Janner Posted September 3, 2019 Share Posted September 3, 2019 On 8/30/2019 at 3:54 PM, JohnD said: . Predictions are always so difficult, especially about the future, so it's just easier to look back and remember the lies and betrayals, beacuse they tell us what to expect. J. John You'll get no arguement from me regarding predictions and lies. The important thing, as far as Brexit is concerned, is how far back do you look? John Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Janner Posted September 3, 2019 Share Posted September 3, 2019 On 9/2/2019 at 2:58 AM, Chris W said: Hi Phil Currently, citizens of North, Central and most of South America, Australia and New Zealand, together with a bunch of other random countries don't need Visas to enter the Schengen Zone for tourism or business, for up to 90 days in any 180 day period. Do you honestly believe Schengen will be so vindictive as to lump UK citizens in with the Third World, simply because we leave the EU? Of course this comes under the category (like much of Brexit forecasting) of 'nobody knows' but I find it hard to believe. Cheers Chris Chris So much of our future comes under the heading of 'nobody knows', that we will only really see the wood for the trees, once we have a resolution of the Brexit issue, one way or the other. Much of what is spouted, is being offered as fact, when, in reality it is prediction, some informed, some less so and some . . . . .well, lets say; not informed. If anyone can positively differentiate, they should be able to make a fortune, very quickly. John Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnD Posted September 3, 2019 Share Posted September 3, 2019 Somebody has shot Johnson's fox, and now he has no majority on the House! So the future becoms ever more murky! Oh, for Mystic Meg! John Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulAA Posted September 3, 2019 Share Posted September 3, 2019 Somewhere further up the thread, somebody observed that this is just an exercise in hurling opinions from fixed positions and that nobody is going to change their position in the course of the debate (although, to disprove the point, Phillip Lee just did that). So................ where does the UK go from here? Casting an eye from a distant shore, it strikes me that the divisions in the UK are more extreme than they have ever been and never has there been a 'Marmite' PM like BoJo Boris Johnson. Maybe on balance, there is a shift towards grudging support for Brexit, if for no other reason than to get it over and done with and hang the consequences. But how do you heal a rift of almost religious proportion without one side making a seismic shift in their position? On the basis that a GE right now will see Labour given an embarrassing drubbing and the LibDems reaffirmed as the Party of protest only in bye-elections, it seems unlikely that an election will achieve anything more than providing BoJo with a fresh mandate to do as he pleases. Nothing will change, the divisions won't go away and Britain's standing in the world will continue to slide, along with Sterling. There is no question that, for certain participants with their hands on the gas tap, a period of chaos followed by deregulation will provide great opportunities for their investment portfolios. But the rest of the country..? So, looking ahead, what on earth can be done to contain and repair the situation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TR5tar Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 I'd agree, the divisions in the UK are now more extreme than they have been in many years, but I do not see this as something that has suddenly happened because of Brexit. To my mind, this fracturing has been in the making for decades. An extreme shift one way, usually results in an extreme backlash the other way. Thatcher's rule was an extreme reaction to the growing far left of the '70s. One thing is for certain, those that voted for Brexit are clearly unhappy with their lot and want a change. Now, some will argue that those that want to leave have been fooled and that life will be worse, some will say that they want to leave for the "wrong reasons", but none of that really matters, as saying those things will not change minds. Everything that is happening now will make people cling to their views even more, I suspect. I think you are correct, Paul, that if this goes to an election, as Johnson will now push for, he stands a strong chance of returning a reasonably large majority. As I've said elsewhere, in terms of constituencies, almost two thirds voted to leave. If Johnson promises that we will leave, whether with a deal or without, then I do not see him losing. He's already doing well in the polls, with an 11 point lead over Labour. And he might well be forced into a pact with the Brexit party, on the promise of a no deal . . . another extreme reaction because of the situation. I've good friends on both sides of the Brexit fence and typically our discussions are cordial. However, I note that most of my friends who are remainers, when asked, say that they are concerned about the impact on their pensions, share values, and businesses, if we leave. Their focus is nearly always on money and/or business. Like I've said before, I can understand that and sympathise, having concerns about that myself, but it's also the reason why I do not think that many of them can understand the other position. What needs to be understood is that those that feel they have little to lose because they