Nick B. Posted April 24, 2020 Share Posted April 24, 2020 3 hours ago, PeterC said: http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2020/04/covid-19-vitamin-d-and-ethnicity.html Real data. Second chart shows if serum 25(OH)D3 >75 nmol/L then most pts will get mild COVID Implication section makes for a grim outcoem if D3 supplementation is not introduced Peter While this is interesting, a few things bugs me. Why is this not presented in a peer reviewed paper? I suspect it is because any reviewer would point to the correlation does not nesccecarily indicate causation. Obesity is well associated with vitamin d deficiency, so the chart you refer to could just as well be a question of the fact that obese people are overrepresented in the severely ill COVID19 cases. Still, there is a valid point about ethnicity, but this can just as well be a question about culture, as is suggested for the somali community in Stockholm. Vitamin D is a good thing, and I would always recommend it, but do not suggest it as a cure towards COVID19, or as a mean to protect yourself from COVID19. Soap will probably remain the best cure here. Cheers Nick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PeterC Posted April 24, 2020 Author Share Posted April 24, 2020 6 minutes ago, Nick Jones said: Very interesting. Link should be be emailed to chief medical officer and the Guardian (with each aware the other has seen it) Yes, the clincher and nai in coffin of those who claim COVID might be different in response to d3 from other viruses. Impossible to find emails to CMOs or anyone in authority. News papers likewise...never get a reply. We are writing to BMJ and hope a journalist picks up on it. If one does, the rest will follow... Peter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PeterC Posted April 24, 2020 Author Share Posted April 24, 2020 11 minutes ago, Nick B. said: While this is interesting, a few things bugs me. Why is this not presented in a peer reviewed paper? I suspect it is because any reviewer would point to the correlation does not nesccecarily indicate causation. Obesity is well associated with vitamin d deficiency, so the chart you refer to could just as well be a question of the fact that obese people are overrepresented in the severely ill COVID19 cases. Still, there is a valid point about ethnicity, but this can just as well be a question about culture, as is suggested for the somali community in Stockholm. Vitamin D is a good thing, and I would always recommend it, but do not suggest it as a cure towards COVID19, or as a mean to protect yourself from COVID19. Soap will probably remain the best cure here. Cheers Nick Nick, You are seeing pre-publication work, "in press". The international group I am working with are submitting a Rapid Response to this BMJ editorial: https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1548 - that will answer your questions. D3 deficiency - globally- will eventually be shown to be the underlying cause of COVID morbidity and mortality in otherwise healthy adults. And supplementation or sunbathing will provide the exit strategy. D3 is not a vitamin it is a hormone with widespread effects on innate and adaptive immunity , downregulates renin hence ACE2, and deficiency is associated causally with risk factors for COVID mortality such as BAME, obesity, T2DM and hypertension. D3 is centre stage in COVID, it just takes time to get the message heard. Peter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PeterC Posted April 24, 2020 Author Share Posted April 24, 2020 Our Rapid Response in BMJ https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1548/rr-6 Peter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nick Jones Posted April 24, 2020 Share Posted April 24, 2020 Excellent. Buy now while stocks last...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattius Posted April 24, 2020 Share Posted April 24, 2020 Interesting to see that the french are doing studies with nicotine suppliments to front line workers. Apparently studies in china found 6% of the population who smoked got the virus, as apposed to 27% who were non smokers. And after the Mrs Convinced me to stop smoking after being with her for 10 years! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PeterC Posted April 24, 2020 Author Share Posted April 24, 2020 1 hour ago, Nick Jones said: .......Buy now while stocks last...... Indeed. UK would need about 1 ton per annum to dose at 2000 IU. Global production is 7 tons, mostly made in China. Now that has a familiar ring to it. Peter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PeterC Posted April 24, 2020 Author Share Posted April 24, 2020 20 minutes ago, mattius said: Interesting to see that the french are doing studies with nicotine suppliments to front line workers. Apparently studies in china found 6% of the population who smoked got the virus, as apposed to 27% who were non smokers. And after the Mrs Convinced me to stop smoking after being with her for 10 years! Maybe the missing 21% did not survive to catch the virus. There is a similar lower incidence of Parkinsons disease: