2024 election result

[zetecspit]

Well, a mixture of no surprises (labour winning a huge majority) and a few shocks.

Looks like labour have not really improved their vote share since the last election, and worse than 2017. So in reality they haven't improved.

On the other hand, there has been an exodus of blue voters. I expect some have moved to labour, but with similar numbers of labour voting reform. LibDems had a massive comeback, and now exceeding their PR goal. Of course, the biggest disappointment is farage actually getting elected, along with lee anderson. And 2 others who I can't be bothered to look up.

Will rishi stay for a few months? I hope so, so the blues don't have a stupid knee-jerk reaction and elect another lettuce. They need somebody with backbone to provide a decent opposition. They need to learn from post-corbyn labour and present a united front, keeping their squabbles away from the media. Ed davey is s decent bloke, and I hope he manages to make some points, but I don't see him as a strong/robust leader. And I certainly do not see the libdems forming close alliances with the blues as it ruined them last time they tried.

The more stunning part of this election is the wipeout of the SNP in Scotland. They make the blues look good! Maybe our Scottish friends have realised that they need to have a govt that looks after the everyday running of the coutry rather than focussing on independance. That boat has sailed for a long long time. 

Anyway, I am interested in seeing how things pan out in the next days, weeks and months. The biggest issue that the reds now have is actually living up to expectations. Unlike when blair took power, there are no likely big pots of money on their way, and all the silverware has already been sold off.

Enough of my ramblings for now. The weather is grim, and I need to go and do some work.

Edited July 5 by zetecspit

[Nick Jones]

Yes, agree it’s more a case of the Cons having their asses handed to them as payback for 14 years of appalling “governance” than Lab winning on any merit apart from being the best known of the non-Cons.

Heartened to see the strong performance of the LDs. They’ve scored really well around these parts including our constituency with “our” man taking almost half the vote from the ever-useless Fysh.

JRM out, Truss out, Shaps out - good riddance 

Mordaunt out - might be a blow to any re-emergence of a semi-moderate Con party. Far too many nasty, frothing loonies left though.  Braverman, Patel…..

SNP…?! WTF?! Total rout! I think perhaps a reflection for a general distaste for politicians behaving badly. Phil and Colin will no doubt have views on this. Not sorry to see the independence movement faltering. Would be very bad for both sides IMO.

Certainly Lab inherit a shit show…. 

As for the Fartarge… Clacton fail intelligence test and get what they deserve…. Hope they weren’t expecting a useful constituency MP!

[JohnD]

"Looks like labour have not really improved their vote share since the last election, and worse than 2017. So in reality they haven't improved."

That parameter is often  used by those who wish to denigrate their opponents, but in our 'first past the post', binary electoral system, there is little variation.   This chart is from the House of Commons Library, so exemplary authority!    

http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7529/assets/eb76d0e7-b039-4e8c-8ae0-4e068573219e.png

As it shows, the share of the vote between the major parties rarely varies by more than 10%, even when the result is a wipe out for the loser.    The exceptional 1931 result was for a "National Government", a coalition of left and right in the face of global economic disaster.  This time Labour got 34% and Tories 24%, keeping to the rule.

That the UK, in a year of general elections around the globe, has broken the trend of movement to the right, even when the smears still leak through in as many as 4 seats for Reform, must be a verdict on how the Tories have mishandled the country in the last 14 years.  In a  display of arrogant entitlement to rule without regard for the people, culminating in the disgrace of the Prime Minister being convicted of offences by the State and by Parliament, they have presided over the near destruction of the British economy, infrastructure and public services, all in the name of private profit.    They have taken the advantage of their position over too many people, and I would say that this election was not won by Labour, but lost by the Tories.

Because who would really want to win this poisoned chalice?  Expectations of a new Labour Government are great, and the needs and cost of restoration are huge, while the resources to 'deliver' on them are tiny.   The NHS alone requires nearly £190 BILLION extra, just to maintain itself (Health Foundation,  https://www.health.org.uk/publications/long-reads/how-much-funding-does-the-nhs-need-over-the-next-decade)   I do not fear - I hope - that this Labour Government will grasp the nettle and raise personal taxation so that new investment can take place.    Of course, for those who can afford it, when currently the UK matches the average for Europe of 45% to that in the leading countries of the EU, where the rate is 50-55%.     At least then I will feel that I am making a contribution to my country's future, rather than riding a residual wave of previous prosperity.

John 

Edited July 5 by JohnD

[RedRooster]

3 hours ago, zetecspit said:

 

Will rishi stay for a few months? I hope so, 

Guess he's yet to join Sideways and read your post. 

