May's Brexit Plan

[AB|W]

Paul,

Oh come on,

Point 1. it has kept the politicians from interfering with other things, surely a good thing in all countries!!

Point 6.  and ignoring a referendum would not have wounded the Brexit camp? The referendum caused a division that was all too evident to those of us that live here A fifty -fifty'ish split which ever way it went 

Alan 

[PaulAA]

Hi Alan

6. That's my point. Interesting that this week's release of historic Cabinet documents has revealed that John Major considered holding a referendum post-Maastricht and abandoned the idea because it was not possible to formulate a question that addressed the issue. The UK's elected MPs should have done their job three years ago and obviated the need for a responsibility-ducking referendum. Crapulous shower.

Paul

[Scooter]

2 hours ago, PaulAA said:

Not an exhaustive list, but these components of an on-going disaster occur to me:

1. the amount of Parliamentary time wasted on the subject over the last 30 months - time which could have been spent on more urgent and useful subjects

2. the amount of taxpayer money spent on public servants' research, errands, flights to negotiations, etc., etc.  Do you know how much Brexit has cost so far, even though it hasn't happened?

3. the loss to public services of money re-directed to Brexit preparations

3. the damage caused to the UK's reputation worldwide (and don't underestimate how important this is)

4. the damage caused to trading statuses around the world

5. the opportunity it has given arch Brexit proponents like the slug Crispin Odey to make huge profits by betting against the UK and British industry.  Ditto Rees-Mogg

6. the damage to British society of a wound that will take a long time to heal

etc., etc.

So utter negativity and nothing positive as far as you can see?

Very positive move that will bring huge rewards

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/12/29/britain-become-true-global-player-post-brexit-new-military-bases/

[Scooter]

26 minutes ago, PaulAA said:

Hi Alan

6. That's my point. Interesting that this week's release of historic Cabinet documents has revealed that John Major considered holding a referendum post-Maastricht and abandoned the idea because it was not possible to formulate a question that addressed the issue. The UK's elected MPs should have done their job three years ago and obviated the need for a responsibility-ducking referendum. Crapulous shower.

Paul

 

Nothing to do with Majot poohing his underpants at the sight Of such a backlash against Maastricht in Denmark, the Police opened fire and wounded 11 protesters?

[JohnD]

12 hours ago, Scooter said:

So utter negativity and nothing positive as far as you can see?

Very positive move that will bring huge rewards

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/12/29/britain-become-true-global-player-post-brexit-new-military-bases/

As I'm not a subscriber to the Telegraph, I can't read the rest of that no doubt illuminating article, beyond the statement by the minister for defence that there will be two new military bases for the UK "in the Caribbean and South East Asia" and his bracing exhortation to the UK to "stand tall" and "be optimistic".      Please Scooter, tell us.  On what confident facts does he base this invigorating sermon?

The UK's arms sales were worth £1.5 billion in 2017, but £1.13 billion of that was to Saudi Arabia.   None of the Caribbean nations can afford so much, and SE Asian countries may look to China or India for arms.   Even if arms exports were doubled, the GDP of the UK is £2.4 Trillion so armanents are less than 0.1% of that.    I can reference my sources but it would be boring.

John

[AB|W]

A cynic’s view.

 

Anyone else noticed the similarity between the Brexit and Remain camps and  between differing religions?

 

All parties occupy entrenched positions

All promise a better hereafter life

No party can offer any definitive evidence for future promises.

No parties leaderships have 100% support from their own supporting staff and are not without conflicting viewpoints.

No parties devotees can envisage a tolerable future life under the “other” regime.

Each party relishes asking the other unanswerable questions.

As time passes the centre ground between parties gets further apart.

 

But religious differences have proved to be so easy to resolve a Brexit solution should therefore present no problem.

 

Alan

 

 

[Nick Jones]

I can see what you mean.

However, there is crucial difference.

Remain provides a known and proven way forward. Therefore there is evidence based on previous experience, it is “safe” and no one can say that they don’t know what they will be getting, whether they like it or not.

Brexit does not and requires faith, zeal, call it what you will. “Evidence” for what might happen thereafter is distinctly lacking and subject to a wide spectrum of incompatible “facts”, so the principle difference between remainers and  brexiters is the interpretation or belief in whether or not brexit means death or paradise.