smoking roughly halves the risk. I did think of trying nicotine patches, but failed to find a scientific rationale. Peter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattius Posted April 24, 2020 Share Posted April 24, 2020 No one knows with China's figures! How do you take them back off the nicotine! Im surprised Trump hasn't jumped on it, Marlborough is American isn't it? Better than telling people to drink Detol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris W Posted April 24, 2020 Share Posted April 24, 2020 1 hour ago, mattius said: No one knows with China's figures! How do you take them back off the nicotine! Im surprised Trump hasn't jumped on it, Marlborough is American isn't it? Better than telling people to drink Detol! Quite so on the China figures but, as I understand it, there are similar anomalies regarding the representation of smokers in the stats from US, Germany and France. It's not that smokers don't get CV19 its that for some reason, as yet unknown, far fewer seem to require hospitalisation. Maybe Peter is right, they don't make it that far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PeteStupps Posted April 24, 2020 Share Posted April 24, 2020 28 minutes ago, Chris W said: Quite so on the China figures but, as I understand it, there are similar anomalies regarding the representation of smokers in the stats from US, Germany and France. It's not that smokers don't get CV19 its that for some reason, as yet unknown, far fewer seem to require hospitalisation. Maybe Peter is right, they don't make it that far. Maybe it's all the time they spend outside on fag breaks, soaking up the vitamin D! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattius Posted April 25, 2020 Share Posted April 25, 2020 Don't think you can add this one to the VitD bandwagon (im on it, have been for years after the old boys (COPD sufferer) doctors told him about the benefits), They think its nicotine, many countries are trialling NRT (Nicotine Replacement Therapy) on patients with Covid as it seems to be relieving some of the symptoms. As for smokers, apparently smokers are less likely to get it, however if they do get it will have far more complex cases of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PeteStupps Posted April 25, 2020 Share Posted April 25, 2020 54 minutes ago, mattius said: Don't think you can add this one to the VitD bandwagon (im on it, have been for years after the old boys (COPD sufferer) doctors told him about the benefits), They think its nicotine, many countries are trialling NRT (Nicotine Replacement Therapy) on patients with Covid as it seems to be relieving some of the symptoms. As for smokers, apparently smokers are less likely to get it, however if they do get it will have far more complex cases of it. yeah I was being flippant. I doubt the smokers in Wuhan's smoggy winter were getting much UVB. Funnily enough Matt, when I heard about this on the news I thought of your earlier post in this thread about quitting! I was feeling guilty about my 2-a-day habit but now have slightly mixed feelings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattius Posted April 25, 2020 Share Posted April 25, 2020 I throw it back in the mrs' face all the time at the moment! She encouraged me to quit lol 7 weeks today, from 25 a day to 0. Glad I did, but don't tell her that! Have you seen whoohan now? No smog looks pretty, worth a visit, oh wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rod1883 Posted April 25, 2020 Share Posted April 25, 2020 (edited) My Dad was a very heavy smoker (and drinker) for most of his life - probably a continuation of his Naval lifestyle, he served from 1938 to 1960. He stopped smoking (almost) after his first major heart attack in 1978/9 at age 62/63. A second one in early 1998 finished him off at nearly 81. As a child I don't recall him ever getting a cold or 'flu as the rest of the family did at various times. I'm no medic - but I wonder if the mechanism is more direct in that the presence of tar and nicotine laden smoke in the mouth, throat and lungs kills any virus along with the slow destruction of the lungs themselves? That makes me wonder whether nicotine itself via patches would have any effect. Edited April 25, 2020 by Rod1883 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PeteStupps Posted April 25, 2020 Share Posted April 25, 2020 You mean... the old adverts were right?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nick Jones Posted April 25, 2020 Share Posted April 25, 2020 Smoking has killed/crippled far more than C19 ever will...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rod1883 Posted April 25, 2020 Share Posted April 25, 2020 Great ad. Some of the ones I recall from the '60's/70's certainly linked smoking to a healthy lifestyle, if not directly being good for health. Nick - I certainly wasn't advocating any health benefit, merely speculating on a possible mechanism why the otherwise extremely harmful act of smoking might have a beneficial effect on viral respiratory infections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nick Jones Posted April 25, 2020 Share Posted April 25, 2020 Don’t disagree with you Rod. Not on the principle or the mechanism. Irony.