Nick Jones Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 Thanks John. Love the mechanical one - reminiscent of organ bellows pumps and fixable with hammer pliers and screwdriver. Blame it on China? Bah.... the cabinet did damn-all even with weeks/months warning - need to look a bit nearer home methinks! On brighter note, the John Hopkins figures seem to suggest that infection rates have peaked in most of Europe, even (maybe, hopefully) here. Something odd about Italy (still) as they've more plateau'd that peaked. USA.... who knows little early to say. BIG numbers though. As for South America and Africa..... who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PeterC Posted March 30, 2020 Author Share Posted March 30, 2020 D3 for COVID. hot off the press, USA authors. https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202003.0235/v2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John I Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 28 minutes ago, PeterC said: D3 for COVID. hot off the press, USA authors. https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202003.0235/v2 Interesting Peter, seems to reinforce earlier comments about the benefit of D3 and why Japan is currently so low on cases. High D3 in their fish based diet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zetecspit Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 John, the bit I really don't get is that yes, working towards HI makes some sense, as does keeping infection rate at a "manageable" level and I understand that from a number of angles that manageable probably means stretching the NHS beyond comfort zones, but that will allow HI to be achieved much quicker. But China, Singapore etc? they are nailing infection down to prevent spread. But I can't imagine they will stop it for any length of time. CV is bound to be lurking all over the place, some punters afraid to admit they are ill, others unaware. So they will be constantly fire-fighting until/if a successful vaccine is developed. It won't be easy and no doubt it will be massively disruptive. Re those Merc CPAP thingies, they reckoned that they greatly reduced the numbers needing a ventilator? Makes some sense, many people are likely to need a little breathing help, but maybe not a ventilator (plus they said people on a ventilator need sedating, which needs more medical input??) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulAA Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 1 hour ago, zetecspit said: John, the bit I really don't get is that yes, working towards HI makes some sense, as does keeping infection rate at a "manageable" level and I understand that from a number of angles that manageable probably means stretching the NHS beyond comfort zones, but that will allow HI to be achieved much quicker. But China, Singapore etc? they are nailing infection down to prevent spread. But I can't imagine they will stop it for any length of time. CV is bound to be lurking all over the place, some punters afraid to admit they are ill, others unaware. So they will be constantly fire-fighting until/if a successful vaccine is developed. It won't be easy and no doubt it will be massively disruptive. Clive Worth taking a look at this article. Being The Atlantic magazine, it is from an American perspective, but the prognosis is the same for the whole world. A freshly released study published in Nature magazine also indicate that Sars-CoV-2 has 'learnt' since its last outing as Sars-CoV-1 and is much more adept at infecting its human host, so the outlook has changed (and not for the better) since The Atlantic article was published over the weekend. Simply, this is not going to go away. Paul Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedRooster Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 The gearbox was made by Sturmey-Archer 2 hours ago, JohnD said: The gearbox was made by Sturmey-Archer! Almost as bad a Lucas engineering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnD Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 China, Singapore, Korea, ?Germany? have persisted much longer with the initial stage of containment, identifying, contact tracing and isolating those infected, to slow the spread of infection. The UK gave up early, because WE DIDN'T HAVE THE TEST KITS! Calm, John. Cool green grass. Better, thank you. We really don't know if immunity after infection is long lasting. Even if it is, then this won't stop until 'herd immunity' is enough to stop the spread of infection, like it has done (no more thanks to the antivaxers, and general passive inertia) for measles, etc. And then we don't know if this virus is unstable, like a seasonal flu virus, which presents a new immune challenge every year. Or if, for reasons we don't understand, the summer inhibits 'seasonal' flu and does the same to this. We know so little about it. Did I write about the DNA/RNA vaccines that are being developed? They offer the best and quickest route to a new vaccine, but are something we have never done before! Because we have the genome of CV19 (thank you, China) we can select the piece of Viral RNA that codes for, say, the protein spikes that cover the surface of the virus. Insert that into a "harmless" adenovirus and give that as a vaccine. It's taken up by body cells that synthesise the proteins, and release them into the body, where the immune system recognises them as foreign and attacks them. When a real virus appears, the immune system already has the code to attack the protein. In theory. Previous attempts at this, mainly for people with congenital missing gene diseases, have gone horribly wrong, but it has been very successful more recently. Testing will take months, through animal, then human trials, which all take time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnD Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 5 minutes ago, RedRooster said: The gearbox was made by Sturmey-Archer Almost as bad a Lucas engineering. Why trot out that old canard? The SA gearbox was fine piece of British engineering, that powered millions of bicycles around the world! Lucas had a few problem areas (bullet connectors, for example) but products of the age. Jhn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PeterC Posted March 30, 2020 Author Share Posted March 30, 2020 You can all guess what I am going to say. The entire global population ( withthe exception of the Masai and Hazda tribes) reach nohwere near a phyisological level of 25(OH)D3. If everyone were, the the virus would have much less impact. But we are not, and unitl D3 is supplemented globally or we all dump slip/slap/slop as a bad move I am pessimistic .RNA viruses mutate fast, and often outrun a vaccine, yet we give them a breeding ground by having impaired innate immunity. D3 is the answer, it will be fasianting to see how llong it takes the world to realise. Peter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris W Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 16 hours ago, PaulAA said: Thanks, Chris So you would agree that the infection rate in the UK must be vastly greater than the current level of testing indicates? Indeed, I don't believe I ever disputed that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris W Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 5 hours ago, PeterC said: You can all guess what I am going to say. The entire global population ( withthe exception of the Masai and Hazda tribes) reach nohwere near a phyisological level of 25(OH)D3. If everyone were, the the virus would have much less impact. But we are not, and