have little to start with, are happy to try something different. Whereas, those that are comfortable understandably wish to maintain the status quo. Again, the counter argument will be that those with little will lose even more if we exit, but of course nobody knows that for sure, and it's not an argument that cuts much ice with the less well off sections of society. You can say that those in powerful positions want Brexit in order to better their investment opportunities, but the argument works the other way too, there are plenty of powerful remainers on an EU gravy train, doing well for themselves out of the EU relationship. Even the sliding sterling argument has two sides ... firms that trade internationally and bill in USD or Euros will be doing nicely out of the current R/E. Whatever happens, there will be winners and losers. What's the answer? How can these divisions be healed? Well, I don't know. I'm not sure that the typical remain voter and typical leave voter can put themselves in the other's position, as they often come from two quite different worlds. Whatever the outcome, I do not see these divisions being healed, not in a long time at least. What I think will probably happen is that in 20 years or so time, we will be facing a global catastrophe that will show Brexit up to be an insignificant event that we shouldn't have wasted our time worrying about, whether it happens or not. None of this is going to make much difference longer term. I'm absolutely with Peter on that. Most in the Western world who have a reasonable standard of living are driven by the desire to get more ... the latest phones and gadget, new cars, nicer houses, and so on. Until there's a stop to that rampant consumerism, that greed for more and better, nothing will change the course we are set on. If we are to do anything more than just delay the problems we face, we'll have to stop buying and thereby stop the need for manufacturing and trade. We have to have something close to a subsistence economy. Enjoy these days, it really is later than you think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulAA Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 7 hours ago, TR5tar said: in terms of constituencies, almost two thirds voted to leave. Darren Not relevant. The country voted as a whole and in a ratio that should have required the vote either to be invalidated or repeated. But we can thank Call Me Dave for omitting the 70% threshold normally required in countries more adept at referenda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogerH Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 What I have noticed during this 3 year house of Commons debacle is that if you shout something loud enough for long enough then it becomes fact even when it is a blatant lie. Corbyn is not a nice person. Roger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnD Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 Corbyn is not a nice person? Compared to whom? To the serial liar, philanderer and fantasist Alexander de Pfeffle Johnson? Or to the arrogant, patronising and just rude Leader of the House, Jacob Rees- Mogg, whose attitude to the crucial debate yesterday in Parliament betrayed his complete disregard for anyone who is "not one of us". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TR5tar Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 42 minutes ago, PaulAA said: Darren Not relevant. The country voted as a whole and in a ratio that should have required the vote either to be invalidated or repeated. But we can thank Call Me Dave for omitting the 70% threshold normally required in countries more adept at referenda. It may not be relevant in the way you are thinking Paul, but it's absolutely relevant if there's a general election now and those constituencies are still in favour of leave. That's the context in which I was talking. Darren Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnD Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 Darren noted that his remainer friends, " when asked, say that they are concerned about the impact on their pensions, share values, and businesses, if we leave." All realistic and honourable reasons, but limited. They ignore far more important reasons to remain. The UK is a European country, by geography, history, language, science and culture as well as personal and commercial interest. And on the last, in a world in which China is challenging America as the largest and most influential economy, to divorce from the next largest would seem, at the very least, unwise. John Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 Looks like Mrs Mays deal is on its way back for a fourth go,and 20 Labour MPs say they wish they voted for it last time... S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nick Jones Posted September 4, 2019 Share Posted September 4, 2019 So what they should actually be working on is to revoke article 50 forthwith to stop the the constant ridiculous time pressure and generally completely buggering the economy. Then we can have a general election and another referendum with sensibly set parameters in a sensible timeframe. Obviously squadrons of pigs and pink elephants are flying around in my head, but really it would be the sane, adult approach. Have had extensive discussions with Swiss relatives in recent days who just cannot believe Britain has brought itself so low so fast. The Swiss understand referendums..... and that having a single figure with a disproportionate amount of