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Covid 19, novel corona virus. Split from off-grid thread


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36 minutes ago, richy_rich said:

Hmmm.... I usually take 4000IU daily, the morning after the initial fever hit from my as-yet undiagnosed general seasonal flu I doubled the dose..  On reading your original 'hammer' post I doubled it again on a whim - I was bored, after all - (so, up again to 16k IU daily) and I'd say I'm now fully recovered..

However, I don't think we can really draw any conclusions from that I'm afraid.

I think 4-7 days recovery time would be typical for seasonal flu for someone of my age and fitness, one thing I would say though is that I definitely didn't have any respiratory 'complications' that I often used to get when coming down with this sort of thing (once ending up nearly dead from a secondary pneumonia).  

My main reason for taking D3 is that I don't see any downside and it's cheap. I'm dubious about many (but not all) of the claims made for it, but I am sure that many people are deficient in it and the cheap over the counter supplements and the multivitamins don't contain enough of the stuff given how much you can generate naturally on a sunny day.   You can have your levels checked, I have a full blood test every few years keep an eye on where they are. I've definitely noticed effects (such as fewer colds/infections in general etc., mood improvement)

Also I'm aware that, in my case, the effect could be placebo but that's fine too - the placebo effect is nothing to be sneezed at either.   

Welcome back to the land of the living. I've noticed the same as you, plus wounds heal faster, and I get a runny nose with each temperature change. And I think the skin on my hande is less wrinkly, and nails and hair grow faster. For me the mood change is the most signficant as it means D3 is influencing the brain and hopefully stabilising the Parkinson's, which science says it should.

Peter

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Well I’m still spamming because I think it’s important...... and this seems to bear it out Pity he takes half an hour when it needs 10 minutes tops but anyway..... Trial in a 

Earlier, I posted a link to the Royal Society symposium where several global experts spoke about Covid  and the vaccine.  They only had an hour and the speakers could answer a few questions from their

My work are very much blazing their own trail on this one: we've just been told that, unless pregnant or high risk, everyone must be in the office or will be marked as 'unauthorised leave' with subseq

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Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO's director general, said in a news conference in Geneva yesterday that Covid-19 was deadlier than the seasonal flu but did not transmit as easily. “Globally, about 3.4 percent of reported Covid-19 cases have died,” he said.

He added that it, "spreads less efficiently than flu,  transmission does not appear to be driven by people who are not sick, causes more severe illness than flu." But he was confident that it can be contained.   Since the outbreak in Iran centred on the 'Holy' city of Qom is out of control, that is a lot to say.

 

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As a 75 yr old I dont find 3.4% encouragin as 80% of that were over 60.

The bit about "not driven by people who are not sick " is a concern, as it means that 3,4% figure becomes more accurate. If there were large numbers infected.. who transmitted the virus without being sick and tested the 3.4 % would be much lower, and I;d be happier.

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I'm trying to get the D3 message out, but it is hard going.

image.png.b97a0e56616521dec117888037f4ee35.png

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, JohnD said:

Globally, about 3.4 percent of reported Covid-19 cases have died

It's the "reported" part which is fairly critical.  The unknown unreported ones could be very significant, especially as it seems that young people / kids my have it with hardly a sniffle.

I don't entirely buy the part about it not being driven by people who are not symptomatic or minimally symptomatic as a couple of well publicised cases have been just that.

The various figures for the over 60's though, especially men, getting worse with each passing year and gathering ailment is not happy reading though.  Could easily be that in the near future, they are ones who need to self-isolate.....

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13 minutes ago, Nick Jones said:

It's the "reported" part which is fairly critical.  The unknown unreported ones could be very significant, especially as it seems that young people / kids my have it with hardly a sniffle.

I don't entirely buy the part about it not being driven by people who are not symptomatic or minimally symptomatic as a couple of well publicised cases have been just that.

The various figures for the over 60's though, especially men, getting worse with each passing year and gathering ailment is not happy reading though.  Could easily be that in the near future, they are ones who need to self-isolate.....

We have self-isolated already,  despite  the presumed protection of being afloat with D3.  Being retired with a pension makes it easy, I really feel for the oaps havin to work on check-outs. Peter

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Alan, So for a 75 yr old by Feb 11 they comprised 8.8% of the infected population and comprised 8% of fatalities. Fortunately that does not tell us the individual risk of death. It is not 100% !! -because deaths lag infections by at least a week, hopefully more.  But those distributions  should be ringing alarm bells in the elderly care  sector .

