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Covid 19, novel corona virus. Split from off-grid thread


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All this raises an interesting point - and NO I am not gloating.

The Gov't has spent and is spending vast fortunes on TRying to defeat the virus and keep people either employed or not in poverty.

The Virus requires two jab. The gov't is now going against the manufacturers and authourising agency by  increasing the dead line from 21 days to 12 weeks.

Can the second jab be of a different type !!!   Who will keep a check on this.

The Virus mutates and there is concern if the vaccine will do any good.

In late 2019 I started self medicating. In late December 2019 I came down with what I believe was the Covid19 before it hit the headlines in the UK - I ended up with a seasonal bad chest for which my Doc gave me Amoxicillin and Prednisone

This sorted me - I know that anti biotics will not cure a virus - BUT it WILL sort out the side affects caused by the virus.

I had a serious operation during lock down and went shopping every two weeks to Sainsbury's.

I wear a face mask.

This Winter I have had some aches and pains, short duration pin prick head aches, and snuffles in the nose.

However before anything really gets going it is nipped in the bud and gone.

As you know I follow Prof. Pete's regime of the Hormone VitD3.   5000IU/day.

This does not attack the virus, whether mutated or not, but helps my immune system to fight whatever is going on.

You can take ANY manufacturers version of D3

And the mutants will perish

Far toooooooo many experts have poo poo'd this approach and the only answer that they can come up with is that it has not had massive trials - for science people that is a rubbish answer 

 AND it will never have these TRials because of vested interested.

I appreciate that a good number of people can't take VitD3 - so go buy a sun lamp - that may work, who knows.

 

People talk of conspiracies - something naughty is going on.

 

Roger

 

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Well I’m still spamming because I think it’s important...... and this seems to bear it out Pity he takes half an hour when it needs 10 minutes tops but anyway..... Trial in a 

Earlier, I posted a link to the Royal Society symposium where several global experts spoke about Covid  and the vaccine.  They only had an hour and the speakers could answer a few questions from their

My work are very much blazing their own trail on this one: we've just been told that, unless pregnant or high risk, everyone must be in the office or will be marked as 'unauthorised leave' with subseq

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38 minutes ago, RogerH said:

All this raises an interesting point - and NO I am not gloating.

The Gov't has spent and is spending vast fortunes on TRying to defeat the virus and keep people either employed or not in poverty.

The Virus requires two jab. The gov't is now going against the manufacturers and authourising agency by  increasing the dead line from 21 days to 12 weeks.

Can the second jab be of a different type !!!   Who will keep a check on this.

The Virus mutates and there is concern if the vaccine will do any good.

In late 2019 I started self medicating. In late December 2019 I came down with what I believe was the Covid19 before it hit the headlines in the UK - I ended up with a seasonal bad chest for which my Doc gave me Amoxicillin and Prednisone

This sorted me - I know that anti biotics will not cure a virus - BUT it WILL sort out the side affects caused by the virus.

I had a serious operation during lock down and went shopping every two weeks to Sainsbury's.

I wear a face mask.

This Winter I have had some aches and pains, short duration pin prick head aches, and snuffles in the nose.

However before anything really gets going it is nipped in the bud and gone.

As you know I follow Prof. Pete's regime of the Hormone VitD3.   5000IU/day.

This does not attack the virus, whether mutated or not, but helps my immune system to fight whatever is going on.

You can take ANY manufacturers version of D3

And the mutants will perish

Far toooooooo many experts have poo poo'd this approach and the only answer that they can come up with is that it has not had massive trials - for science people that is a rubbish answer 

 AND it will never have these TRials because of vested interested.

I appreciate that a good number of people can't take VitD3 - so go buy a sun lamp - that may work, who knows.

 

People talk of conspiracies - something naughty is going on.

 

Roger

 

Roger, Yes something naughty and NICE does seem to be hindering D3.  And as the sun  returnes in April the vaccines will get the plaudits for falling C-19 severity when in reality its D3 levels rising. The crunch will come next November or so. David Grimes explains:

http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2020/12/

The Open Letter has ever-growing international support, but has so far failed to get mainstream press.https://vitamindforall.org/letter.html  Interesting to see how much D3 the signatories take personally !!

