Covid 19, novel corona virus. Split from off-grid thread

[Rod1883]

Yes, sorry, it's an impossible question.

My initial thought is to stay put and come back after things have settled down. Your comments on insurance are interesting.

We had advised her at the end of last week to contact the Consulate in Melbourne for advice and to be added to their 'mailing list'. We'll talk to her asap to see what her thoughts are.

[PaulAA]

34 minutes ago, TimBancroft said:

Clive makes an interesting point about Boris, to be far, he and his team are doing ok. Cometh the hour, cometh the man...not sure, but how refreshing that the majority of the opposition and other parties are now not attempting to score political gain. 

If this gets much worse, time for a coalition? But the thought of someone like Diane Abbott having a say,  fills me dread.

I understand that Boris is having a press conference at 20.30, sounds interesting, think we may all know what is around the corner.

On the face of it, interesting times.

Tim

Even The Times voiced deep concern this morning that Boris has - and continues - to mishandle this crisis.  Despite all the available information emerging, he thought it appropriate to sit on his thumbs at Chequers for a week about a month ago.  He has changed tack too late and without the prescriptive gravitas that would wake people up to the danger ahead.  Compare/contrast to Andrew Cuomo.  He is not the man for the hour, but he is the only one left, so the country will have to manage despite him.

Paul

[JohnD]

Clearly, the Gov has foreseen the PR penalty when by hundreds of thousands of'travelling'Brits decide they want to come home, then realise that there ait no flights and demand an airlift.    By that time all service staff Will be supporting essentiL.and emergency services and Will be unavailable.    So warm them now, so Job son can say he did and what Sillybilliie they are - sorree!  No rescue!    C!assicDom!

[Nick Jones]

2 hours ago, richy_rich said:

Aww, c'mon be fair... this seems to be getting a little close to the 'british exceptionalism' line of thinking for me

I was....... I did say that I didn't think the Brits would do any better   Though I do think we are slightly better about paying our taxes - or at least Inland Revenue are more aggressive in their collection techniques.  Fat-Cat classes excepted 

People are the same anywhere..... well yes...... basically.  Unless there is too much religion involved.....

[TR5tar]

Useful document for those that which to follow who is doing what in the search for treatments and vaccine ...  https://milkeninstitute.org/sites/default/files/2020-03/Covid19 Tracker 032020v3-posting.pdf 

[thebrookster]

10 hours ago, TimBancroft said:

Clive makes an interesting point about Boris, to be far, he and his team are doing ok. Cometh the hour, cometh the man...not sure, but how refreshing that the majority of the opposition and other parties are now not attempting to score political gain. 

If this gets much worse, time for a coalition? But the thought of someone like Diane Abbott having a say,  fills me dread.

I understand that Boris is having a press conference at 20.30, sounds interesting, think we may all know what is around the corner.

On the face of it, interesting times.

I'm not so sure they are doing okay, they seem to be spending a lot of time reacting to events rather than being pro-active. I may be wrong, but that is how it is coming across in the media (worldwide media, not just British. This is a hot topic at the dinner table in an evening as you might guess, so we get the views from Croatians, Indians, Philopino, Angolan and British).

However, what is beginning to really concern me is the money. Promises of 80% salary for all out of a job etc etc, plus all the additional NHS funding, airline support and all other additional support promised. Where is this money coming from, and who in the long term will have to pay for it? Does this mean that along with another economic crash we will again have further "austerity" measures? Can almost certainly guarantee with the current political scene it will be those who can least afford it who will end up paying for it.

[Nick Jones]

Not sure any national government is going to come out of this well. The Iranians and Italians have the mitigation that by being the first outside China, they were largely blind-sided. Though South Korea seem to be managing better.

The rest though..... not so much.  UK..... just too slow and confusing with mixed messages. Definitely “could do better” on the report card. Hardly alone in that though. Sweden still having the same argument.

Its a very crap decision to have to make though. Crash your health services and let many thousands of your vulnerable die, or crash your economy.....

In the longer term..... who knows. Uncharted territory. Be the taxpayer picking up the tab though, if there are any left.

[zetecspit]

2 hours ago, thebrookster said:

I'm not so sure they are doing okay, they seem to be spending a lot of time reacting to events rather than being pro-active. I may be wrong, but that is how it is coming across in the media (worldwide media, not just British. This is a hot topic at the dinner table in an evening as you might guess, so we get the views from Croatians, Indians, Philopino, Angolan and British).