Peter (hoping his primirive grasp of stats holds true)

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Peter,

Stats are always just guides, but as you wrote the distributions do not point to successful outcomes for many of the elderly who will get infected.

I heard a manufacturer on Radio4 today stating that he could not obtain the alcohol needed to make their hand / surface scrub. So I assume maintaining a high internal alcohol level, taking care to rinse around the mouth whilst drinking is the way to go - in all meanings of the word "go".

Time for me to panic buy lots of luxury items and party whilst I an still able.

Every cloud...….,

Alan

 

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Population pyramid of China

AB|W's histogram of Chinese patients infected by age group is biased.    As shown above, the demographic distribution of Chinese peoples' ages is biased away from the aged, as people die as they get older (Doh!).   This is not a Chinese phenomenon!      The population of people aged 80 or over is significantly less, so the number of those that become infected is also less.

What the histogram does show is that CoVid-19 seems to spare children less than 20 years old.   The number in those age groups is not significantly less than the mean, so the low infection rate is real.

John

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The difference between swine flu and covid is the former killed mostly young  adults and spared the aged, while covid is the other way round. In swine flu the well tuned immune system in some young adults created a "cytokine storm" that destroyed the lungs. Oldies with weaker immune systems were spared. Covid deaths are predominantly in the aged....dunno why, but again its lungs that fail.

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1 hour ago, PeterC said:

The difference between swine flu and covid is the former killed mostly young  adults and spared the aged, while covid is the other way round. In swine flu the well tuned immune system in some young adults created a "cytokine storm" that destroyed the lungs. Oldies with weaker immune systems were spared. Covid deaths are predominantly in the aged....dunno why, but again its lungs that fail.

Peter

Swine 'flu followed almost exactly the pattern attributed to the 'Spanish' 'flu pandemic 100 years ago, killing mostly young adults and triggering a cytokine storm or, frequently, attacking lungs weakened by viral pneumonia with bacterial pneumonia.

And at a slight tangent... I saw a poll yesterday, which suggested that less than 50% of the UK population - by their own admission - had started heeding advice to wash hands more frequently.

Paul

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This is from Freeman, Stocks Cumming et al's review of worldwide studies of hand washing practice after defeacation or urination. (Systematic review: Hygiene and health: systematic review of handwashing practices worldwide and update of health effects, Europ. J.Tropical Med and Int.Health, https://doi.org/10.1111/tmi.12339)

Region Country No. of Studies Prevalence estimate, (%) (95% CI) without sample weighting
Afr Burkina Faso 1 8 (4, 14)
Ethiopia 1 22 (13, 34)
Ghana 3 13 (6, 22)
Kenya 5 15 (7, 29)
Senegal 1 19 (12, 30)
Uganda 1 15 (9, 24)
Tanzania 1 5 (3, 10)
AmrHI USA 7 49 (32, 65)
AmrLMI Peru 2 16 (7, 32)
EurHI Israel 1 12 (5, 26)
Netherlands 1 50 (34, 66)
United Kingdom 3 52 (34, 70)
EurLMI Kyrgyzstan 1 16 (7, 32)
Sear Bangladesh 7 18 (10, 27)
India 3 15 (3, 27)
Thailand 1 25 (15, 38)
WprHI New Zealand 1 72 (44, 89)
Republic of Korea 1 17 (9, 33)
WprLMI China 2 13 (6, 24)
  • Afr, Africa; Amr, Americas; Emr, Eastern Mediterranean; Eur, Europe; Sear, Southeast Asia; Wpr, Western Pacific; LMI, low‐ and middle‐income; HI, high‐income

As you can see, while some countries, probaly for lack of a free-flowing water supply, the rate is very low, but that excuse is not available for European countries.     Any increase is to be welcomed.

JOhn

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What I'm not sure of yet is whether the virus or the risk of a breakdown in infrastructure is of greater concern. I can see why this thread started out as part of Roger's off-grid thread, as there is a relationship between the two. As I said over on Roger's thread, I like to read on the subject of self-sufficiency and all this has made me take another look at what in my opinion is the most comprehensive text on the subject, John Seymour's "The New Complete Book of Self-Sufficiency"... it's the updated version of the '70s classic. Re-reading the first few pages, I was struck by this paragraph:

"If the same crop [animals too] is grown on a piece of land year after year, the disease organisms that attack the crop will build up in the area until they become uncontrollable. Nature abhors monoculture: any cursory inspection of a natural plant and animal environment will reveal and great variety of species. If one species becomes too predominant, some pest or disease is sure to develop to strike it down. Man has managed to defy this law, to date, by the application of stronger and stronger chemical controls, but the pests (particularly the fast-evolving viruses) adapt very quickly to withstand each new chemical and so far the chemist has managed to keep only a short jump ahead of the disease."