We can only hope that DoH is maintaining radio silence while it buys in the ton or so of D3 needed to give the entire UK population a decent daily dose for a year.

Peter

 

 

 

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People are shouting about VitD, and that there is a conspiracy against it!     Lets do a little experiment.     In the US, where do the BAME peole live?

Largest Ancestry by U.S. County - Vivid Maps

That's right, the South East of the country.     

And where are the Covid cases in the US?   

Photo: John Hopkins University stats

That's right, there are more cases in the South East of ther copuntry   There is a strong geographical bias in the ethnicity of the people of the US, which is associated with the same bias in Covid prevalance.     Which shows how much more deadly is Covid for BAME people.

But let us make another proposition.   We know that VitD is synthesised in the skin with UV light from the sun.     Those BAME people are more sensitive to Covid because their pigmentation blocks more of the UV light, and they are more likely to have low VitD levels than white people in the same latitude.   So there will be another geographical bias, north to south, but that bias does not exist.  Therefore the proposition is disproved.

John

 

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4 hours ago, zetecspit said:

John, Covid and the vaccine will undoubtedly behave like many other virus's so predictions will be based on real data. But with a level of uncertainty. (but of course the Pfizer vaccine is all new, so may have some quirks?)

I read this morning that India makes 60% of the world vaccines on a normal day. And expect to make 50million doses of the Oxford vaccine a month, ramping up to 100million a month. I guess they have the labs to make it, unlike poor old UK who outsource everything. However, I expect they will be selling much of their production off, as they have said 300million of the most vulnerable citizens will get the jab this year. Where will the other billion doses go? 

 

I'm not vaccine expert, but you say that "predictions will be based on real data."  Not on the interval between Covid vaccine doses it isn't  - there is no data.

And "where will the other billuion doses go?"   Oxfiod-AstraZeneca  has said that their vaccimne will be sold to developing counteries at "cost price, in perpetuity".  They will make no profit on any sales.     And their vaccine can be distributed via established "cold-chains"  of fridges there, when ther Pfizer cannot.   However, even at $3 a dose (Pfizer, $20, Moderna, $30!) many countries may not be able to afford the milluions of doses needed, and the Western World, for its own protection, should consider funding them.

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10 minutes ago, JohnD said:

But let us make another proposition.   We know that VitD is synthesised in the skin with UV light from the sun.     Those BAME people are more sensitive to Covid because their pigmentation blocks more of the UV light, and they are more likely to have low VitD levels than white people in the same latitude.   So there will be another geographical bias, north to south, but that bias does not exist.  Therefore the proposition is disproved.

John

 

Going to counter that John, with the observation that the areas shown with higher COVID rates tie in more with population density.

And also, many of the reports I have seen regarding Vit D3 do not suggest that it stops you catching it, simply that having a normal or enhanced level reduced the effects. So looking at a display of positive cases wouldn't be altered by Vit D levels, surely?

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I agree with Nick, Miles!   I remember those minimally significant "courses" from when I was working.  Fire safety IS important, anywhere, but the minutiae of which extinguisher?   Lifting, but vaccinated will all be ambulant.  Etc.   

I had to do some similar courses, in injection technique (I used to be a mean needle wielder, but not intramuscular!), in the management of anaphylaxis (severe allergic shock), and the checking procedure to ID and consent the vaccinatees.  All most necessary and practical, and I've been most impressed by the organisation shown by my local GP practice that is leading the project.

Different drummers, I fear!

 

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Hi John,

my survival must be a natural cock-up.

A great majority of the dead in SE Asia had extremely low levels of VitD (whatever the correct name is)  and thus their immune system was rock bottom.

If they lived where they lived why did they not have high levels.   Perhaps the sun was too much and they stayed in the shade and and covered up.

 

Wood for trees comes to mind.