[zetecspit]

57 minutes ago, RedRooster said:

Guess he's yet to join Sideways and read your post. 

Seems he didn't get the message. 

I wonder if he will also step down as an MP, trigger a by-election so penny mordaunt can enter the leadership game of twister. 

2 hours ago, JohnD said:

"Looks like labour have not really improved their vote share since the last election, and worse than 2017. So in reality they haven't improved."

That parameter is often  used by those who wish to denigrate their opponents, but in our 'first past the post', binary electoral system, there is little variation.   This chart is from the House of Commons Library, so exemplary authority!    

http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7529/assets/eb76d0e7-b039-4e8c-8ae0-4e068573219e.png

 

 The NHS alone requires nearly £190 BILLION extra, just to maintain itself (Health Foundation,  https://www.health.org.uk/publications/long-reads/how-much-funding-does-the-nhs-need-over-the-next-decade)   I do not fear - I hope - that this Labour Government will grasp the nettle and raise personal taxation so that new investment can take place.    Of course, for those who can afford it, when currently the UK matches the average for Europe of 45% to that in the leading countries of the EU, where the rate is 50-55%.     At least then I will feel that I am making a contribution to my country's future, rather than riding a residual wave of previous prosperity.

John 

Just done some simple maths. We are lookind at £500 PA for every person in the country. Translate that to working people, it around £1200 for each of them. 

Personal taxation needs to fundamentally change. We really need nobody with under £20k income paying tax. And in fairness, increasing tax rates. I am not tax expert, do old folk get extra tax allowances? If so that needs to stop. I have an expectation that "unearned income" is an easy target for raising tax. And will likely include private pension money. 

But we will see what happens....

As an aside, I hope that the voting age does not come down to 16. Most of the school leavers I have taught are hardly able to wipe their own ar$e, let alone conside what is best for their future. In many ways a quick "quiz" before you can vote (to confirm you are of sound mind) would help matters, probably see the likes of the Reform vote plummet. 

Edited July 5 by zetecspit

[JohnD]

Sound mind?  After a totally unnecessary ID check before you may vote (impersonation has never been a problem in the UK)?

What level would you set that at, and what test would you propose?  There used to be property, gender and education barriers to voting.   

And recall, you may choose a life partner at 16 years old and get married.  Voting for a party that might government for five years would seem  lesser choice!

Joh 

[zetecspit]

1 hour ago, JohnD said:

Sound mind?  After a totally unnecessary ID check before you may vote (impersonation has never been a problem in the UK)?

What level would you set that at, and what test would you propose?  There used to be property, gender and education barriers to voting.   

And recall, you may choose a life partner at 16 years old and get married.  Voting for a party that might government for five years would seem  lesser choice!

Joh 

Came in for a cuppa as sorting a gargantuan woodpile is knackering!

There are some people out there who whought voting for Brexit would stop all immigration. So a basic test of understanding what they are voting for. But too "difficult" 

Maybe there should be a points system for being given a vote. Earned through work, volunteering or whatever. Just ideas. 

There are a great many marriages which last less than 5 years, so that is certainly not a good example. But honestly? very few 16 year olds are capable of making sensible decisions, and are likely to be easily swayed by gimmicks. Saying that, gimmicks seem to work on all ages. 

 

[Nick Jones]

Education is key. The right education (probably not Eton on the evidence )

Meanwhile, this made me LOL. Marina is a national treasure…..

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jul/05/rishi-sunak-tories-truss-rees-mogg-shapps-liam-fox

[Nick Jones]

4 hours ago, zetecspit said:

confirm you are of sound mind

Heh…. While I absolutely get where you are coming from, people voting while disgracefully, wilfully ignorant really grinds my gears….. I don’t think this is workable or than via the rather long-term route of education.  Critical thinking lessons for the population and strong sanctions (public flogging?) for lying politicians and journalists (hanging where both?) I suggest would be helpful. I do not like this “the truth is what I say it is” world that has been normalised by the Mendacious Fatberg and the Orange Nightmare.

[JohnD]

Critical thinking? That was what you used to go to University to learn, not History, or PPE, or even Languages.  More than a third of youths do today, jolly good thing, but I fear that even they learn a trade or profession, not how to be Eddie "You're a nasty piece of work, aren't you" Mair, or Jeremy "Did you overrule him?" Paxman.

In England you can vote if you are:

registered to vote in the constituency
of voting age – 18 years old on polling day
either a British citizen, a qualifying Commonwealth citizen or a citizen of the Republic of Ireland
not be subject to any ‘legal incapacity’ to vote – prisoners serving a sentence for a conviction cannot vote in UK parliamentary elections and neither can peers in the House of Lords.  (Jolly good thing!)

