Brexit deal

[Nick Jones]

Thanks.  I like France very much, though not been properly for a few years now.

[zetecspit]

15 hours ago, Sprint95m said:

There is a Scottish Parliamentary election scheduled for next May, Clive.

If, as seems likely, the pro independence parties achieve an overall majority, then another independence referendum may be happening quite soon?

 

Which currency to use is not such a big deal now apparently.
Scotland has about 1/8th of the UK economy but only 1/12th of the population, but obviously no one knows how Brexit is going to impact on that.

The big difference this time around will be that the threat from Westminster to veto EU membership no longer exists,
therefore the vote will be portrayed as a straight choice between the EU and the UK.
Spain is the one EU state possibly inclined to object to Scotland joining the EU, simply because of the widespread support
clearly seen amongst Scots for an independent Catalan state, but then again Scotland is very important to Spain's economy?

 

Even for someone like me who believes you should try to make the best of the situation you are in,
an independent Scotland does have a pretty compelling appeal.

 

 

Ian

Ian, thank you for that.

But does Scotland not need permission from the UK to hold a proper, rather than advisory, referendum? It is likely to get a little murky at best.

The economy v population thing is interesting, and spurred on to find out more, tax revenues are "about" midway between the 2 figures. Also worth a read (if you are suffering from time on your hands) https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/tax-and-devolution  especially the tax raised per capita. England just leads Scotland, with NI and Wales lagging 20% behind. Historically, the North Sea has been beneficial to Scotlands tax income, but not currently so, and no idea if it will again? So an independant Scotland would benefit from not supporting NI and Wales. 

In fact if you look at this https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-8027/#:~:text=London%2C South East and East of England raised the most,per person in 2018%2F19. it shows how each UK region is doing. My pet rant, London and the SE are the big earners for the UK, and yet have about the poorest investment in communities. My hometown has the crappiest swimming pool and leisure facilities I have seen...

I don't really understand how Catalan compares with Scotland, as it is a region rather than a country. Could be a bit more more "Passport to Pimlico"? but I know there are strong feelings in Italy about cutting the country in 2. A few years ago an Italian referred to Southern Italy as "Africa", but language difficulties meant we didn't get further into that, and concentrated on Beer and bizarrely, playing darts while he videoed my Spitfire WSM. 

[thebrookster]

47 minutes ago, zetecspit said:

But does Scotland not need permission from the UK to hold a proper, rather than advisory, referendum? It is likely to get a little murky at best.

Aye, to hold a "proper" referendum Scotland needs the permission from Westminster. Given the current, errmm, feelings coming out of Westminster, that would seem to be rather unforthcoming. 

This is something that does concern me, before there had not been any overt signs of anti-scottish (Welsh/Irish/etc) sentiments floating around. It was there, indeed always has been in some quarters, but there was never anything really tangible to make an independence move appear beneficial. However, over Brexit it has become more obvious that Westminster really only cares for itself, and indeed several policies proposed over the last year or so suggest an intention to claw back various devolved powers, and that is raising quite a storm in some areas. I have seen multiple (serious) suggestions of resorting to violence to achieve independence, which is something I cannot see ending well at all! 

So I sincerely hope that Westminster shows some common sense and simply allow a referendum to go ahead, civil up-risings are the last thing we need anywhere in the UK.

Although, if you check the relevant act for the Brexit vote, you'll see that was actually defined as an "Advisory" referendum, so if it is good enough for the goose.................

[zetecspit]

It would be a shame if Scotland left, but I don't think it would have a huge effect on the rest of the UK, and may even be beneficial for a fiscal point of view over the next few years. 

If violence erupted, even very isolated incidents, I can't seeing it being at all helpful to "the cause", and would pee the vast majority off. 

Likewise, an advisory referendum may be a 2 edged sword. What would happen if the vote was remain? It is possible. Likewise if leave, then what? Try to apply pressure on Westminster? There is little  desire for a proper referendum  from anybody apart from the SNP. After all, it would mean the remaining UK would be massively dominated by the Tories, rather than the delicate balance we have enjoyed all my life where power changes every decade or so. And the EU would not accept Scotland unilaterally declaring independence. Far too contentious and likely to result in mayhem.

All interesting thought exercises.

For now, I w=think we need to see how the new relationship with Europe pans out over the next year or 2. And hopefully the covid pandemic will soon be history. (Not helped by a friend. Self isolating family as one had symptoms, and positive test on 23rd. Rest of the family tested negative. But said friend felt unwell for a couple of days, but won't get retested in case it is positive.... and has decided it is OK to go out and walk the dog and stuff, because he is being careful. I did get blunt, but he reckons it is too inconvenient if he gets a positive test as his kids are already fed up at home. Multiply by a million, and that is why we are screwed for some time)

[Nick Jones]

On 12/26/2020 at 10:30 AM, Nick Jones said:

So Brexiters......

As I have said before, one of my principle resentments of the whole thing is that my children were born as citizens of the EU.  Free to travel, live and work across a large, diverse and mainly prosperous area.  They have had this taken from them before (in one case) they were deemed old enough to vote.  Now, just at the time when they are starting their careers, that door has been slammed in their faces.  I have also had this taken from me even though, so any dreams/plans I might have had to retire somewhere with a warmer winter climate have been greatly complicated (at best).

There are many other losses that have come from this miserable, unnecessary and artificially manufactured "problem" - not least the truly monumental amount of taxpayers money and civil service time expended (and still to be expended) on it.  Resources that could have been so much better spent.

Can one of you, any of you, all of you, please list the actual, tangible benefits that brexit and this wonderful new deal will bring us?

 

Still waiting.......

Could it be that the list is rather short?

[Nick Jones]

Still waiting…..

maybe this is why

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jan/31/brexit-lies-tory-billionaire-guy-hands-uk-eu-economy