Ive yet to see any even marginally convincing for paradise! But then I’m also a non-believer in religious terms. Perhaps there is a link with brexiters more likely to be religious than remainers?

[oldtuckunder]

10 minutes ago, Nick Jones said:

Perhaps there is a link with brexiters more likely to be religious than remainers?

They certainly seem to think that miracles will happen 

[Scooter]

7 hours ago, JohnD said:

As I'm not a subscriber to the Telegraph, I can't read the rest of that no doubt illuminating article, beyond the statement by the minister for defence that there will be two new military bases for the UK "in the Caribbean and South East Asia" and his bracing exhortation to the UK to "stand tall" and "be optimistic".      Please Scooter, tell us.  On what confident facts does he base this invigorating sermon?

The UK's arms sales were worth £1.5 billion in 2017, but £1.13 billion of that was to Saudi Arabia.   None of the Caribbean nations can afford so much, and SE Asian countries may look to China or India for arms.   Even if arms exports were doubled, the GDP of the UK is £2.4 Trillion so armanents are less than 0.1% of that.    I can reference my sources but it would be boring.

John

Its all about influence

 

Singapore is very keen to get RN ships forward based there

The worlds changing, and the declining the EU (33% of global trade when we joined the EEC in 73, now a paltry 15% and falling), will be a backwater in the coming new world order

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Scooter]

1 hour ago, Nick Jones said:

Remain provides a known and proven way forward. Therefore there is evidence based on previous experience, it is “safe” and no one can say that they don’t know what they will be getting, whether they like it or not.

The passengers on the decks of Titanic were safe compared to those that were in the lifeboats:

until the ship sank.

The EU is locked into decline - its sinking economically, and its far right is on the march.

Not so happy days ahead

http://time.com/5395444/europe-far-right-italy-salvini-sweden-france-germany/

 

 

 

 

[oldtuckunder]

What I’m sure Alan probably meant to say is

“gosh, it’s really surprising that someone who is making a point of not being originally British, so has presumably benefitted from an inclusive immigration policy, is taking such a pro-brexit position associated with rather more restrictive policy, and failing to answer requests for reasoned argument to support his case. Further, someone in this position might still have the luxury of a second nationality and somewhere to escape to if the crap really starts flying, which most us don’t enjoy.......”

Edited December 30, 2018 by Nick Jones
Momentary loss of cool by original author

[PaulAA]

Steady, Alan.  He's out to wind up the situation and bring the conversation all the way down to his level.  Keep one salient fact in mind (indeed, the one and only piece of verifiable information he has shared through his long and painful contribution to the discussion): he has spent good money on a Telegraph subscription.  This tells you all you need to know about him and his, erm, narrow view of the world.

Paul

[oldtuckunder]

That was steady, Sheesh the idiot should be glad I can't be assed to waste the time having a go at him  

[Rod1883]

Please, keep it civil.

I'm on the leave side of the debate but I don't feel the need to swear at people with views and beliefs different to mine, and I want to be able to engage as friends on all sorts of other topics and threads here too.

[David Butterworth]

15 minutes ago, Rod1883 said:

Please, keep it civil.

I'm on the leave side of the debate but I don't feel the need to swear at people with views and beliefs different to mine, and I want to be able to engage as friends on all sorts of other topics and threads here too.

+1

Dave

[Nick Jones]

Rod, 

I am genuinely curious as to what you see as the concrete advantages of brexit to the UK?

 

Andy,

Not sure what the “EU in decline” statement is based on?

Far right pressures on the EU are being encouraged and nurtured directly and indirectly by external forces and mainly immigration related. The same is happening here, though perhaps less attributable to the far right. If the wheels were to come off the EU project I’m not sure that being notionally outside it would make much odds seeing as we are outside the Euro anyway. I also think that with the UK in it and playing a positive role, the chances of the wheels coming off are lessened. Stable prosperous neighbors have got to be a good thing.

I think your lifeboat analogy works against you as we would be in the lifeboat come brexit, but our ship will quite likely just sail on without us.