These rights were fought for, over hundreds of years, culminating in the Representation of the People (Equal Franchise) Act 1928, which gave the vote to all over 21 years, and was passed by a Tory Government, Baldwin's!     When previously only women over 30 might vote, because their juniors were incompetent/wilfully ignorant/incapable of basic understanding (choose patronising term).    I fear that to seek to exclude any, except convicted prisoners and Lords of the Realm, is equally patronising, as well as elitist.       
Sorry, but I feel strongly that universal suffrage is a basic human right.   

John

Edited July 5 by JohnD

[thebrookster]

12 hours ago, zetecspit said:

Maybe our Scottish friends have realised that they need to have a govt that looks after the everyday running of the coutry rather than focussing on independance

That's a rather biased view of both Scots and the Scottish political system there,  Clive?

I would suggest that independence has not been seriously put on the table for quite some time. It's still there, but when you consider that it was for that entire purpose the SNP was created, of course it will rear up every so often so that we don't forget about it.

However, on most other fronts SNP have performed pretty reasonably. Child poverty is vastly reduced. University education still a fraction of the cost of English system. Railways nationalised. NHS in far better shape than English or Welsh system. Eye tests and dental, free. 

Indeed, I can't think immediately of any major area where England is significantly outperforming Scotland, so your insinuation that the Scottish Government has not been taking care of the day to day affairs is somewhat unfounded.

Honestly, I think you will find that the section of population who are fixated on the Scottish Independence ideology have probably voted SNP regardless, I don't think that has had any effect on this election. They will have voted the same as always.

12 hours ago, Nick Jones said:

SNP…?! WTF?! Total rout! I think perhaps a reflection for a general distaste for politicians behaving badly

What I suspect has had more of an effect is the recent ferries fiasco, which has been really predominant in the news this last couple of years, the whole debacle with Nicola Sturgeon/husband/finances, and the recent falling out with the Greens.

On top of that (and this is purely speculation on my part) I think there is a growing realisation that voting SNP for a GE is self defeating. As a country, we simply don't field anywhere near enough MP's to have any meaningful impact in Westminster, and therefore sticking with the other main parties may prove more effective in the long run?

On top of all of that, you have the general disdain of politics coming back in play. Scotland enjoyed a flush of enthusiasm after the last referendum which lasted a while, however now nothing has really happened for some time folks have gone back to the blasé "what's the point" attitude, and hence voting has returned closer to traditional trends.

[zetecspit]

9 hours ago, thebrookster said:

That's a rather biased view of both Scots and the Scottish political system there,  Clive?

 when you consider that it was for that entire purpose the SNP was created, of course it will rear up every so often so that we don't forget about it.

 

That is what I meant. It is their main purpose, but they do seem to have gone quiet on the matter, and despite your suggestion, I believe the current SNP leader made comments that a big election win would be a mandate for another independance vote. I wonder if a big defeat is a mandate to drop the idea?

And as you point out the rather "turbulent" recent history with leaders will have disappointed many. It will be interesting to see where the money raised for the independance campaign actually went. Apart from a camper van.... And indeed, the ferries and other issues may well have coloured peoples views. But something so important should have been dealt with properly, not mismanaged and with many many millions of £ disappearing and untracable. 

As to spending, scotland spends about 15% more per capita BUT the GDP is 10% less than england (22/23 figures). All thanks to the Barnett Formula. Which I do not understand at all, unless it is a bribe to mute calls for independance? Maybe the Scottish voters have realised that, and learnt from Brexit that going independant would lower living standards considerably. 

But like everything, we shall see how it all pans out over the next 5 years. 

 

[Nick Jones]

10 hours ago, thebrookster said:

However, on most other fronts SNP have performed pretty reasonably. Child poverty is vastly reduced. University education still a fraction of the cost of English system. Railways nationalised. NHS in far better shape than English or Welsh system. Eye tests and dental, free. 

Indeed, I can't think immediately of any major area where England is significantly outperforming Scotland

Agreed. I was saddened by the downfall of Sturgeon, as immediately prior to and during Covid, she seemed to have so much the better grasp of statesmanship and the concept that government is for looking after the people than any of the blithering idiots (especially the fat, straw-haired scarecrow) in Westminster. Also irritating in her (wee Jimmy Krankie) way I’ll agree, but at least I didn’t feel the urge to shoot the telly just because her face was on it…..

Stronger together….

[thebrookster]

3 hours ago, zetecspit said:

But like everything, we shall see how it all pans out over the next 5 years. 

 

Even less than that for Scotland, next two years will be telling enough.

