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Covid 19, novel corona virus. Split from off-grid thread


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Well I’m still spamming because I think it’s important...... and this seems to bear it out Pity he takes half an hour when it needs 10 minutes tops but anyway..... Trial in a 

Earlier, I posted a link to the Royal Society symposium where several global experts spoke about Covid  and the vaccine.  They only had an hour and the speakers could answer a few questions from their

My work are very much blazing their own trail on this one: we've just been told that, unless pregnant or high risk, everyone must be in the office or will be marked as 'unauthorised leave' with subseq

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8 hours ago, TR5tar said:

No doubt the strict lockdown methods in Italy have slowed new cases and deaths, but the figures continues to grow each day.

I think you are basically asking the same question I asked a bit further up.  Seems that the problem is that the Italians are not conforming so the measures are much less effective than they should be.  Whereas in China they'll be enforcing them...…...

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8 hours ago, TR5tar said:

Hi John, 

I was wondering what your source is for saying that "Spain is now losing more people than Italy." On the site I follow, that doesn't seem to be the case. Today alone, according to the figures I see, there were 5560 new cases in Italy and 651 deaths, whereas in Spain there was 3107 news cases and 375 deaths. It's the US that is coming up fast,  with 8576 new cases detected today.

  

Darren

There seems to be considerable variation between websites, but received wisdom appears to be that the the Johns Hopkins collation is the most comprehensive and is constantly updated (the LSHTM site, for example, has been a day or more behind on figures).  Cross-checking our little backwater here in CEE, it seems to be the only website I've found that maintains pace with the official figures (including downward corrections to misdefined 'cured' numbers)

Paul

 

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Apologies, TR5tar, it's cases, not deaths in which Spain has overtaken Italy.    

In China, the outbreak occurred just as the Chinese New Year holiday was happening.    That was officially prolonged, to prevent people returning to work, and no doubt concentrated the Gov's minds on preventing travel thereafter, as many families will have got togther for the celebrations, bit like our Christmas.    And China is a totalitarian state, where people are used to obeying state orders, unlike Italy.

As Nick says, in Italy avoiding state restrictions, like tax, is a national sport.     Made me wonder about Greece, whose people, I believe, have a similar attitude.    They have Covid too, and have moved immediately to total 'lockdown' with 'only' 624 cases and 15 deaths.

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30 minutes ago, PaulAA said:

Is there a secret 'edit' button I'm not able to see?

Paul

Yup, you need to make a donation :wink:

Making a donation to the upkeep of sideways changes the colour of your username, and gives you editing privileges.

Phil

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Having just used it, can we not think of a better word than 'Lockdown'?

It's an American word used to describe the 'lights-out' procedure in a prison, so it's not inappropriate, but somehow I find it clumsy.

 

Edited by JohnD
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1 hour ago, PaulAA said:

Darren

There seems to be considerable variation between websites, but received wisdom appears to be that the the Johns Hopkins collation is the most comprehensive and is constantly updated (the LSHTM site, for example, has been a day or more behind on figures).  Cross-checking our little backwater here in CEE, it seems to be the only website I've found that maintains pace with the official figures (including downward corrections to misdefined 'cured' numbers)

Paul

 

Thanks for the John Hopkins link Paul. The figures on that site pretty concur with what I've been looking at, although I think as you say they update more quickly. 

28 minutes ago, JohnD said:

Apologies, TR5tar, it's cases, not deaths in which Spain has overtaken Italy.    

In China, the outbreak occurred just as the Chinese New Year holiday was happening.    That was officially prolonged, to prevent people returning to work, and no doubt concentrated the Gov's minds on preventing travel thereafter, as many families will have got togther for the celebrations, bit like our Christmas.    And China is a totalitarian state, where people are used to obeying state orders, unlike Italy.

As Nick says, in Italy avoiding state restrictions, like tax, is a national sport.     Made me wonder about Greece, whose people, I believe, have a similar attitude.    They have Covid too, and have moved immediately to total 'lockdown' with 'only' 624 cases and 15 deaths.

Thanks John. I'm still not seeing where Spain has overtaken Italy, either in total cases, new cases, or deaths. Just looking on the John Hopkins page Paul sent a link to, and it shows Italy as being almost 30K behind Italy in terms of confirmed cases. 

I've now had a chance to read through the paper by Neil Ferguson (nice to know he keeps busy when not refurbishing injectors :laugh:) and it helped clarify things to me.

It increasingly looks like a long "Suppression" is the only way to stop the health service from being overwhelmed, with an easing of restrictions every few months. It seems to me that it's not really about stopping people getting the virus, it's all about when people get it and reducing the numbers of at risk people who get it. 

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40 minutes ago, JohnD said:

Having just used it, can we not think of a better word than 'Lockdown'?

It's an American word used to describe the 'lights-out' procedure in a prison, so it's not inappropriate, but somehow I find it clumsy.

I heartily agree John! I've used it a few times but don't like it. 

How about 'curfew'? Not quite right, I admit, but neither is lockdown. We lock things up don't we?! 

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54 minutes ago, thebrookster said:

Yup, you need to make a donation :wink:

Making a donation to the upkeep of sideways changes the colour of your username, and gives you editing privileges.

Phil

Thanks for the reminder, Phil - I will make another one shortly.

Paul

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3 minutes ago, PeteStupps said:

:laugh:

Except 'hiber' is something to with winter isn't it? Google translate suggests the spring equivalent would be 'vernumnation' or something...