 

Roger

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5 hours ago, JohnD said:

I'm not vaccine expert, but you say that "predictions will be based on real data."  Not on the interval between Covid vaccine doses it isn't  - there is no data.

And "where will the other billuion doses go?"   Oxfiod-AstraZeneca  has said that their vaccimne will be sold to developing counteries at "cost price, in perpetuity".  They will make no profit on any sales.     And their vaccine can be distributed via established "cold-chains"  of fridges there, when ther Pfizer cannot.   However, even at $3 a dose (Pfizer, $20, Moderna, $30!) many countries may not be able to afford the milluions of doses needed, and the Western World, for its own protection, should consider funding them.

John, I expet there have been previous experiments/research into 2 dose vaccinations and times between doses. That data should be a good indicator of how the covid vaccine will behave.

And the billion doses I referred to are those made in India. That would be enough to vaccinate the whole population (1.3billion, 300million is all they expect to vaccinate this year) so the rest must be being sold off. 

I expect the first world countries will be concentrating on getting their own populations vaccinated ASAP. Politically it would be smart. Then it will filter down to the developing countries etc. 

I also noted France is likely to have a relatively poor uptake. Much worse than the UK. Which is a worry with CLM supposed to be on in July.

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18 hours ago, Nick Jones said:

Some private company being paid for it without tender?

Nick

I don't think they even have that as an excuse in this instance (but who knows).

Latest update from yesterday on the Vaccines module. Fifty three pages of slides with hyperlinks to 6 other documents and videos to be studied and learnt. So far has invested almost 3 hours in this one alone and is not yet finished. Includes fascinating theoretical chemistry regarding the characteristics of B and T cells, their relative memory capabilities and so on. Fascinating indeed, and partly known already from my wife's work. But as you say, entirely worthless and pointless for the role.

Miles

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This morning on Today, BBC R4, Nick Robinson was taking Door Matt Hancock, the Health Minister, to task for similar over-complex 'training' being imposed by Health Trusts on vaccination volunteers.     I am lucky to have sensible vaccination project leaders!    First shift, Wednesday! (sound of knees knocking!)

John

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worrying report from Hancock and other today about the South African Covid mutation. The virus is expected to mutate but this mutation 'might' mean that the present vaccine wont work.. It can be modified but that will take time to implement. I am not sure that 2021 will be any better than 2020..
Here is the report from the Times (its behind the pay wall) and Sir John Bell (member of the Oxford vaccine team).

 

Ministers are “incredibly worried” about the South African variant of the coronavirus that could evade vaccines, Matt Hancock has admitted.
The South African variant is more likely to evade the vaccine than the new Kent variant, according to a key member of the Oxford vaccine team.
The rise in cases in the UK is being driven by a new, more transmissible variant of coronavirus that apparently originated in Kent. It bears some similarities to another variant also believed to be in the country but which first evolved in South Africa.
Sir John Bell, regius professor of medicine at Oxford, said that of the two, “I would worry a lot about the South African strain”.
Sir John, who was speaking on Times Radio, said that his main concern was the extent of the structural changes compared with the original virus.
“The mutations associated with the South African form are really pretty substantial changes in the structure of the protein,” he said.
Crucially, they are on the part of the virus that binds to human cells. “If you get an immune response that protects you, one of the ways it protects you is it gets in the way of that binding event. You rely on antibodies to bind to that domain to stop the virus entering your cells.”
If the virus changes, that mechanism may no longer work. “If you mess around with that you’re in trouble,” he said. “The real question is are the vaccines sufficient to neutralise the virus. Or, in the presence of the mutations, will they be disabled?”
Scientists have yet to determine the answer to that question.
“My gut feeling is the vaccine will be still effective against the Kent strain,” Sir John said. “I don’t know about the South African strain — there’s a big question mark about that.”
If the virus does change, then it should be possible to tweak the vaccines without going through full regulatory approval. Sir John estimated that that would take a month to six weeks.
He added that this was to be expected and that manufacturers had anticipated it. “Everyone should stay calm. It’s going to be fine. We’re now in a game of cat and mouse. These are not the only two variants we will see. We are going to see lots of variants.”

