play fair. It would not be an exaggeration to say that they behave like barbarians. It is admirable that the several countries have started amassing evidence of war crimes, but the arch criminal, Putin, is highly unlikely to face a court of law and the prosecutions will be of lowly conscripts or, at best, a general caught drunk and lost.

And whilst there is much talk about regime change, it seems more likely that Putin will remain in power with the overwhelming support of a shamelessly deceived electorate until either he choses to disappear into obscurity or he dies. Then the power vacuum he has crafted will erupt into a dangerous period of instability.

Paul

[JohnD]

Putin is 69 years old.  At that age today, his life expectancy in the UK would be 15.5 years.

But he looks as if he is on steroids.    This video tracks his appearance in the last twenty years - it's 20 minutes long, but skip from the start in 1999 to the end, 2019 and see how his face has puffed out.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SvBcEspEPmU   Combine that with the way he keeps people not in his immediate entourage at some distance - his generals recently and President Macron a short while ago - he would seem to be very afraid of infection, which would be a risk of high dose steroids.

Steroids are used much less then they used to be but still the list of diseases where they are indicated is too long and too varied to suggest how disease might limit Putin's life.    But limited it will be, it's just by how much.

John

 

[JohnD]

Apparently, this may be the making of bitcoin a d other cryptocurrencies.   Doesn't that word sound intrinsically dubious?  Ukraine has appealed for donations in Bitcoin or *Ethereum"(??) and has received many millions of them.  It's useful because it doesn't need to go through bank systems, but that's true of Russia and oligarchs too.

[PeterC]

Sadly no amount of bitcoin are going to defend against Putrid's chemical weapons.