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnD Posted April 25, 2020 Share Posted April 25, 2020 (edited) Rod, There are so many stories of the "my gran smoked 90 a day and lived to be 100" variety. But the evidence is that, on average, smoking shortens your life by at least ten years and that every cigarette shortens it by eleven minutes. Everyone is different, thank goodness, and individual response to chemical or viral insult is wide. I don't doubt your father's health, but his story is only evidence that people vary. And response to Covid varies. We are already seeing that, in Europe and America, people of African origin have an increased sensitivity. This has been attributed to poverty, but the carnage among my NHS colleagues meanit s that cannot be more than a contributing cause. The gods help them when it gets to Africa. Also, we are told that anyone over 70 might as well top themselves, but at the same time we hear of many even older people surviving. Your father 'never got a cold'. For my work, I had to be vaccinated against Hepatitis-B but despite three attempts, with different vaccines, I never "sero-converted", developed antibodies against that virus. If this means that I can still get hepatitis, or if for some reason, genetic or otherwise, I am resistant, I don't know, but I must have been exposed, and never got it. (And that is no more evidential than your father's story!) But natural resistance does exist, for instance against HIV/AIDS. A small number of people are naturally resistant and do not get AIDS, even when exposed to HIV. They have a type of cell receptor that is different from the usual, and the virus can't grab it. There may be people like that for Covid. But we know so little about Covid19 as yet. I would not be surprised if resistant people exist. This very recent paper from Nature found no mutant ACE2 receptors, but did that East Asian people had more copies of the gene in their genotype. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41421-020-0147-1 That might mean more receptors, and so easier access of the virus to their cells. John Edited April 25, 2020 by JohnD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rod1883 Posted April 25, 2020 Share Posted April 25, 2020 Thanks for the comments John. I wasn't trying to suggest that my Father was one of those apocryphal (if that's the right word) examples of fantastic health despite smoking heavily. He was very fit as a young man, but smoking and drink were a major factor in his heart attack at age ~62 I'm sure. He stopped smoking cigarettes then, but moved bizarrely onto those cigarillo things albeit only a few a day. I'm just coming up to 61 so close in age to his first heart attack, a sobering thought. I've never smoked, apart from trying it as a youth as almost everyone does, and wouldn't suggest anyone takes it up to avoid Covid-19! I do drink too much though - but as was said on another thread recently - if I miss a few years of poor quality life in a care home because of it, so be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PeterC Posted April 25, 2020 Author Share Posted April 25, 2020 5 hours ago, Rod1883 said: Thanks for the comments John. I wasn't trying to suggest that my Father was one of those apocryphal (if that's the right word) examples of fantastic health despite smoking heavily. He was very fit as a young man, but smoking and drink were a major factor in his heart attack at age ~62 I'm sure. He stopped smoking cigarettes then, but moved bizarrely onto those cigarillo things albeit only a few a day. I'm just coming up to 61 so close in age to his first heart attack, a sobering thought. I've never smoked, apart from trying it as a youth as almost everyone does, and wouldn't suggest anyone takes it up to avoid Covid-19! I do drink too much though - but as was said on another thread recently - if I miss a few years of poor quality life in a care home because of it, so be it. Greeks , in Greece, smoke like chimneys and rarely get coronary heart disease. Its the sun, and lots of D3 Its in Dr David Grimes' book and might be mentioned on his blog: http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/p/vitamin-d-and-cholesterol-importance-of.html Not that I'm advocating tobacco abuse. Peter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattius Posted April 25, 2020 Share Posted April 25, 2020 Is anything not fixed by D3? Do you sell the stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PeterC Posted April 25, 2020 Author Share Posted April 25, 2020 3 minutes ago, mattius said: Is anything not fixed by D3? Do you sell the stuff Its no good for freeing a seized clutch. Not selling, buying. Check out VitaminDWiki for diseases that are D3-influenced. Its a looong list. Peter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GT6MK3 Posted April 26, 2020 Share Posted April 26, 2020 Kaplan’s Law of the Instrument? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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