[PeterC]

The concrete advantage of brexit is the UK restores sovereignty over its laws and borders. And sterling is safe. Mainland europe is in state of poltical flux brought about by huge inequalties between nations , the result of a failiign euro currency experiment.  If UK were to reverse direction now and Remain the pressure from Brussels for UK to join the euro and ditch sterlign will be ramped up, to bolster the euro. And UK would be outvoted 27:1 on that.  Brexit protects sterling.
Peter

Edited December 30, 2018 by PeterC

[Nick Jones]

Can’t agree on Sterling. The EU can’t force the UK to join and given recent events, even were we to remain, no politician is likely to feel lucky enough to try to travel that road for quite some time to come. 

Brexit has hardly been good to Sterling so far. Pretty much 20% reduction on the day the result was announced and more since. I see no prospect of anything other than significant further falls should brexit progress in any form, with no-deal the worst. Sadly the much trumpetted export “surge” that was supposed to be the benefit of this has not materialised, with only sales to the EU gaining much ground......

I’m not sure I want the rich bastards driving this project to have sovereignty (via their old school mates in government) over our laws, especially not those related to employment, environmental or personal freedoms.

[PaulAA]

Peter

The UK has sovereignty over its borders.  It's just that successive UK govts have seen fit not to enforce them, in order to bring in the workforce they seem unable to supply internally.  References above for the relevant clauses in the 2004 agreements.

I'm genuinely unclear why you feel that Brexit will give greater stability to Sterling.  The UK has a permanent exemption from the obligation to join the Euro.  Any fluctuation in the fortunes of the Euro will affect Sterling whether the UK is in the EU or not.  If anything, having a place at the table will bear some modicum of influence to bear on the UK's not inconsiderable investment in the ECB.  Even if the UK leaves, it has been clearly stated that it will take 30 years to repay the capital tied up in the ECB.

Even if trade between the UK and Europe falters (which the majority of sane Brexit supporters seem keen to underline will not happen), Europe will remain the UK's principal trading partner and subject to fluctuations in the strength of the Euro.

Please explain what I'm missing.

Paul

[Adrian Cooper]

31 minutes ago, PeterC said:

If UK were to reverse direction now and Remain the pressure from Brussels for UK to join the euro and ditch sterlign will be ramped up, to bolster the euro. And UK would be outvoted 27:1 on that.  Brexit protects sterling.

Surely the 1992 Maastricht treaty enshrined our opt out from the Euro? and I have never heard anybody suggest that the other 27 nations could overturn this. Where are you getting this from Peter?

Adrian

[Scooter]

11 hours ago, PeterC said:

The concrete advantage of brexit is the UK restores sovereignty over its laws and borders. And sterling is safe. Mainland europe is in state of poltical flux brought about by huge inequalties between nations , the result of a failiign euro currency experiment.  If UK were to reverse direction now and Remain the pressure from Brussels for UK to join the euro and ditch sterlign will be ramped up, to bolster the euro. And UK would be outvoted 27:1 on that.  Brexit protects sterling.
Peter

 

 

The EUs dirty little open secret.....

the Euro in its current form is unsustainable, they need a ECB and a common budget and fiscal policy across the block to ride out the next recession.

whats that slogan again that led to the last ‘Brexit’

.no taxation without representation?

What could possibly be wrong with the unelected and unaccountable EU Commission setting fiscal policy and taxation.

[Scooter]

11 hours ago, Adrian Cooper said:

Surely the 1992 Maastricht treaty enshrined our opt out from the Euro? and I have never heard anybody suggest that the other 27 nations could overturn this. Where are you getting this from Peter?

Adrian

Qualified majority voting has been introduced by the EU specifically to deal with that issue of opt outs.

Junker makes no secret of the fact, the U.K. remains, we will be forced into the Euro

[Scooter]

On 12/31/2018 at 7:30 AM, Nick Jones said:

Andy,

Not sure what the “EU in decline” statement is based on?

Far right pressures on the EU are being encouraged and nurtured directly and indirectly by external forces and mainly immigration related. The same is happening here, though perhaps less attributable to the far right. If the wheels were to come off the EU project I’m not sure that being notionally outside it would make much odds seeing as we are outside the Euro anyway. I also think that with the UK in it and playing a positive role, the chances of the wheels coming off are lessened. Stable prosperous neighbors have got to be a good thing.