Over population of the planet is a subject that most people try to avoid, but nature has a way of making things clear and bringing things back into balance. 

I wonder just how accurate the figures are for numbers infected and for deaths. I'm not sure how good this website is, but it's maybe worth a look ... https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

It's interesting that, according to this at least, there have been no deaths of under 10 year olds. It's probably not accurate, but if it is, then it could be that youngsters have immunity it this. No doubt it's being investigated. It does seem to me unlikely that this virus started out when first discovered, in which case we haven't much idea how long it's been in the human population. I also suspect that it's far more widespread than reports claim. That probably means that the mortality rate is lower than the 3.4%, assuming most of the unreported cases survive. We can hope. 

With luck, this virus will mutate into a less harmful strain, after all no self respecting virus wants to be killing its host and thereby reduce its ability to spread. In the meantime, I'm washing my hands singing Happy Birthday twice, and adding "...and many more"!

Darren

 

 

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Mutating is a concern as viruses tend to evolve to infect as many people as possible. Looking on the dark side that might mean we start to see more serious  infections amongst the young who at present are spared. On the other hand the earlier rumours that the virus is infectious/contageous before symptoms appear might suggest its doing pretty well in an evolutionary sense already and selective pressures to be more dangerous are not great. Its early days...

Peter

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5 hours ago, JohnD said:

This is from Freeman, Stocks Cumming et al's review of worldwide studies of hand washing practice after defeacation or urination. (Systematic review: Hygiene and health: systematic review of handwashing practices worldwide and update of health effects, Europ. J.Tropical Med and Int.Health, https://doi.org/10.1111/tmi.12339)

Region Country No. of Studies Prevalence estimate, (%) (95% CI) without sample weighting
Afr Burkina Faso 1 8 (4, 14)
Ethiopia 1 22 (13, 34)
Ghana 3 13 (6, 22)
Kenya 5 15 (7, 29)
Senegal 1 19 (12, 30)
Uganda 1 15 (9, 24)
Tanzania 1 5 (3, 10)
AmrHI USA 7 49 (32, 65)
AmrLMI Peru 2 16 (7, 32)
EurHI Israel 1 12 (5, 26)
Netherlands 1 50 (34, 66)
United Kingdom 3 52 (34, 70)
EurLMI Kyrgyzstan 1 16 (7, 32)
Sear Bangladesh 7 18 (10, 27)
India 3 15 (3, 27)
Thailand 1 25 (15, 38)
WprHI New Zealand 1 72 (44, 89)
Republic of Korea 1 17 (9, 33)
WprLMI China 2 13 (6, 24)
  • Afr, Africa; Amr, Americas; Emr, Eastern Mediterranean; Eur, Europe; Sear, Southeast Asia; Wpr, Western Pacific; LMI, low‐ and middle‐income; HI, high‐income

As you can see, while some countries, probaly for lack of a free-flowing water supply, the rate is very low, but that excuse is not available for European countries.     Any increase is to be welcomed.

JOhn

What's with NZ  - expecting something nasty from the west island ?

Those avocados from Israel need a thorough washing.

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1 hour ago, PaulAA said:

Interesting that diarrhea is only recorded in c.5% of cases, yet the most prominent panic-buying worldwide appears to be of toilet paper...

I think the rationale behind this is that if you end up locked in your house for a couple of weeks (self-isolating or in lock-down) you might find yourself needing toilet paper.  Possibly because diarrhoea, possibly normal poops and possibly because there'll be lots of spare time to look at youpron et al. ;)

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Toilet paper.

I thought that the worry was that it was quite likely that whole teams in any workplace would cross infect each other so the complete factory, office  whatever would shutdown for a period.

As everyone seems to use just-in-time supply deliveries products would become rather scarce, just look at the motor industry, even JCB stopping at the moment. Now most things in life have an alternative, but toilet paper?

So it is either back to the xylospongium of roman times or get a stock of toilet rolls in whilst you can is the international message.

Alan

 

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13 hours ago, richy_rich said:

I think the rationale behind this is that if you end up locked in your house for a couple of weeks... there'll be lots of spare time to look at youpron et al. ;)

This is an interesting theory and I'm sure there's a PhD lurking there for some enthusiastic student of statistics.

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