power is unsafe. I’m considering trying for asylum.... Await the howls of “undemocratic” from the brexit lot....... ........just flippin grow up, there was NOTHING DEMOCRATIC about the original process and you damn well know it. It just happens you like the result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris W Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 6 hours ago, SP said: Looks like Mrs Mays deal is on its way back for a fourth go,and 20 Labour MPs say they wish they voted for it last time... S Not quite true, you have to read the small print. The Kinnock Amendment (which somehow got through by accident) is for an amended version of the May deal which, as I understand it, includes a permanent Customs Union, guarantees on Workers Rights and Regulatory Alignment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris W Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 4 hours ago, Nick Jones said: So what they should actually be working on is to revoke article 50 forthwith That has always been the only alternative to 'No Deal' but they won't do it because they are career politicians and those that represent Leave voting constituencies fear they would need a new job, come the next General Election. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nick Jones Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 Indeed. Career politicians and their SELF-interest above all else. How we arrived in this mess and why we cannot escape....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnD Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 (edited) Paxman has some suggestions: https://www.channel5.com/show/paxman-why-are-our-politicians-so-crap/ Why are our politicians so crap? It's good to see the old bear back in growling form, after playing the nation's favourite uncle for so long on University Challange! John Edited September 5, 2019 by JohnD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulAA Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 Decent summary of the metamorphosis of the Tory Party in the Economist. Paul Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnD Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 More the imago than the metamorphosis, the now rather than the how, let alone why. More than one commentator, Paxman included, has pointed to the rise of the professional politician, who has risen from local activist, through "spad" to candidate and Member, without any experience in a "proper job". as being part of the rot. Obviously to me, MP's should be well paid for a good job done well, but where is the performance monitoring, the appraisals, that are enevitable in a 'proper job'? The electorate will remove a truely rubbish MP, but there are constituencies where a monkey, who belonged to the right party, would be elected. Don't know about apes - ever tried, Paul? John Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andymcp Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 My wife has a friend that went to school with their current MP. That individual recently stated that they had no particular political aspirations, because "it's 'money for old rope' on the back benches!". Says it all really... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulAA Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 John Being a humanities simian rather than a scientific one, I am apt to point out that I've been blagging it for most of my career and that one day, somebody is going to work that out... So, yes, much like a politician. Paul Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mossmonaco Posted September 5, 2019 Share Posted September 5, 2019 Our glorious leader says he would rather be dead in a ditch than ask for a brexit extension. Sadly he failed to mention if he has a preference for any particular ditch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nick Jones Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 Long queue of people happy to put him in the ditch. Myself included. Seems his brother is a man of some principles at least. That brightened my day a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnD Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 Alexander de Pfeffle Johnson claims to know his Roman history, but he should know Shakespeare's version: Caesar to Cimber, in the Senate: " Thy brother by decree is banished: [read 'MY brother] If thou dost bend and pray and fawn for him, I spurn thee like a cur out of my way. Know, Caesar doth not wrong, nor without cause Will he be satisfied." Immediatley after, Caesar is stabbed to death by the Conspirators (read Rebel Alliance) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PeterC Posted September 6, 2019 Share Posted September 6, 2019 I learned on Newsnight that PM must appoint a new Commissioner before 31 st. If he does not, UK automatically leaves EU. Rather than give warning of prorogation,a strategic error in my view, Boris is keeping quiet on that option. Tories well ahead in the polls, Corbyn unelectable, Boris has little to lose. Peter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted September 7, 2019 Share Posted September 7, 2019 Anyone see Question time on Thursday? Emily Thornberry,(shadow foreign secretary ffs) says Labours` position is to go to Brussels,negotiate a better deal, and then she would come back and campaign for remain. So that`s a big step towards a solution. S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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