[PaulAA]

Bit late to the party... I was collecting Cadet No.2 with his newly-minted Mechanical Engineering degree.

The aspect that I find astonishing is the statistical summary of absolute voter numbers and their preferences, in comparison with the 2019 election.

Extracting the main two parties' figures, and assuming that Reform is just the far right version of the Tories, the comparison is startling:

Tories 2019: 13.97m
Tories + Reform 2024: 10.92m

Labour 2019: 10.27m
Labour 2024: 9.73m

After the clusterf**k own goal of Brexit, on top of disasterous mismanagement of practically every situation, policy and emergency, the voting public still favoured the Right and Far Right over a re-invented centre-left Labour Party. And only 60% of the electorate considered it worthwhile voting?!?

Got to say that I find that beyond understanding...

[zetecspit]

I was going to say Reform are not just the far right of the Tories. And I have just read their policies (how many people haven't read them? important to know what they are actually up to) and it soiunds simple and will appeal to a great number of voters, not just on the right. 

It talks of curbing immigration (extensively), cutting waste in the NHS with 30bn extra being spent. The more subtle ones are getting rid of net zero pledges, chasing tax dodgers and generally kicking the idea of "woke" into touch.  All those things will appeal to huge numbers of Labour voters, especially the areas like the "red wall" that turned blue with Boris, and back to red. Yes, Reform are going to be gamechangers in the UK political system IF (a very big if) they can stop themselves imploding and their lieutenants from saying really stupid stuff. Which is a worry. And they will appeal even more if Labour can't deliver the promised changes PDQ. They are off to a poor start with the new chancellor already stating the bleeding obvious "there is not a lot of money" which she knew way before taking office (the public finances are available to everybody)

 

[JohnD]

Yes,Paul!

First , congrats to the new graduate!  Tell us about us plans?

And yes,  60% turn out was disappointing in the circumstances.  I rather vented my obsession about voting last time, and I think that, given the struggle and sacrifice needed to achieve it,  there is a case for voting to be compulsory, a Civic Duty.   It is in many European countries, and in Australia - since 1918!

John

[zetecspit]

12 hours ago, JohnD said:

Yes,Paul!

First , congrats to the new graduate!  Tell us about us plans?

And yes,  60% turn out was disappointing in the circumstances.  I rather vented my obsession about voting last time, and I think that, given the struggle and sacrifice needed to achieve it,  there is a case for voting to be compulsory, a Civic Duty.   It is in many European countries, and in Australia - since 1918!

John

But how does enforcement work? A fine? And the other aspect is that the 40% have no engagement and therefore better they don't vote rather than being forced to tick a box. 

Having spent a few years working amongst "tradesmen" of various levels, it is scary what many believe. From Covid to being fake, taxes being theft (some claim to have never paid taxes in their lives) and generally being terrified of stuff they don't understand. Like politics. Bear in mind these are people earning good livings (very very good if they don't pay tax etc) and there is a whole layer of people "under" them who are even less engaged with the "system". I truley believe many of "us" live in a bit of a bubble of (dare I say!) "middle classness" where intellegent conversation occasionally happens, we pay our dues and see the big picture. But know very little about the traditional "working classes" and how they think. I didn't really know until I worked with a few long term. Some I have worked with on/off for 10 years now. I really is a very different world. As to the occasional "labourer" who turns up to shift stuff around, even the hardest looking of them almost doff their caps to the skilled tradesmen. They know their place in the pecking order!

[Nick Jones]

5 minutes ago, zetecspit said:

Having spent a few years working amongst "tradesmen" of various levels, it is scary what many believe

Yes. This. At the pig place last Monday  I had a conversation with the owner of the company who do the installation works on the site. He was mourning Boris and singing the praises of Farage. Had seemed like an ok human up to that point……. He seemed surprised by my view that hell was too good for them and we agreed to differ.  Happily I don’t think his “team” won on election day.

Large number of tradies pay little to no tax. There’s also a lot of claiming (over claiming) for every little allowance (PPE, home washing of work-wear being just two examples), often by specialist tax agents who take half the proceeds. HMRC don’t (can’t hope to) verify any of this.  Billions are taken. I understand change is coming.

[zetecspit]

7 minutes ago, Nick Jones said:

I understand change is coming.

I doubt there will be much in the way of change. It is "very hard" to nail the small people down. Everybody reckons the big boys are the real nasties, but the ingrained tax avoidance/evasion amongst sole traders etc adds up to a vast amount. But chasing thousands of pounds rather than millions seems barely worthwhile, until people start getting heavily penalised (ie HMRC allowed to go back 7 years add interest etc) and that scares the rest into being honest, or at least more so. 

