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When leaders don't


GT6MK3

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6 minutes ago, PeterC said:

How ungrateful. Without brexit there'd be no AUKUS and Oz would be even more vulnerable to China's ambitions than at present.

Oh Lordy, geopolitics through an imperial lens.

Have you considered (just as one tiny part of that particular alliance), how you get your satellite surveillance of the big bit of Asia known as China.  Look it up, then figure out how you’d do it without Pine Gap.

Thanks for the chuckle though, and the random link to Brexit.  

 

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1 hour ago, Escadrille Ecosse said:

I spent my last 20 years working in the oil and gas industry. The last half of that as the Asset Engineer responsible for the LPG facilities at Grangemouth, the pressurised spheres, refrigerated storage tanks, refrigeration plant, LPG ship berth, and the pipelines connectine the plants. With tens of thousands of tons of LPG it was and still is the largest non-nuclear risk in Scotland with a huge domino potential. It would make the Bruntsfield disaster look like a bad Guy Fawkes night.

As part of keeping that plant safe we were continuously doing risk analysis of the plant, systems and inspection and maintenance procedures. Assessing the probablitity and consequences of doing or not doing anything. Probablility multiplied by consequence being the risk. In the case of my job of keeping the LPG in the tanks the worst case consequences were truly huge and without shutting down the plant and doing without LPG (and the natural gas from the North Sea) unavoidable so the only way forward was to reduce the probability to as low as practicable.

I was talking about this with my companions over dinner while we were in Spain the other week and one made an excellent point about risk analysis in engineering. If you do the analysis and a potential consequnce of some course of action is unacceptably high, eg it blows up, kills people and almost puts your company out of business (BP and the Gulf of Mexico say) you don't go ahead unless you can demonstrate that the probability of that is vanisingly small.

And EVEN THEN you don't proceed unless

  • there has been a rigorous and peer reviewed analysis of the potential prize to be gained
  • a detailed plan of how you will proceed to ensure it all goes properly
  • a procedure to accurately assess how things are going against plan and how to raise the alarm if they drift off
  • a contingency plan on how to get back to where you started if things start going pear shaped.

And the regulator, in this case the HSE, will come along from time to time and make sure you are doing all this or someone is going to end up in court, and possibly jail.

If Brexit was being managed by a business it would never have gone ahead. Nothing to do with the potential prize or the political benefits but simply because there was zero rigour applied beforehand, no planning and no risk assessment. You certainly wouldn't have got a few grand loan from the bank.

Post facto is not by definition a plan.

The above is not a political statement, it's a safety management comment. I would suggest that when we're looking at something that affects 65 million people now and into the distant then some rigour is warranted.

 

Surely the risk analysis should have been made before Grangemouth was allowed to grow to such a large size with "all eggs in one basket". Likewise the risk in joining the common market was not fully analysed by Heath : loss of sovereignty to Brussels  was not foreseen. With brexit the unknowable risks in handing power to Brussels have been reduced. The analogy  between Brussels and Grangemouth is apt: disasters will happen, but not as predicted.

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1 hour ago, PeterC said:

Surely the risk analysis should have been made before Grangemouth was allowed to grow to such a large size with "all eggs in one basket". Likewise the risk in joining the common market was not fully analysed by Heath : loss of sovereignty to Brussels  was not foreseen. With brexit the unknowable risks in handing power to Brussels have been reduced. The analogy  between Brussels and Grangemouth is apt: disasters will happen, but not as predicted.

Aye, but as I always tried to tell my kids, just because someone did something less than optimal before isn't justification or excuse for doing the same now you know better. 

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1 hour ago, GT6MK3 said:

Oh Lordy, geopolitics through an imperial lens.

Have you considered (just as one tiny part of that particular alliance), how you get your satellite surveillance of the big bit of Asia known as China.  Look it up, then figure out how you’d do it without Pine Gap.

Thanks for the chuckle though, and the random link to Brexit.  

 

The Five Eyes and all that. Good thing too.

Not sure it's imperialist view, the imperialists of old would probably have made a better job of being polite about joining AUKUS.

I suspect the big difference with Brexit is not that we joined AUKUS but that without Brexit when we did join we would probably have had a PM capable of dealing tactfully with our friends and neighbours and reminded Mr Biden of his manners too which would probably have avoided all the unnecessary handbag fights.  

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I'm just thinking about the UK leaders over the last 40 years.

