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Covid 19, novel corona virus. Split from off-grid thread


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14 hours ago, thebrookster said:

I'm going to pull you up on this one, John!

IMO John is quite right about this - and absolutely no insult to those working above and beyond with inadequate resources.

The question should be, why is such a key thing being left to sink or swim by the cretins in Westminster while they shovel millions upon millions of our pounds to their cronies in the private sector with very poor results.

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Well I’m still spamming because I think it’s important...... and this seems to bear it out Pity he takes half an hour when it needs 10 minutes tops but anyway..... Trial in a 

Earlier, I posted a link to the Royal Society symposium where several global experts spoke about Covid  and the vaccine.  They only had an hour and the speakers could answer a few questions from their

My work are very much blazing their own trail on this one: we've just been told that, unless pregnant or high risk, everyone must be in the office or will be marked as 'unauthorised leave' with subseq

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52 minutes ago, Nick Jones said:

IMO John is quite right about this - and absolutely no insult to those working above and beyond with inadequate resources.

The question should be, why is such a key thing being left to sink or swim by the cretins in Westminster while they shovel millions upon millions of our pounds to their cronies in the private sector with very poor results.

The cretins probably do not benefit from the ££££££££ given to the NHS and other deserving causes.

However the private sector is awash with slush funds etc and many of the cretins are in the employ (overtly or otherwise) of them (probably)

 

Roger 

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Why, Nick?  Because it is their practice to outsource, on contracts made on the nod, with people they know rather than people who compete for them, people who run companies whose ethos is to spend as little as possible on the project, and keep the rest.   Why else should they have gven the 'leadership' of Track& Trace to Dido Harding, who has in turn filled her board of management with apparatchiks from business and marketing, without a single board member with public health experience?  Let alone a doctor?

The response of the City leaders of England demonstrates the sickness at the herat of this government.   Manchester, Liverpool, Newcastle, Liverpool, Nottingham, Sheffield - they have all angrily complianed that the London Gov has announced another, more stringent, dictat in the face of failure of previous local lockdowns, with absolutely no prior notice of consultation.   Johnson and his cronies have no idea of how to conduct a democratic government, no ideas other than lock down, then startup, then lockdown and no concept that they might not be the best government ever for the UK.

 

JOhn

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I am not so hard on our politicos, they are being badly advised. SAGE, CMO and CSA show all the signs of tunnel vision, discarding without any consideration alternative or supplementary strategies. Whomever decided upon the composition of SAGE carries some responsibility, presumably a DoH mandarin. Ultimately BoJo and co carry the can but their total lack of science-medical knowledge excuses them somewhat to my mind. My MP add MS have both grasped the essentials of D3, after many emails. So I have no doubt Hancock could learn likewise. But he relies upon SAGE. That is the government's achilles heel, and the opposition's too. SAGE with its narrowly focused immutable approach is seen in WHO too. WHO have a global perspective and should be asking why Uganda has one thousandth the C19 death rate of Ugandans living in UK. Such instances of "that's really odd" are the very stuff of science, a clue, the first step in unravelling new understanding and new interventions. But lost on SAGE and WHO.  So no wonder BoJo and Mutt are in dire straits.

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  • 4 weeks later...

Just watched BBC2 programme "Totally Under Control: Trump and Covid-19"

It's on iPlayer: https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000p36r/totally-under-control-trump-and-covid19

Made in America, by Americans, it's a extraordinary indictment of the Trump admistration and the man himself, with  interviews with major people, in particular the director of the US Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, Dr.Rick Bright who, in the face of repeated Presidential advocacy of hydroxychlorquine treatment for Covid, went public because he and the FDA knew that there was no evidence that it had any effect, and was sacked.    But wait for the final payoff, Trump's interview with Bob Woodward!

When will someone in the UK do the same for our mini-Trump, and his incompetent clowns?   We cannot wait for the verdict of History - journalism  is its first draft and I sincerely hope some British Woodward is working on it now.

John

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I don't really have much faith in either side of this COVID debate--it seems that there is plenty of unsupported opinion, spin, and general bloviating from both sides.  It is amplified 10 fold here in the US because it is election season.

One gripe I have with the people reporting on COVID, no matter what side of the fence they are on, is that they seem to offer their conclusions first, and then, if there is time or space, the data to support it.  Often the support is not there at all. 