unitl D3 is supplemented globally or we all dump slip/slap/slop as a bad move I am pessimistic .RNA viruses mutate fast, and often outrun a vaccine, yet we give them a breeding ground by having impaired innate immunity. D3 is the answer, it will be fasianting to see how llong it takes the world to realise. Peter Peter, Can you recommend a reliable online source of D3 tablets please. Cheers Chris Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebrookster Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 4 hours ago, Chris W said: Peter, Can you recommend a reliable online source of D3 tablets please. Cheers Chris These are the ones I bought that Chris, though they are 4000IU!! (I spend most of my working life in a ship's engine room, so D3 intake is rather low to start of with). Vitamin D 4000 IU | 365 Softgel... https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B07HM81L42?ref=ppx_pop_mob_ap_share Cheers, Phil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rod1883 Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 Following the conversation here, and seeing Peter's posts on Vit D in the past, last evening I ordered these - https://www.healthspan.co.uk/products/vitamin-d3-50-plus#/?pack size=180 I'd like to think I/we have a good diet with fresh Fish a couple of times a week (although that is hard to get now), I get outside a lot and have always taken an Omega 3 supplement that has a small amount of Vit C, D and traces of Zinc and Manganese. I think it is time to boost the D3 so hence this purchase. The details says take one a day and that each capsule contains 2000iu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
littlejim Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 11 hours ago, JohnD said: Why trot out that old canard? The SA gearbox was fine piece of British engineering, that powered millions of bicycles around the world! Lucas had a few problem areas (bullet connectors, for example) but products of the age. Jhn As a kid I had a Sturmey Archer 3 speed hub with really easy gear changes. There were people round with derailleur 3 speeds, but you had to get the position right to prevent the 'graunching' noises. It was obvious to me that the future lay with SA gears for bikes and that derailleurs didn't have a future. (sigh!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zetecspit Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 1 hour ago, Rod1883 said: Following the conversation here, and seeing Peter's posts on Vit D in the past, last evening I ordered these - https://www.healthspan.co.uk/products/vitamin-d3-50-plus#/?pack size=180 I'd like to think I/we have a good diet with fresh Fish a couple of times a week (although that is hard to get now), I get outside a lot and have always taken an Omega 3 supplement that has a small amount of Vit C, D and traces of Zinc and Manganese. I think it is time to boost the D3 so hence this purchase. The details says take one a day and that each capsule contains 2000iu. We have been buying the asda/sainsbury 25ug ones, though 5ug is the RDA so even the 25 is 5x RDA. Peter suggests this may not be enough? Can't remember... but its got to be way better than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulAA Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 1 hour ago, Rod1883 said: Following the conversation here, and seeing Peter's posts on Vit D in the past, last evening I ordered these - https://www.healthspan.co.uk/products/vitamin-d3-50-plus#/?pack size=180 I'd like to think I/we have a good diet with fresh Fish a couple of times a week (although that is hard to get now), I get outside a lot and have always taken an Omega 3 supplement that has a small amount of Vit C, D and traces of Zinc and Manganese. I think it is time to boost the D3 so hence this purchase. The details says take one a day and that each capsule contains 2000iu. Rod Worth taking a bigger dose than recommended, to build up reserves - discussed recently here. Paul Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rod1883 Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 Thanks Paul. Interesting stuff. I'm sure it is in the info somewhere, but isn't there a risk of taking too high a dose, or a high dose for too long? A risk of bone decalcification? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulAA Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 Rod Peter C has done quite a lot of research into the subject and has found little evidence of risk associated with overdosing. Absorption is also slow, so it appears that a 'hammer blow' (or several hammer blows) of 50,000 IUs to kick-start the process is not going to increase the risk. Peter also suggested vitamin supplements to counter de-calcification. Paul Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 I too have been taking the 4000IU ones for a couple of weeks as a result of this thread,still upright as of this morning. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PeterC Posted March 31, 2020 Author Share Posted March 31, 2020 10 hours ago, Chris W said: Peter, Can you recommend a reliable online source of D3 tablets please. Cheers Chris https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/Kirkland-Signature-Maximum-Strength-Vitamin-D3-600ct/283699270313?hash=item420dcb52a9:g:o6UAAOSwKKZd59k5 We have used this for three years. Used to be on Amazon. but not there now. One capsule a day, or two if elderly, Peter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PeterC Posted March 31, 2020 Author Share Posted March 31, 2020 re doses https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202003.0235/v2 So if you are worried about over-dosing get your 25(OH)D3 measured by City Assays Birmingham. Then take supplements and/or sun to get to the physiological level of 100-125 nmol/l stated above. But 2000 to 4000 IU pd works for most of us. I sense it is dnagerous to get COVID with a low D3, as borne out by this Italian endocrine prof;s observations: https://www.bmj.com/content/368/bmj.m810/rr-36 Peter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nick Jones Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 Interesting that Vit D levels in the general populations have been typically found to be lower in southern Europe than northern Europe even though you might think they'd be higher due to greater UV exposure........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rod1883 Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 8 minutes ago, Nick Jones said: Interesting that Vit D levels in the general populations have been typically found to be lower in southern Europe than northern Europe even though you might think they'd be higher due to greater UV exposure........ ..only mad dogs and Englishmen, plus other Northern Europeans, go out in the mid-day sun? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PeterC Posted March 31, 2020 Author Share Posted March 31, 2020 2 minutes ago, Nick Jones said: Interesting that Vit D levels in the general populations have been typically found to be lower in southern Europe than northern Europe even though you might think they'd be higher due to greater UV exposure........ Maybe they think only "mad dogs and englishmen go out in the midday sun" ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PeterC Posted March 31, 2020 Author Share Posted March 31, 2020 11 minutes ago, PeterC said: Maybe they think only "mad dogs and englishmen go out in the midday sun" ? Too slow, Peter, too slow.................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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