Boris - not to every bodies taste and appears not to think more than any steps ahead.

St.Theresa  (if only) - just simply a waste of space. Doing a job she did not believe in.

David Cammoron - who

Desperate Gordon

Tony B Liar - blood on his hands - but he could have been great

Ian & Duncan Smith  and Vague Haig  - not at the top but what were people thinking..

John Major - too much Curry

Maggie - who sold off the silverware and destroyed traditional industry causing to many deaths

 

What a bunch

 

Roge

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Roger,

Duncan Smith and Haig did not lead the country, they were merely failed Tory leaders.  All that the Tories could summon up from the Pit of Doom.   That the current incarnation IS the Leader of the Country is just evidence that confirms Private Fraser - "We're all doooooomed!"

Nick, 

That  Mogg is Minister for Government Efficiency shows that the Tories are terminally unaware, when the Hon.Jim Hacker, Baron Hacker of Islington, KG, PC, BSc, Hon. D. Phil  was Yes,  Minister of Administrative Affairs. 

Edited by JohnD
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1 hour ago, JohnD said:

Roger,

Duncan Smith and Haig did not lead the country, they were merely failed Tory leaders.  All that the Tories could summon up from the Pit of Doom.   That the current incarnation IS the Leader of the Country is just evidence that confirms Private Fraser - "We're all doooooomed!"

 

Hi John,

That is what I said - sort of -  Ian & Duncan Smith  and Vague Haig  - not at the top but what were people thinking.

 

Roger

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On 2/18/2022 at 8:02 PM, Nick Jones said:

Oh, they would, in the single market anyway.  Once the current bunch of stupid and unpleasant children playing at government have been sent away.  Who in their right mind would do a deal with them?

But it's impossible for the current administration or probably the general Tory picnic due to the loss of "face".  It's disappointing that Labour still appear terrified of the idea - I really don't get why.

I think Labour's lack of desire to discuss either Brexit or the single market is down to lack of clarity over what caused their dramatic loss in the last general election. The blame officially is laid on their Brexit stance, which isn't unjustified, but a fair chunk also came down to their choice of leadership (Corbyn, who's rhetoric and stance put off a fair chunk of middle-of-the-road voters), and their published plan to fund major public initiatives through corporate tax (putting the willies up rich media bods, whose coverage leading up to the election became remarkably partisan).

Disentangling the effect of those three issues is going to be practically impossible, so the only safe route is to assume all of them were important and not to repeat them next time. Hence Starmer, the lack of Brexit rhetoric, and I would guess the lack of a clearly published financial plan targeting the super-rich. Which is disappointing as the reason Labour won my vote at the last general election is precisely because they had published a financial plan that seemed to stack up. Or, even, any sort of plan at all. I suspect the reason the Conservatives didn't publish a plan is because they never had one in the first place, and don't intend to make one, judging how they've lurched from crisis to crisis since the election.

  

On 2/19/2022 at 8:02 PM, JohnD said:

You may recall, Peter, that the EU originated in the European Iron & Steel Community, an admittedly idealistic project to join those industries in Germany and France.  The hope was that thereby war would become impossible between two nations who had already slaughtered each other, twice.

The EU is, basically, a pacifist organisation.  Continental armies were the last thing that it has ever considered.    National ones, that cooperate, of course. To suggest otherwise is to suffer a basic misunderstanding of the objectives and purposes of the EU.

More than ever, the current circumstances in Ukraine require this point to be shouted from the rooftops and truly hammered home. For almost all of the modern period, France and Germany had been at each other's throats. Franco-Prussian war, WW1, WW2. All the other surrounding conflicts which affected the balance of power in mainland Europe. These two nations have been murdering each other for hundreds of years, building enmity upon enmity, hate upon hate.

After the civilised world finally said 'enough' after the latest and greatest bout of murdering, the process that would eventually produce the single market and the EU was started. A process of economic entanglement such that one country would be physically incapable of warring against the other without immediately ruining itself. This, quite naturally, also involved a large amount of cultural bridge-building, which is what brought us to the EU and the world we live in today where Germany and France (once as divided as the US and Russia are today) are the fastest of allies.

As the world violently severs all economic ties to Russia in a bid to halt Putin and his cronies' imperial vision, it's worth remembering that this process of pacifism driven by economic entanglement has been dealt a great blow. Much has been said already about how economic ties between Russia and Europe have helped fund Putin's war machine, and no doubt they have, but it's worth remembering that strong economic ties make war harder to justify, not easier.