However, what is beginning to really concern me is the money. Promises of 80% salary for all out of a job etc etc, plus all the additional NHS funding, airline support and all other additional support promised. Where is this money coming from, and who in the long term will have to pay for it? Does this mean that along with another economic crash we will again have further "austerity" measures? Can almost certainly guarantee with the current political scene it will be those who can least afford it who will end up paying for it.

Phil, of course it is reactive, it is fast moving, and experiences from other countries may not be a good fit to the UK. Similarities, yes, but this is all being done on the hoof. I am amazed that the govt is being as quick as it is. Likewise, we have no idea what is going on in the background, the main part of govts job is to keep the population "safe" and part of that is to prevent panic. I get the impression the ramping up of isolation requirements is a response to what happened in the previous days, trying to introduce things, but the public not complying. 

So whats the alternative? Just think what would happen if there was no govt support for businesses etc. The hardship we will likely endure with the current measures would be much worse, and the outcome from those that are struggling would likely be much worse too. Unless somebody has a magic wand?

[PaulAA]

Clive

Right now, there is indeed no alternative and the measures being taken by the UK are far more palatable than the fumbling, partisan nonsense in my neck of the woods, which followed the swift imposition of business closure and enforced social distancing.  Each business here - big or small - has the offer of a Euro 1,000 govt loan to see us through.  Jeez...

However, no Govt in Europe seemed to understand the impact of the virus or learnt the lessons being demonstrated in Hubei in January and February.  Look back at what Johnson was doing to prepare the UK until eight days ago and I wager that there were several alternatives to relaxing at Chequers.

Interesting, YouGov has published a poll today indicating 93% satisfaction with BoJo's performance.  But the same poll indicates 66% of people believe that enforced isolation will be easy.  Over here, we are eight days into a lighter form of isolation - requested rather than enforced - but it is already wearing hard on morale, especially among the over 60s.

Paul

[JohnD]

I've been persuaded that the leak of the Italian plan for continuous curfew (?better than 'lockdown'?) that led to so manytravelling to other parts of the country, can't be the cause of that country's desparate situation.   The incubation period mean that if that migration did lead to infections elsewhere, we will see it next week!

 

[JohnD]

This was Devil's Bridge, Kirkby Lonsdale last Sunday, coffee van with burger van offshot on left.   South Lakes Police were so concerned that they published these pics, but until today had no powers to 'move them on'.    Devil's Bridge is a biker rendezvous, but then bikers KNOW they are immortal.

[zetecspit]

1 hour ago, PaulAA said:

 

However, no Govt in Europe seemed to understand the impact of the virus or learnt the lessons being demonstrated in Hubei in January and February.  Look back at what Johnson was doing to prepare the UK until eight days ago and I wager that there were several alternatives to relaxing at Chequers.

I

They probably had some projections, but the reality is imposing restrictions, which lets remember are massive and all-encompassing, is tricky enough when there is a perceived threat. If the public don't think something is reasonable, it would be much harder to implement. So timing is of the essence. Remember, in the UK the death toll at present is still low, so I am amazed they have got away with the restrictions. I guess the media has been creating some level of paranoia, which has assisted civil obedience. And if the public is really that satisfied with BoJos performance to date, they may be getting things right. 

On another note, I have just seen this. I cannot stand Piers Morgan, odious little man. But this I found hits the nail on the head

 

[Nick Jones]

This is very interesting

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-22/one-third-of-coronavirus-cases-may-show-no-symptom-scmp-reports

Icelandic testing shows nearly 50% of people testing positive have no symptoms......

Also interesting about loss of sense of smell/ taste being a common effect even in those with mild or no symptoms.....

 

[MilesA]

15 minutes ago, Nick Jones said:

 

Also interesting about loss of sense of smell/ taste being a common effect even in those with mild or no symptoms.....

 

This seems to be gaining credibility fast and so could be a useful identifier for hidden carriers - looking out for it in our family.

Miles

[Rod1883]

Interesting picture of the bikers John. We have a similar issue at the top of Bury Hill here in Sussex where a similar number, if not more, were gathered Sunday last as they always do. There is a large car park, grass parking, an onsite kiosk/café and picnic site. I notice this morning the café is closed and the barrier to the car park closed and padlocked.

