Covid 19, novel corona virus. Split from off-grid thread

[JohnD]

Which is the inverse of Occam's Razor?

[Nick Jones]

What is it about testing this poxy shower masquerading as government find so difficult? 

[PaulAA]

17 minutes ago, Nick Jones said:

What is it about testing this poxy shower masquerading as government find so difficult? 

Truth.

It is anathema to what they stand for.

[zetecspit]

1 hour ago, PaulAA said:

Truth.

It is anathema to what they stand for.

Not so certain. I have real doubts about this, and most of europes countries ability to track and trace every positive case, let alone carry out enough tests. And lets face it, the number of tests to do that now would be astronomical and unworkable. Lack of reagents seems to be an issue. 

Looking at Sweden, there are some differences in culture, which no doubt make substantial differences, but just like the UK the capital is where the number of cases is concentrated. But despite no lockdown, only advice to social distance (schools, bars etc all open) the pattern is not as horrendous as one may expect. And bear in mind that decision is not made by the politicians but by the public health dept, so medics/scientists. 

I still think nobody knows what the best strategy is. I do understand testing for people who have been in contact with the sick is useful so they can return to work, or whatever. But my worry is still all the people out there who are having medical stuff bumped down the list and are at risk of dying when normally their lives would almost certainly be saved. Got a friend going in for a cancer op tomorrow, about 4 weeks late. I am hopeful the delay is not going to affect the outcome, but he is one of many thousands. Neighbour is on chemo, or was. That has been stopped. 

Anyway, my punt at the next few months is that a political decision will be made that we will slowly return to life. The decision to ask us to stay at home must have been taken once the death toll was high enough that the population would accept the decision. Too early and it would have been largely ignored. The return to "new normality" will also be  largely decided by the mood of the country. I think the weather going downhill may encourage to people to stay at home, but traffic has got much busier (I have to wait a while at junctions and takes me twice as long to get to my parents now as a week ago) and a lot more groups down our local park. It may be the guidelines will relax soon so what people are beginning to do will be allowed. Better that than mass civil disobedience and the chaos that creates. 

And on another note, if any of you have health concerns, do contact your GP. Yes, it is different, but I did an online form, got a call later that day and an appt for Monday. Seems quite efficient, and I wonder if it is the future. Certainly better than sitting in a broth of microbes known as a waiting room.

[mattius]

The main difference between the Swedish and the UK is the majority of People in Sweden observed social distancing on their own, with no need for rules and government, they have self discipline.

Unfortunately there is a large proportion of selfish Americanised modern generation of UK which just wouldn't do that! You only have to look at the rush on the supermarkets to tell you that. Or look at places like our local FiveGuys burger takeaway which re-opened and had to call in the police 30mins after opening due to the crowds and people ignoring distancing.

I also don't believe that will work in places like London where large amounts of people are living on top of each other, most companies wouldn't force all their staff to work from home until the government told them to

[PaulAA]

41 minutes ago, mattius said:

The main difference between the Swedish and the UK is the majority of People in Sweden observed social distancing on their own, with no need for rules and government, they have self discipline.

Unfortunately there is a large proportion of selfish Americanised modern generation of UK which just wouldn't do that! You only have to look at the rush on the supermarkets to tell you that. Or look at places like our local FiveGuys burger takeaway which re-opened and had to call in the police 30mins after opening due to the crowds and people ignoring distancing.

I also don't believe that will work in places like London where large amounts of people are living on top of each other, most companies wouldn't force all their staff to work from home until the government told them to

Matt

Agreed, but I don't think it's a generational thing - it appears to be a trans-generational attitude problem, the 'me-me-me' attitude of the libertarian brigade.  Take a look at the front page of the Daily Telegraph to see how the privileged and opinionated are shouting about how wrong the lockdown is and how irrelevant covid-19 is in their big world view.  Elderly 'opinion' writers who have yet to experience the disease, but insist on sharing their scant knowledge and prejudice.

 

[mattius]

The best one i heard was an American woman claiming it was all "fake news" and that she didn't know anyone that it had affected, the scientist just responded with "give it 2 months, you will".

That prediction was sadly right for a lot of us, but i think her view sums up how a lot of people view this.

[PeterC]

It is highly likely to be D3 protecting Swedes. Lots of running around naked in summer, fortified foods, fish in diet, and some supplement awareness.

Mean adult 25(OH)D3 at end-winter in far north of Sweden is 67 nmol/L , and 76 for supplement users. Elderly were highest.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4432023/

Now look at UK: http://prntscr.com/s65ufg  el

elderly in UK , average m+f 47.

That difference makes a big difference to COVID severity: above 75 nmol/L covid is mild(blue), 50 to 71(green) very few mild.

 

It follows that it is dangerous to ignore D3 in deciding exit strategies. But D3 is not on any politicians agenda. We cna hope that  SAGE is aware, but I fear that it is not. 

Peter

 

[mattius]

Feels like this thread is being spammed with D3 adverts, 

Im out

Edited April 26, 2020 by mattius

[JohnD]

I'm reading my daily newspaper 24hours late, to allow time for any virus on the paper to die off, so I regret that this may be old news to some.

  Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/24/revealed-uk-ministers-were-warned-last-year-of-risks-of-coronavirus-pandemic

This is a page from a National Security Risk Assessment, that has been obtained by the Guardian, published in confidence to the Government in 2019.   It was compiled under the editorship of Sir Patrick Vallance, the Chief Scientific Advisor and printed under the letterhead of the Cabinet Office.   It laid out the risk of a pandemic flu epidemic, and the steps that the country should take to best manage it.    This finally and categorically removes any possiblity that the Tories could say that they were not warned.

While considering an influenza epidemic by a new mutation of that virus, rather than a coronavirus,the report predicts a scenario almost identical the one we are in, including as many as 65,000 deaths.    As hospital deaths rise above 20,000, with community and care home deaths uncounted, and the collatteral fatalities, from cancer, heart disease and all the others that the NHS was barely coping with,  clearly still continuing but also unknown, a casualty rate of that size is inevitable.

But what did not happen?    The report recommends the stockpiling of PPE, with contracts in advance for continuing supplies, preparation and plans for contact tracing, planning for repatriation of Britons abroad, and for what we now call 'lockdown' and redirecting the NHS to cater for massive demand for hospital care.   All matters that the Government were warned of last year, by the most senior and well-informed scientists, and on which they have been caught completely unprepared.      Hiding behind the constant mantra that they have been "Guided by the Science".

John

 

 

[PeterC]

Truly shocking John, and plaudits to the Grauniads whistlblower. But I.m not surprised.  Most biologists have been anticipating a pandemic for decades. But to politicians (mostly lawyers) and career civll servants (Oxbridge philosphy.politics, arts)  we must have seemed excitable doom-mongers. " Guided by the science" my ar**. 

If a quota of MPs were required to be science aware we might stand a chance of survivng this century, for there is a lot worse tp come.  When democratic processes elect a child to be POTUS we have to question whether democracy is such a wonderful thing. But my favourite dictator-scientist might not be yours.

Peter

[zetecspit]

5 hours ago, mattius said:

The main difference between the Swedish and the UK is the majority of People in Sweden observed social distancing on their own, with no need for rules and government, they have self discipline.

Unfortunately there is a large proportion of selfish Americanised modern generation of UK which just wouldn't do that! You only have to look at the rush on the supermarkets to tell you that. Or look at places like our local FiveGuys burger takeaway which re-opened and had to call in the police 30mins after opening due to the crowds and people ignoring distancing.

I also don't believe that will work in places like London where large amounts of people are living on top of each other, most companies wouldn't force all their staff to work from home until the government told them to

Have you seen the footage on the news? people not keeping apart at all. Ok, I know it is media, so likely not representative. But schools etc?? all open, and those super-spreaders have no idea of personal space. (daughter teaches. Kids are sitting apart in class, but come playtime they are behaving like they always have)

A big factor in London must be transport. Everybody uses crowded public transport, so it spreads fast. Saying that other daughter works in very central London, she hasn't caught it, nor any of her friends. But all the stats will be available imn the distant future!

Oh, and having spent most of today NOT working on my car (I was just starting at 10.30 when I got a call) but insted picking up Dad who had fallen, then waiting for an ambulance to check him over etc, I was talking to the 23 man crew (I guess 3 as they seem to be the "falls" team, and were grateful I had got him up. My back not so grateful) about CV. Their take on it is you are high risk if male, old, obese, high blood pressure or SE Asian descent. Not me, but from frontline workers.

[Nick Jones]

3 hours ago, zetecspit said:

other daughter works in very central London, she hasn't caught it, nor any of her friends

Or have caught it and killed it without being aware.......

5 hours ago, JohnD said:

and the collateral fatalities, from cancer, heart disease and all the others that the NHS was barely coping with,  clearly still continuing but also unknown, a casualty rate of that size is inevitable.

In this part of the world, quite large parts of the NHS are stood around with nothing to do.  All "routine" stuff cancelled.  YDH hasn't been this empty in decades.  Chris's GF (nearly qualified trainee nurse) has just started working at a local minor injuries unit.  About 50% down on their usual traffic.  But even down here, the paramedics are suffering much increased "certify life extinct / body collection" duty as people who should be calling are leaving it too late......

[JohnD]

And the Nightingale Hospitals are almost, or completely unused.    Junior staff, posted to them, are being returned back to their original departments.     I have to say, the Gov were damned if they didn't, damned if they did on these.    If the worst  predictions on ventilation need were fulfilled, people would have been gasping to death in every cubicle in A&E in every hospital, and in the ambulances outside.     As it is, some hospitals have expanded their ability to ventilate patients  by FIVE TIMES.    And found four out five of those ventilator beds filled, but not more.      The lockdown has worked, but the cost has been enormous, in collateral damage to untreated patients and people who dare go to hospital.      The cost of the Nightingales was only money.