Yes, strictly speaking it is. Although, the word's meaning does seem to have expanded a bit over the years ... computers can go into hibernation at any time of the year :laugh:

But I think you are right Peter, so the search for a better word goes on. How about "Aslongasittakesination" :wacko:  

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1 hour ago, JohnD said:

As Nick says, in Italy avoiding state restrictions, like tax, is a national sport.     Made me wonder about Greece, whose people, I believe, have a similar attitude.    They have Covid too, and have moved immediately to total 'lockdown' with 'only' 624 cases and 15 deaths.

Indeed.  I also wondered about Greece and for the same reasons.  However, I think what has really undone Italy is the ski season, with rather large numbers of the young, vigorous and healthy meeting on the slopes (or more likely in the bars) and catching/sharing the bug around without being much affected themselves then taking it home and passing it on to their aged relatives with the traditional, high-contact Italian greeting.....

Not having too many ski resorts may prove Greece's salvation...… May!

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I should say that when the Uk has been described as the world's leading centre of corporate tax avoidance, it is a bit invidious of me to speak of Italy and Greece in thuis way!

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John, in the Med countries not paying tax is a way of life for much of the population, not just the big companies. 

And there was me thinking other countries had "better"  deals for big corps...... and U2. JCJ negotiated a few deals IIRC.....

 

But this is going off-track. 

Re Skiing, just 10 days ago we were in Austria on the piste. The Apres ski is the issue. One local bar ignored the emergency rules on the Friday night (a max limit per venue, hundred or something). They had about 500 people in there. Police move in, shut the bar, 20,000 euro fine. We were in our Chalet....

So yes, ski resorts not great, but no worse than a crowded supermarket?? I guess we won't ever know all the answers, even in hindsight. I just hope the models the UK govt is using are accurate enough and the planning is good. I think there are no politics involved at all. This really is a case of no political gain to be had, and I hope govt is all pulling in the same direction. Some decisions will be right, some wrong, but all feel like they are being made in good faith. And there is no rule-book for this, it is all reactionary. Flippin glad TM is not still in charge.

 

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I hope many here could act as First Responders, and do CPR on a collapsed person.  It saves lives.

The Resuscitation Council has just released advice in the face of Covid-19, that ABC resuscitaion should OMIT RESCUE BREATHS.   Compressions only.

See: https://www.resus.org.uk/media/statements/resuscitation-council-uk-statements-on-covid-19-coronavirus-cpr-and-resuscitation/covid-community/

John

 

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5 hours ago, Nick Jones said:

As Nick says, in Italy avoiding state restrictions, like tax, is a national sport.     Made me wonder about Greece, whose people, I believe, have a similar attitude. 

Aww, c'mon be fair... this seems to be getting a little close to the 'british exceptionalism' line of thinking for me :)  I've lived in a few EU countries and have family in a few asian ones and all I can say to this is that people are basically the same everywhere (that I've been at least).  The reason the 'lockdown' is stricter in IT/ES/FR etc. is precisely because it started out with the same basic advice as in the UK and everyone ignored it in the same way as people seem to be doing in the UK now.  I don't ever remember thinking in my 30 odd years of living in the UK thinking, 'wow, you know what, this is a country that really loves and abides by state restrictions.'

Skiing theory seems a reasonable hypothesis though, I hadn't thought about it but everyone here has winter holidays.  In the UK there's Christmas I suppose, but it's basically family time so less exposure to randoms - lots of my colleagues had just come back from skiing holidays and, if they hadn't, their kids had - from school/scout trips etc.

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"is that people are basically the same everywhere"

When any of us work in another country we tend to still live the socio- economic lifestyle we always did and still work with our peers in the same socio- economic groups, so although I do not disagree with you the many people are the same everywhere I would not agree that all / most people are the same everywhere.

Alan

 

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Clive makes an interesting point about Boris, to be far, he and his team are doing ok. Cometh the hour, cometh the man...not sure, but how refreshing that the majority of the opposition and other parties are now not attempting to score political gain. 

If this gets much worse, time for a coalition? But the thought of someone like Diane Abbott having a say,  fills me dread.

I understand that Boris is having a press conference at 20.30, sounds interesting, think we may all know what is around the corner.

On the face of it, interesting times.

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I can only see a massive escalation coming this evening.

I've seen on a number of News Feeds that Raab has requested all British National travelling abroad to return asap, if they can. This doesn't include British Nationals living abroad.

Our daughter is 3 and a half months into a 12 month working visa in Australia (Melbourne). I don't know what to advise her - my initial reaction is to stay put as she is safe and staying with an old family friend's daughter. I wouldn't have thought she is the target of Raab's edict this evening as she isn't just on holiday and due back in the next few weeks or so - she has another 8 and a half months to get back. She is 29 so not a child/teenager and is pretty sensible.

Views?

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Rod, that's impossible for us to advise.

I guess it is down the advantages and disadvantages of each scenario. No idea of her setup re medical care is over there, and if insurance is that dependant on following FCO advice (ie if FCO says come home, and you don't, is insurance invalidated?) But in general for young. healthy people it seems unlikely that CV will need intervention. So from that perspective it may not matter where in the world you are. Within reason!

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38 minutes ago, AB|W said:

When any of us work in another country we tend to still live the socio- economic lifestyle we always did and still work with our peers in the same socio- economic groups

I don't know.. I have family that still don't have running water, I've worked on farms, in garages and in investment banks in different countries and I still reckon people are the same anywhere..

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