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Agreed that mutations/variants have the potential to be a huge and ongoing problem.  They are inevitable due to the vast numbers of infections worldwide and, as I said above, partially vaccinated populations are likely to drive the mutations towards resistant strains.

While Sir John offers the hope that it will be possible to tweak the vaccines to cope reasonably quickly, I fear that this is over-simplification.

Consider if you have 2 or 3 strains in circulation at the same time, either in different countries, or even within the same country, both of which are pretty much reality already, even if we think that the current vaccines will have at least some effect on them all.  Unless you have one vaccine that does them all (is it possible to add function rather than just change?), you need to be giving either the right vaccine (how do you know?), or all the vaccines, and you need to keep pace with the virus.  Either of which I suggest blows the already "challenging" vaccination logistics right out of reach.

Question is.... what are the government doing about this?  Will they be limiting travel / quarantining travellers from overseas to stop any more "foreign" variants coming in?  Countries that are successful in virus control (NZ and Oz to name two) are doing this.  My guess, based on the evidence to date is they won't do much except wring their hands and run round in circles.

TBQH, I reckon the the end of this will only come naturally when (if!) it's infected most of the worlds population, who have survived or died according to their luck/health/D3 levels.  The best hope is that it's more successful mutations will become less deadly and it becomes just another pesky cold - which is a pattern quite often seen.  Thing is though, it's not that deadly (% wise) even now, though it's transmissibility makes it appear so, meaning that there isn't much evolutionary pressure in that direction.

Nick

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1 hour ago, mpbarrett said:

worrying report from Hancock and other today about the South African Covid mutation. The virus is expected to mutate but this mutation 'might' mean that the present vaccine wont work.. It can be modified but that will take time to implement. I am not sure that 2021 will be any better than 2020..
Here is the report from the Times (its behind the pay wall) and Sir John Bell (member of the Oxford vaccine team).

 

Ministers are “incredibly worried” about the South African variant of the coronavirus that could evade vaccines, Matt Hancock has admitted.
The South African variant is more likely to evade the vaccine than the new Kent variant, according to a key member of the Oxford vaccine team.
The rise in cases in the UK is being driven by a new, more transmissible variant of coronavirus that apparently originated in Kent. It bears some similarities to another variant also believed to be in the country but which first evolved in South Africa.
Sir John Bell, regius professor of medicine at Oxford, said that of the two, “I would worry a lot about the South African strain”.
Sir John, who was speaking on Times Radio, said that his main concern was the extent of the structural changes compared with the original virus.
“The mutations associated with the South African form are really pretty substantial changes in the structure of the protein,” he said.
Crucially, they are on the part of the virus that binds to human cells. “If you get an immune response that protects you, one of the ways it protects you is it gets in the way of that binding event. You rely on antibodies to bind to that domain to stop the virus entering your cells.”
If the virus changes, that mechanism may no longer work. “If you mess around with that you’re in trouble,” he said. “The real question is are the vaccines sufficient to neutralise the virus. Or, in the presence of the mutations, will they be disabled?”
Scientists have yet to determine the answer to that question.
“My gut feeling is the vaccine will be still effective against the Kent strain,” Sir John said. “I don’t know about the South African strain — there’s a big question mark about that.”
If the virus does change, then it should be possible to tweak the vaccines without going through full regulatory approval. Sir John estimated that that would take a month to six weeks.
He added that this was to be expected and that manufacturers had anticipated it. “Everyone should stay calm. It’s going to be fine. We’re now in a game of cat and mouse. These are not the only two variants we will see. We are going to see lots of variants.”

That is indeed a huge concern, but not unexpected biologically.

Immunosenescence limits the response of the elderly to repeated vaccinations. Each vax uses up  a proportion of naive Tcells leaving fewer to commit to making new antibodies. Thus each flu vaccine has used up some of our defense. Repeated vaxes for each coronavrius variant may not work in the elderly if a new one is needed every few months.  We only have so many naive T-cells and they get used up throughout life.