Maybe the taxmen need to be on commission. That would incentivise them.

[RedRooster]

Working with a couple of tub thumpers at the moment who think Farage is the new messiah 

As they say you can't argue with stupid. 

[JohnD]

Some very worrying stats from the election.  My crib is the article in this morning's Observer by Robert Ford (p.42).  Overall, Reform got 4 million votes and 5 seats, while the Greens got 2 million, and four seats.     They got 14% of the vote share, and of the 600 they entered, 100 Reform candidates came second on the ballot.  

The support for Reform was much higher than their five seats represents.   I do not want to invoke Godwin's law (the one about mentioning the leader of the Nazis), but to draw parallels between Germany history and now.  Here, my crib is the Wiki. In 1928, when the National Socialist Party first stood for election in Germany, they gained 2.6% of the vote and 12 seats in the Reichstag.  Very comparable to Reform.   Only four years and three general elections later, in the last German free election before WW2, they got 33% of the vote and 288 seats, becoming the official opposition.  The rest I need not remind  you of, except that at the same time but some ten years behind Germany, the National Union of Fascists was gaining parallel results in the UK.    If Farage and his crew become an opposition party then the parallels grow frighteningly closer.

As said above, there is an undercurrent, more a riptide, of far right opinion in Britain today, that also parallels that in Britain in the '30s.      Historians and biographers offer many examples of this, not least Edward 8th, notorious for abdicating but also for his fondness for the Nazis and appeasement. (Not that I accuse his great-nephew of anything like that)   As also said above, we - that is this self-selected group, our friends and family - may be a sort of elite, isolated by education, position and relative wealth from the mass of the people. I have long wondered what I would have done, if I had been in a similar position in 1930's Germany?    I fear that to protect my family and my position, I would have gone along with the zeitgeist, and said and done nothing to oppose the rise of the Nazis.  Their opposition was fragmented, perhaps for similar reasons. Therefore, as a widowed man, with children relatively far away and well established, I feel that I should do more to oppose the rise of Reform and all it represents.   This 2024 General Election is a start, as if I had anything to do with Labour winning.   

John

[PaulAA]

Indeed, the statistics are worrying (comparing the '19 with '24 election results, as above). This should have been a seminal election that gained considerable engagement, but didn't. By comparison, we (counting myself amongst the activists) managed to stir reasonable (but not exceptional) engagement at the Polish GE last autumn, with a frequency of just under 74%. As is the issue in practically every country with some vestige of democracy, the Right finds its active support amongst the uneducation, the disenfranchised and other members of society's fringe, and those easily brainwashed by the lies, distortions, exaggerations and conspiracy theories pumped out to hook them. I share Clive's doubts about making voting compulsory - the failure to teach critical analysis at Secondary School level is creating a generation which relies entirely on widely available and unsubstantiated claims for its information and opinions.

The UK's problem is undoubtedly similar to ours - the more extreme the view, the greater the motivation to vote. The challenge is undoubtedly compounded by the prevailing centrist apathy and the astonishing level of new-voter non-engagement (as illustrated in the interview with Park Life / Pond Life music festival attendees).

Farage and Reform in general will morph in the way that Fascists always have, from understanding brother/friend to pernicious dictator of belief. The structure that is apparent in American politics, of the super-wealthy using Populism as a vehicle to benefit its very selfish and sociopathic ambitions, is unquestionably migrating to Europe, but simple sound bites for simple people (racism, lower/no tax and the disingenuous concept of 'freedom') disguise their real ambitions.

That Farage now toes the Trump/Putin line should be an enormous red flag, but it seems not to matter to those with more personal investments in his success.

Are we f*cked? Yes, we are.

[PaulAA]

17 hours ago, JohnD said:

Yes,Paul!

First , congrats to the new graduate!  Tell us about us plans?

 

Thank you, John!

Enormously proud of the lad - he is starting a graduate programme with GE's renewable energy division at the beginning of August, coincidentally based in Warsaw. But he has observed that they share premises with the Polish aviation research facility and has already been speculating on a migration to aerospace engineering.

He has his MSc course already identified in Vienna for next year, which he intends to do through the medium of German.

Paul

[Nick Jones]

4 hours ago, zetecspit said:

Maybe the taxmen need to be on commission. That would incentivise them.

I think you’ll find some are already. Incentivised in some way anyway.

Brother is heading up a new department to deal with the agents. He’s got an eye-watering target…. Pretty sure he’s not on a percentage though!

4 hours ago, RedRooster said:

As they say you can't argue with stupid.

Ain’t that the truth. He’s really not the messiah, he’s a nasty, opportunistic con-man.