John

[zetecspit]

6 hours ago, JohnD said:

And the Nightingale Hospitals are almost, or completely unused.    Junior staff, posted to them, are being returned back to their original departments.     I have to say, the Gov were damned if they didn't, damned if they did on these.    If the worst  predictions on ventilation need were fulfilled, people would have been gasping to death in every cubicle in A&E in every hospital, and in the ambulances outside.     As it is, some hospitals have expanded their ability to ventilate patients  by FIVE TIMES.    And found four out five of those ventilator beds filled, but not more.      The lockdown has worked, but the cost has been enormous, in collateral damage to untreated patients and people who dare go to hospital.      The cost of the Nightingales was only money.

John

I wonder if the strategy "may" have been been better if they used the nightingales first, or transferred patients there. After all, I get the impression treating a single illness like covid requires a one track strategy, and not the myriad of different requirements that is "normal" in a hospital. That would keep the "normal" hospitals available for more of the stuff they deal with on a day to day basis. 

But yes, any govt would want to be seen to be doing whatever it can as the public is totally focused on the one illness, and everything else is sidelined.

( and apologies for my fat fingers in my last post!! ) 

[PeterC]

http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2020/05/covid-19-vitamin-d-ethnicity-and.html

Pls fwd to BAME family, friends, neighbours etc. As well as being low on D3 BAME races are less responsive to it compared with caucasinas. They do need to know, but no-one in authority is telliing them.

Peter

 

[mpbarrett]

Interesting critical review of some of the research on vitamin D on Radio 4 More or Less see 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p08czkk7 

 

BTW Always an excellent program, there analysis of number of tests being done was very interesting (previous week).

 

Mike

 

[Nick Jones]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/17/uk-ministers-order-urgent-vitamin-d-coronavirus-review

This'll be interesting......

[richy_rich]

I thought of this thread when I saw that too   

[PeterC]

Scotland the brave

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/18521442.coronavirus-push-prescribe-vitamin-d-people-highest-risk-covid-bid-curb-second-wave-virus/

-the group I work with have a strong contingent north of the border and that artciel reflects almost three months of their work to raise awareness amongst scots politicians of D3 and covid.

However if politicians do not widen their "stakeholder" base beyond NICE/SACN/PHE and seek deeper scientific advice then nothing will change. 

Peter

[Nick Jones]

On 4/26/2020 at 2:33 PM, mattius said:

Feels like this thread is being spammed with D3 adverts, 

Im out

Well I’m still spamming because I think it’s important......

and this seems to bear it out

Pity he takes half an hour when it needs 10 minutes tops but anyway.....

Trial in a Spanish hospital (Córdoba) involving 76 patients admitted with Covid pneumonia. All given “best treatment” but 50 randomly selected additionally given high dose Vit D3 in its direct form so as rapidly raise blood levels.

Of the 26 not given D3, 13 (50%) were admitted to ICU and 2 died.

Of those who were given D3, one (2%) was admitted to ICU and none died.

I’ll keep taking the tablets I reckon....

[PeterC]

Yet more evidence of importance of D3:

http://www.drdavidgrimes.com/2020/09/covid-19-and-vitamin-d-more-evidence-of.html

Only reason I can fathom for SAGE not advising a higher dose sufficient to reach a safe serum level is that dosed-up individuals may not show symptoms when infected. So "Test and Trace" will be compromised.

Peter

 

[PeteStupps]

Persuasive evidence Peter but do you buy into the conspiracy angle? I don't see how 'Bill Gates and big pharma' would have any sway with the state-run health industry in Britain. But is that me being hopelessly naive?

Quote

 

But the report from Spain has been completely ignored by the government and its medical-scientific advisors, by the radio and TV news, by the press, and so far even by the medical  and scientific journals. Not even a hint of recognition and enthusiasm.

Why is this? Could it be directed by the Bill Gates and Big Pharma funded WHO? After all vaccines are to be given to the world population. There is big money at stake, and a cheap and safe competitor such as vitamin D is not to be encouraged.

 

 

[PeterC]

2 hours ago, PeteStupps said:

Persuasive evidence Peter but do you buy into the conspiracy angle? I don't see how 'Bill Gates and big pharma' would have any sway with the state-run health industry in Britain. But is that me being hopelessly naive?

 

Pete,  It is curious that the committee that dictates D3 dose ( NICE) uses the same criteria (large RCTs) as drugs do, despite  D3 being a hormone. Such D3 RCTs are never funded because of no profits. Also, the Wellcome/Gates COVID Accelerator expressly forbids funding for hormones. Conspiracy is hard to pin down but we should not dismiss the possibilty:

http://orthomolecular.org/resources/omns/v14n22.shtml

The list of diseases in which D3 is implicated is loooong ( see vitaminDwiki) and if everyone were replete then big pharma would suffer losses of sales and profits. D3 deficiency is global. Their losses could be huge. But our health and longevity would probably improve.

The only good thing about COVID is that some nation somewhere will 'discover' D3. The rest wil follow, until supplies of D3 run out. 

Peter

 

[PeteStupps]

Behind a paywall but there's a column in today's Times from Labour backbencher Rupa Huq about vit D3 and covid. He's trying to persuade the government to take a more active approach recommending supplements. 

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/telling-the-public-to-take-vitamin-d-would-save-lives-bngzt6nkj