I agree completely with your view Clive of Piers Morgan, but as you say the tweet sums it up perfectly.

Referring back to our daughter's situation in Melbourne - I read somewhere this morning that Raab's advice seems to have been relaxed a little to 'tourists and short stay travellers' rather than those on longer visa's. She seems fairly relaxed and keeping safe in Melbourne so unless the Consulate there instruct something different, then I think she'll be staying put.

[JohnD]

Whenever I hear the name "Piers Morgan", I think of the other definition of "countryside".

[Nick Jones]

While the crowds out enjoying nature clearly have serious issues just now, should we not perhaps also consider that for the first time in months (literally) the rain has stopped and the sun had come out. Of course people have come out of their caves!

Father and I had a conversation (phone!) a week or so back where he observed that for the first time this year there had been nothing in his rain gauge that morning. He actually reckoned it was the first time for four months!  I know it’s wetter than some places down here in the south west but even so.....  I know my solar panel output meter hasn’t moved much.... Probably as much output in the last 3 days as the rest of the year in total.

[PeterC]

2 hours ago, Nick Jones said:

This is very interesting

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-22/one-third-of-coronavirus-cases-may-show-no-symptom-scmp-reports

Icelandic testing shows nearly 50% of people testing positive have no symptoms......

Also interesting about loss of sense of smell/ taste being a common effect even in those with mild or no symptoms.....

 

Icelanders eat a lot of fish !.................D3 > innate immunity

[PeterC]

18 minutes ago, PeterC said:

Icelanders eat a lot of fish !.................D3 > innate immunity

https://www.quora.com/Which-country-eats-the-most-fish

Maldives anyone? fish and sunshine !!

[JohnD]

Had a ?brilliant? idea yesterday.     I went out and got a new cylinder of welding gas.

That wasn't the idea, but when I got home and had washed my hands, I then thought, what about the cylinder?  The business I got it from were exemplary, using gloves, and bringing it to my car, leaving it 2 m away, but I'll need to handle it in the garage, and the virus stays on hard surfaces for days.    Then I thought - brake cleaner!

   When we handwash the idea is two-fold.   Soap disrupts the lipid bilayer of viral particles that envelops and protects the RNA inside, and holds the protein spikes (capsids) covering its surface, that bind to cells and force them open;  then the abrasion of washing, thoroughly, for at least 20 secs, removes the virus so that it can be washed away.      Brake cleaner can be a mixture of aromatic hydrocarbons, but it is sovereign for dissolving greases and fats!    It will disrupt that lipid bilayer!    A thorough wipe with blue roll paper and it's bugs away!

No idea if this is valid.    Can't find any papers on it, but a patent says that "nonionic surface active agents having ether or amide or ester linkages either alone or in combination rapidly inactivate herpes simplex virus infectivity."  Herpes is, of course , the cold sore virus which is a DNA virus, but has the same sort of lipid bilayer coat, so that would support my conjecture¬!

Many of you will have brake cleaner in your garage, so here's a way to decontaminate hard surfaced items that come into the home.

John

 

[zetecspit]

Re Iceland, it isn't just the fish. I remember some odd program Fromm years ago, where they investigated which countries had the healthiest diet. Iceland came out high, possibly best. I remember the family of Guinea pigs talking about how good that is "messed with" least is best.  Try selling that idea to half the UK population....

So it could be many things, bit naughty to claim d3 is the reason, poor science!

 

And John, ahead of you! Commented to the Mrs a week ago that brake cleaner should work. If siap breaks down a lipid layer, brake cleaner will also but much more aggressive. Not so good for the skin though!

Just found a stash of wipes in the garage, and I remember some hand sanitizer living in the Toledo since one of the rbrr's, but seems to be missing now.

[Millstone10]

I know there's allot of info out there but this one seemed informative and simple...

From the eminent pathologist Dr James Robb:
Date: February 26, 2020
Subject: What I am doing for the upcoming COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic.
 