We can't forget just how successful the wider European project has been in preventing conflict, nor fail to open its arms back to Russia when the time is right for change. I hope the UK will be there to help make that momentous decision, despite the efforts of a short-sighted political elite and a misled public to ensure our seat at the table is forfeited.

Edited by BiTurbo228
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Just read Heseltine's article - Gosh, dripping with irony, then sarcasm then just pure venom!  That's what you get in the Tory party.

Not that you don't get it in Labour! EG Ernie Bevin, on hearing that a colleague was his own worst enemy, "Not while I'm alive!"

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11 minutes ago, JohnD said:

Gosh, dripping with irony, then sarcasm then just pure venom!  That's what you get in the Tory party.

Presumably you'd agree that the recipient is deserving of his treatment...?

Frankly I think it pretty flippin' amazing that Heseltine is writing in the Guardian, but  I guess the Torygraph doesn't serve his kind of Tory any more.

21 minutes ago, BiTurbo228 said:

For almost all of the modern period, France and Germany had been at each other's throats

Fair amount of cross-channel, err..., "jousting" also.  But yes, absolutely.

Sitting here thinking that what the world really needs is a "mad dog" task force for when a specific leader (and his enablers)  starts running sideways and foaming at the mouth (classic rabies symptoms) and needs to be speedily sent on to the next world for the safety and comfort of the rest of the planet.  Clearly agreeing the guidelines and tipping points would provoke endless debate, but we do appear to have a current example where a big proportion of the world would agree the time has come!

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D'ye think that the Torygraph would print Heseltine's diatribe?

 

Some leaders do.   See the Guardian (again) on the Ukrainian Tax Office's attitude to captured tanks and military equipment. "No need to declare for tax purposes". 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/03/ukraine-authorities-say-seized-russian-tanks-dont-need-to-be-declared-on-tax-form?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other&fbclid=IwAR2oxSzGHyTiS-Zd95Hf0hUd8BKzwW5uWIbCvsFv6A5RZHhoA3-x07VhUec

Zelenskyy was a actor/comedian.   Sounds as if he has a talent common in Ukraine.

Edited by JohnD
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3 hours ago, JohnD said:

D'ye think that the Torygraph would print Heseltine's diatribe?

 

Some leaders do.   See the Guardian (again) on the Ukrainian Tax Office's attitude to captured tanks and military equipment. "No need to declare for tax purposes". 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/03/ukraine-authorities-say-seized-russian-tanks-dont-need-to-be-declared-on-tax-form?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other&fbclid=IwAR2oxSzGHyTiS-Zd95Hf0hUd8BKzwW5uWIbCvsFv6A5RZHhoA3-x07VhUec

Zelenskyy was a actor/comedian.   Sounds as if he has a talent common in Ukraine.

Love it. :biggrin: Laughter is the best medicine

 

4 hours ago, BiTurbo228 said:

After the civilised world finally said 'enough' after the latest and greatest bout of murdering, the process that would eventually produce the single market and the EU was started. A process of economic entanglement such that one country would be physically incapable of warring against the other without immediately ruining itself.

 

4 hours ago, BiTurbo228 said:

As the world violently severs all economic ties to Russia in a bid to halt Putin and his cronies' imperial vision, it's worth remembering that this process of pacifism driven by economic entanglement has been dealt a great blow. Much has been said already about how economic ties between Russia and Europe have helped fund Putin's war machine, and no doubt they have, but it's worth remembering that strong economic ties make war harder to justify, not easier.

The world immediately before 1914 was probably more economically entangled than it would be until the turn of the 21st century and politicians, economists and business leaders of the time also said that would be enough to prevent war between the major powers, or at least prevent serious escallation. The idea that it was big business that drove us to WW1 is a myth.

Then in the run up to WW2 we saw the opposite with trade barriers errected around the world as a reaction to the Depression.

Neither economic approach prevented war. The issues were political and it was a failure to deal properly with these political issues, sending out mixed and ambiguous signals, that ultimately led to both conflicts.

Ukraine is unfortunately little different in that respect as the civilised world tut-tutted as Russian freedoms eroded, elections were rigged, the press muzzled, critics murdered at home and abroad, Georgia was invaded, then Crimea, then Donbas... and what went on in Syria, Belarus and Kazakstan and is going on in the Sahel and West Africa with Wagner Group mercenaries.