I think your lifeboat analogy works against you as we would be in the lifeboat come brexit, but our ship will quite likely just sail on without us.

 

The EU is dying out, literally, they aren’t having children. 

Britain isnt, our population by 2040 will hit 100 million and we will have the biggest GDP in Europe

Germany and Italy are the worst hit, the populations of both are in deep decline.  That’s why Merkel threw open the door to a couple of million refugees, it seemed like an easy quick fix to the crippling labour shortages, but hardly any proved to be employable. Now, in a heartbeat, Germany has millions of dissafected inmitpgrants that will need supporting.

trade? 

The powerhouse of the Eu economy has been its car industries.... well, we are moving into a post personally owned IC transport age and they missed that boat,  and most EU manufacturing relies on protectionist tarrifs to survive. We’re looking at AI, the next industrial revolution to boost productivity avd keep the lights on, the EU? They are Trying to legislate it out of existence.

 

Europes future? 

Why are we in the Middle East avd Africa stirring up wars? To bring democracy?

No, were sticking our fingers in the dyke trying to stave off the inevitable, mass migrations from Africa and the middle east to Europe on a scale that’s biblical ‘ not a few million, were looking at tens of millions in the coming generation.

Those regions are not creating wealth and jobs, but they are literally breeding like rabbits, their populations are exploding.... avd they have no future. So, they look across at EUtopia, fat, rich and happy, with it’s safe countries, comprehensive welfare states and think, I want some of that.... and there is nothing to stop them coming. See the massive societal change migration brought to dull but happy Sweden.

but Europe is aging, its working population is shrinking, avd with all the migration, that’s a double whammy, more welfare needed for their greying populations, more welfare for their expanding migrant populations, but less money to pay for it all.... see the Gilets Jaunnes fed up with being taxed to death.

Europe will fall, people laughed at my old boss when he wrote ‘the new goths are coming” in 2006....

<link to racist site removed by admin>

they're not laughing now, the Magreb and Middle Easy are being swept by post industrial warfare, just as he predicted. Millions are in the move, just as he predicted. At least outside the EU, with our by European standards very strong armed forces and the English Channel, we have some chase of throwing up the drawbridge.

Yes, we will be Airstrip One and we will side with Oceania... we’re already signing the treaties with our old friends outside Europe.

and that’s before we consider the no longer sleeping Dragon in the Far East. The EU will be collateral damage as the US and China fight for global economic and military hegemony.

The global tipping point is @2040 

All the rich  ‘Western’ nations outside the EU, like us, are rearming like mad, but the EU isn’t. 

Theres a storm coming - but the EU thinks it can stick its fingers in its ears and go lalala and it won’t effect them.

Edited January 4, 2019 by GT6MK3
'cos we don't do racism here

[PaulAA]

I think it's you living in LaLaLand, Scooter.

And, just to put your references in perspective, according to Wikipedia:

American Renaissance (AR or AmRen) is a monthly white supremacist online publication founded and edited by Jared Taylor.  It is published by the New Century Foundation, which describes itself as a "race-realist, white advocacy organization".

If you think that quoting a white supremacist magazine is appropriate, I think this is the last time I will bother responding to your unsubstantiated drivel.

[AB|W]

Am I the only one to believe that a declining world population is the only thing that will save our planet? 

The pyramid selling theory of more people, more growth, needs more resources (including food) to feed the increasing numbers, as if no one has realised that Earth has only so much resource, and can process only so much pollution. Whether the Earth can support eight billion or twenty eight billion soles is an open question, but I feel it is getting pretty stretched right now. 

I'm old I don't think I need more, and more, and more  youngsters to support me, that might mean I die at eighty and do not "survive / exist" in a horrendous under-resourced nursing home until my nineties; but a UK population of forty five to fifty million seemed pretty good, the sixty'ish million we are now at is bursting the seams.

An aging population is a good thing l not a problem, given time it will solve itself - that's what aging does. Births on the other hand will be a around for a century or more.

China abandoned its one child policy, perhaps we need to take up the challenge.

 

Alan