When there is an attempt at supporting evidence, three graphs are common: New cases vs time, New Hospitalizations vs Time, and New Deaths vs Time.  The problem is that they are always (as far as I've seen) separate graphs, with DIFFERENT VERTICAL SCALES.  To folks not used to evaluating the meaning of data, this can give a wholly inaccurate picture.

So, I took the liberty of downloading all of the raw data from our CDC (Centers for Disease Control--Sort of the US epicenter for COVID information), and graphed it myself, using a common vertical axis. 

I believe it can be instructive.  Here it is, up to a few days ago.

 

COVID.jpg

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Hi Ed

There is such variance in the methods of data qualification and collection that much of it seems almost arbitrary in painting a grim picture.

Here in Poland, rates of infection are only recording if the test was conducted by a public health station, half of which close at the weekend, so Sunday and Monday figures always register a substation drop.

No figures seem reliable - deaths are only registered here as C19 if a test is done post mortem, and, in a cash-strapped health service, a +ive result will entail considerable additional costs, so...

The only data we really keep an eye on in my household (we have two oldies to manage remotely) is the ratio of available ventilators. We have about 1,900 available and occupancy has been creeping up for about three weeks. Currently, about 75% are busy (1,450 today), which does not bode well.

Stay well

Paul

Edit: sorry, a little qualification to the ventilator numbers. That's c.1,900 for the whole country, so in Warsaw, we currently have 100% ventilator occupancy and a 'dead man's shoes' policy. There is no facility to transfer patients between regions, let alone to neighbouring countries.

Edited by PaulAA
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Ed,

It's unlikely that you can watch the programme I referred to from where you are on iPlayer, but is available online at: https://ew.com/movies/totally-under-control-covid-19-documentary-watch-for-free/   I urge you to see it.

Your comment that parties on both sides " offer their conclusions first, and then, if there is time or space, the data to support it" is wholly in line with the universal advice on good presentation - Tell what you're going to say, tell it, then tell what you have said.    After all, a lawyer in court will, in effect, say to the jury, "the defendent is guilty as hell, and this proves it"!      The order of accusation and evidence is immaterial, as long as the evidence is material.

Your graph shows that the new case rate is followed by a much smaller incidence of hospital admission, about two weeks later, and that being so ill as to need to be in hospital has a high risk of death.   Yes, putting all those on the same rate axis makes that interpretation easy, but we knew that anyway, and you must admit that such a tall graph may not fit well into a newspaper!

John

Edited by JohnD
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Paul--

Yes, there is a lot of variance in data gathering methods and data quality here in the US, too. In fact, the CDC includes a letter grade for each state's data quality, and they arent all A.  The US raw data also has a large noise component with a 7-day period, which is the reason for the 7-day running average filter on the graph.

The problem with the "New Cases" numbers is that they reflect the testing rate as much as the infection rate. In a population where some fraction of people are infected, if you do more testing, you find more cases.  

I'm not sure if you have looked at some of the seroprevalance studies.  By looking at antibody incidence in random samples of healthy people, it appears that the true number of cases ranges from a few times to maybe 20 times the number of "recorded" cases. 

John--

Thanks for the link. Based on the rather one-sided content, and the timing, it appears to me to be mainly a political tool.

Ed

 

 

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I got a random letter two weeks ago, asking if I'd participate in the React study for antibody prevalence in the general public (https://www.reactstudy.org/). The test kit arrived the other day and I just performed the operation at my kitchen table. Pleasantly surprised that you don't send it back for processing: it's got an indicator stick which tells you result after 10 mins. You then fill out a comprehensive online survey and send them a photo of the test result. They do stress that it isn't 100% accurate, but useful enough for population-level analysis. 

Mine was negative, which was unsurprising but a bit disappointing in a way. Anyway I was quite impressed with the procedure, and that it cost me nowt but a drop of blood (a friend paid £65 for a private test, which also turned out negative but took 7 days for processing).

 

DSC_1108.JPG

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The accuracy of the seroprevalence may be relevant to an individual, but for a large collection of tests, since the accuracy is known, the results can be corrected.

In at least one place (New York City, maybe?), the prevalence of antibodies was around 20 times the official case count.

Ed

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  • 2 weeks later...

Latest from WHO.

COVID-19 BREAKING NEWS.

Men aged between 40 - 70 are now thought most likely to carry the Corona virus without showing any signs or symptoms.

The best course of action is to avoid women and children to prevent the spread of the virus.