And yet all the time continuing to plow funds into Russian corporations and consume ever more Russian oil and gas - even at the expense of countries like Ukraine.

And have public figures in the west look the other way at best - Angele Merkel - and at worst cozy up to Russian money, not just the Conservative party but people like Gerhard Schroeder, and Scotlands Russian puppet - and self confessed sex-pest - Alexi Salmonella.

The west - or at least a critical mass of it's leadership - took it's eye off the ball and assumed that simply by engaging economically with Russia all the bad stuff would go way of it's own accord and everything would turn out fine. Money is just the enabler. Politics is the cause and the cure, up to and including the lethal variety unfortunately.

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Back to our own Gang of Thieves.    The Health Minister Sajid Javed, has announced that his solution to the post-Covid - well, during Covid, actually - waiting list problem is to divert long waiters.   To other Trusts first, as if any were flush with staff who are not near burnt out, or resources after being under funded for years.   None have short waiting lists.

Then, he will divert them to private practice, or "the independent sector" as he prefers to say.   Paid for by the NHS, so without cost to the patient, but why support private practice?  Diverting the funding to that sector just further deprives the NHS!   

This will further establish Private Practice as part of healthcare in the UK, eroding the position of the NHS.  Which, of course, is the objective.    

John

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22 minutes ago, JohnD said:

This will further establish Private Practice as part of healthcare in the UK, eroding the position of the NHS.  Which, of course, is the objective.

John, couldn't agree more with the first two bits. This last bit though implies there is sufficient competence to actually have a long term plan. Or just any plan at all. :thumbsup:

This to me is more like the usual rhetoric from this 'government' to give impression that something is going to be done. Y'know like the plan for post Brexit Britain which five years on from the vote is still even to be articulated, let alone enacted. Reacting to foreseeable events as they unravel before your eyes is not a plan.

Plan: An orderly, detailed scheme, method, etc, for attaining an objective

Or the latest fustercluck after Boris and his equally self-serving incompetent suck-up Pritti declared how Britain was there with open arms to help the refugees from Ukraine. It's beyond embarassing but worse is the additional and entirely unnecessary human misery being heaped these people.

The balance I try to mainain on these things deserted me on this occasion. I found myself shouting at the television as I saw the plight of those being made to travel from Calais, to Brussels, Paris.

I'm greatly vexed. If I had a boat I'd be tempted to do something and deal with the consequences later.

Edited by Escadrille Ecosse
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Hi Colin,

 we must have been having a duet in shouting at the TV last night.

The UK is being made to look very uninviting to very very desperate people.

I'm a retired aerospace engineer and spent my life being controlled by planning.

I am also an ex-Scout leader and spent many years telling the scouts that you ONLY succeed by planning.

You can't rely on luck or stupidity when things are important.

 

Roger

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2 hours ago, RogerH said:

You can't rely on luck or stupidity when things are important.

Very true, but unfortunately the concept of planning (or even truth) is completely beyond the stupid and nasty toddlers pretending to run the country.

I can’t watch the TV news, the sight of the various vacuous smirking heads puts me in grave danger of a cardiovascular accident :pinch:

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  • 1 month later...

wont make any difference they will carry on, they believe the rules don't apply to them or any Tory member.
Our democracy has been always depended on unwritten rules and behaviour, this lot have broken that for ever.
I am deeply depressed by our government, the Tories now behave like a dictatorship, ignore the rules and change the law to suit them and they mates and destroy anything that they disagree with.

Mike

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Yes. Completely without shame. 

I’ll be writing to the pointless windbag that is my MP once again (I’m well into double figures now) this evening to ask whether he’s submitted his letter of no confidence yet. 

I might write to a few other self-servative MPs too, just to fatten their inboxes…..

If Johnson stays, I think it’ll do the tories serious long-term damage. Perhaps it’s better he stays in the long run :ermm:

They won’t be keen to swap him as their plan B has blown his case at least 3 times this week…..

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Agree. Just written to our completely useless MP.... Dont even think she has ever visited Cambridgeshire or even knows where it is...
I actually think the electorate will not forget this and I hope the opposition parties will continue to remind people about it.
Every opposition party poster should include the picture of the Queen sitting alone during the Dukes funeral while No 10 was partying. 

BTW I know someone who was thrown out of University for organising a party during lock down and fined £10k, I do hope they apply this law to Mrs Johnson..... 

Mike

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