The antimicrobial peptides induced by D3 such as cathelicidin actually disrupt the virus membrane as well as binding to the spike.  They are not virus-specific .  Vaccines are relatively crude by comparison.

Peter

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18 hours ago, JohnD said:

People are shouting about VitD, and that there is a conspiracy against it!     Lets do a little experiment.     In the US, where do the BAME peole live?

Largest Ancestry by U.S. County - Vivid Maps

That's right, the South East of the country.     

And where are the Covid cases in the US?   

Photo: John Hopkins University stats

That's right, there are more cases in the South East of ther copuntry   There is a strong geographical bias in the ethnicity of the people of the US, which is associated with the same bias in Covid prevalance.     Which shows how much more deadly is Covid for BAME people.

But let us make another proposition.   We know that VitD is synthesised in the skin with UV light from the sun.     Those BAME people are more sensitive to Covid because their pigmentation blocks more of the UV light, and they are more likely to have low VitD levels than white people in the same latitude.   So there will be another geographical bias, north to south, but that bias does not exist.  Therefore the proposition is disproved.

John

 

Caucasians have undergone evolution over the past 20k years that BAME have not. Two thirds of caucasuans heve evolved enhanced  senstitivity to 25(OH)D3, as measured on methylation patterns in peripehral blood monocytes.

Another aspect that confounds ecological studies of D3 is behaviural: BAME rarely sunbathe comparedwith mad dogs and englishmen. And clothing habits to observe relgious dictats strolnlgy impair D3 levels in BAME . Result: widespread D3-deficincy world wide even in nations with lots of sun.

Lifestyle is important too. Masai living outdoors have serum 25(OH)D of ca 125 nmol/L whereas their close relatives Ubuntu living in towns only reach 75 nmol/L   UK mean is just belwo 50.

Peter

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41 minutes ago, thebrookster said:

Well, that's Scotland back into full lockdown again!

I expect the whole of the England will be next, Boris following not leading, as usual.

mike

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For once Wales is ahead fo the game, because of its marginal provision of hospitals at the best of times.

But schools are still supposed to open. Older teachers in my view should stay home, and the new variant suggests 'old' means 40.

Peter

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49 minutes ago, mpbarrett said:

I expect the whole of the England will be next, Boris following not leading, as usual.

Agree.  Would be the right response, but at least a month late..... as usual.  There's not much learning going on at the top.

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Peter' et Al, 

Don't try and confuse with talk of Africans and South Asians in their own locale.    The 'experiment' was in the US, where all ethnics groups dress and live alike, apart from incomes.    The proposition that VitD, as a product of sun exposure is a protection against  Covid, should produce a geographical bias, 

does  not appear so the proposition fails.

John

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If the Virus is winning because of peoples low immunity then it makes sense to boost their immunity whilst waiting for the vaccine.

Doing nothing, which appears to be the general trend, is not really a scientific way to go about things.

Or is it better to let the weak die out for want of the odd vitamin or two.

 

Roger

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10 minutes ago, JohnD said:

Peter' et Al, 

Don't try and confuse with talk of Africans and South Asians in their own locale.    The 'experiment' was in the US, where all ethnics groups dress and live alike, apart from incomes.    The proposition that VitD, as a product of sun exposure is a protection against  Covid, should produce a geographical bias, 

does  not appear so the proposition fails.

John

John,  BAMEs are less responsive  to D3 wherever they live compared to caucasians wherever they live. Carlberg's work.

It is known that USA BAMEs have lower serum 25(OH)D. Same in UK, even amongst doctr=ors until BAPIO alerted them.Pargh Singh pf BAPIO is a signatory to the Opne Letter

The two conpsire to give a death rate form C-19 as a proportion of infections that is several fold higher than  whites.

Even in sunny CA D3 deficiency is rife even in whites. Slip, slap, slop and fear of melanoma ensures that. Geographical extrapolations to serum D3 are fraught with confounders.

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