Workshops sheds and Garages are  recognised as the safest areas and you must now self isolate in one for 14 days.

Ensure you have with you, your laptop, PayPal details and plenty of tea bags and milk. A large crate of your favourite cold beverage and a fridge are also advised.     Others in your household should be aware that even a slight sniffle or sneeze on the last day of the 14, means another 14 days.    Come on guys, do it for the family!   Keep calm and stay in the garage!

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40 minutes ago, JohnD said:

Latest from WHO.

COVID-19 BREAKING NEWS.

Men aged between 40 - 70 are now thought most likely to carry the Corona virus without showing any signs or symptoms.

The best course of action is to avoid women and children to prevent the spread of the virus.

Workshops sheds and Garages are  recognised as the safest areas and you must now self isolate in one for 14 days.

Ensure you have with you, your laptop, PayPal details and plenty of tea bags and milk. A large crate of your favourite cold beverage and a fridge are also advised.     Others in your household should be aware that even a slight sniffle or sneeze on the last day of the 14, means another 14 days.    Come on guys, do it for the family!   Keep calm and stay in the garage!

Hello John

                  But Men can visit other men's Garage for advice or machining of parts but must take suitable precautions ie take payment (Beer ,Wine and nibbles)

Roger

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34 minutes ago, GT6Steve said:

Can anyone give me a clear explanation of the current situation in the UK?  Are you on lockdown again?  to what extent?  

 

England: Currently on "lockdown lite", however schools are still open. Basically pubs, bars, restaurants and non-essential shops are closed, and no visiting other houses.

Wales: Now out of "firebreak" as they termed it. They are probably the most normal of the UK currently?

Scotland: Working to a "Tier" system, basically central belt is heavily restricted but not full lockdown, outlying areas are on lesser restrictions (alcohol sales limited, visiting fairly limited).

Not sure what Northern Ireland is up to just now.

I think that's the general jist of things as they stand currently!

Phil

Edited by thebrookster
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Very much "lockdown light"  - in Lockdown 1, the roads were empty, but I wnent for my weekly shop in the modern, and as usual went back the long way along the M6 as it bypasses Lancaster, to recharge the battary,  and the traffic was normal for that time of day.     They can't all be delivering for Amazon!

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36 minutes ago, JohnD said:

Very much "lockdown light" 

Agreed. Schools remaining open makes a big difference, but also many more workplaces are open this time. My office is quieter than it was in August but only slightly, and there are still lots of commuters. Anecdotal but London doesn't seem to have changed significantly since we went from Tier 2 to lockdown; just the pubs and cafes are shut now. 

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Doesn’t look like lockdown around here..... Traffic levels near normal.

Seems that any work related is ok, anything leisure/pleasure related.... not so much.

Not sure it is working either. But people around here seem much less careful than earlier in the year, even though plague levels in these parts are as high as they’ve been so far... and (inevitably) rising.

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Well, I have escaped (by the skin of my teeth near enough) from increased restrictions.

West Dunbartonshire (along with several other Central Scottish councils) is going to "Level 4" restrictions, which is as severe as we can get in Scotland under the current system. Fortunately I am 5 miles past the border, so we stay in Level 2. The difficulty with this is I need to go to Dumbarton for my shopping!! I can get a lot of stuff from Helensburgh, and indeed do already, however there isn't a large supermarket there.

Interestingly, the Scottish Government have now made travel restrictions (currently you should not travel into or out of your local council area if you are either Level 3 or 4) law, unless it is an essential trip. So no more takeaways for a wee while now lol (well, I can still get a chippy from Helensburgh, but that's about it!)

Phil

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Hmm..... the daily practicality implications of such border restrictions tend to get overlooked. Especially in rural areas. Not alt in the other direction until Fort William!

You may have given your location away. I see what looks suspiciously like a T2000 saloon, in red on Google maps aerial view...... If I’m guessing right, what a superb location!

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6 hours ago, Nick Jones said:

Hmm..... the daily practicality implications of such border restrictions tend to get overlooked. Especially in rural areas. Not alt in the other direction until Fort William!

You may have given your location away. I see what looks suspiciously like a T2000 saloon, in red on Google maps aerial view...... If I’m guessing right, what a superb location!

Damn, I've been found :laugh:

Western side of A82, house by itself? Lovely location, you're right, but not peaceful just now. They are resurfacing the A82 right outside all night for the next 11 nights lol. Might have to become nocturnal.

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