Dear Colleagues, as some of you may recall, when I was a professor of pathology at the University of California San Diego, I was one of the first molecular virologists in the world to work on coronaviruses (the 1970s). I was the first to demonstrate the number of genes the virus contained. Since then, I have kept up with the coronavirus field and its multiple clinical transfers into the human population (e.g., SARS, MERS), from different animal sources.
The current projections for its expansion in the US are only probable, due to continued insufficient worldwide data, but it is most likely to be widespread in the US by mid to late March and April.
Here is what I have done and the precautions that I take and will take. These are the same precautions I currently use during our influenza seasons, except for the mask and gloves.:
1) NO HANDSHAKING! Use a fist bump, slight bow, elbow bump, etc.
2) Use ONLY your knuckle to touch light switches. elevator buttons, etc.. Lift the gasoline dispenser with a paper towel or use a disposable glove.
3) Open doors with your closed fist or hip – do not grasp the handle with your hand, unless there is no other way to open the door. Especially important on bathroom and post office/commercial doors.
4) Use disinfectant wipes at the stores when they are available, including wiping the handle and child seat in grocery carts.
5) Wash your hands with soap for 10-20 seconds and/or use a greater than 60% alcohol-based hand sanitizer whenever you return home from ANY activity that involves locations where other people have been.
6) Keep a bottle of sanitizer available at each of your home’s entrances. AND in your car for use after getting gas or touching other contaminated objects when you can’t immediately wash your hands.
7) If possible, cough or sneeze into a disposable tissue and discard. Use your elbow only if you have to. The clothing on your elbow will contain infectious virus that can be passed on for up to a week or more!
What I have stocked in preparation for the pandemic spread to the US:
1) Latex or nitrile latex disposable gloves for use when going shopping, using the gasoline pump, and all other outside activity when you come in contact with contaminated areas.
Note: This virus is spread in large droplets by coughing and sneezing. This means that the air will not infect you! BUT all the surfaces where these droplets land are infectious for about a week on average – everything that is associated with infected people will be contaminated and potentially infectious. The virus is on surfaces and you will not be infected unless your unprotected face is directly coughed or sneezed upon. This virus only has cell receptors for lung cells (it only infects your lungs) The only way for the virus to infect you is through your nose or mouth via your hands or an infected cough or sneeze onto or into your nose or mouth.
2) Stock up now with disposable surgical masks and use them to prevent you from touching your nose and/or mouth (We touch our nose/mouth 90X/day without knowing it!). This is the only way this virus can infect you – it is lung-specific. The mask will not prevent the virus in a direct sneeze from getting into your nose or mouth – it is only to keep you from touching your nose or mouth.
3) Stock up now with hand sanitizers and latex/nitrile gloves (get the appropriate sizes for your family). The hand sanitizers must be alcohol-based and greater than 60% alcohol to be effective.
4) Stock up now with zinc lozenges. These lozenges have been proven to be effective in blocking coronavirus (and most other viruses) from multiplying in your throat and nasopharynx. Use as directed several times each day when you begin to feel ANY "cold-like” symptoms beginning. It is best to lie down and let the lozenge dissolve in the back of your throat and nasopharynx. Cold-Eeze lozenges is one brand available, but there are other brands available.
I, as many others do, hope that this pandemic will be reasonably contained, BUT I personally do not think it will be. Humans have never seen this snake-associated virus before and have no internal defense against it. Tremendous worldwide efforts are being made to understand the molecular and clinical virology of this virus. Unbelievable molecular knowledge about the genomics, structure, and virulence of this virus has already been achieved. BUT, there will be NO drugs or vaccines available this year to protect us or limit the infection within us. Only symptomatic support is available.
I hope these personal thoughts will be helpful during this potentially catastrophic pandemic. You are welcome to share this email. Good luck to all of us! Jim
James Robb, MD FCAP

Dr. Robb is a recognized expert in biospecimen science with over 50 years of experience in molecular pathology, virology, and genetics. He is board certified in anatomic pathology, clinical pathology, cytopathology, and dermatopathology. Dr. Robb is a consulting pathologist to the National Cancer Institute (NCI) and the Office of Biorepositories and Biospecimen Research (OBBR).

[Nick Jones]

Peter, Clive, while your dietetic observations are interesting and may very well be relevant, what I found interesting was (again) that when comprehensive testing of populations is done, the infection rate is much higher than previously thought.  This might mean that we are further "along the curve" than we think and may go some way to explaining the latest Chinese figures, which seem to be widely disbelieved.

While testing the sick is obviously and necessarily the focus, testing the well (apparently well?) could prove extremely illuminating.  On a personal note, the company I work for has ten employees.  8 based in the same office.  Two of the office based are quite poorly with fever and persistent coughs among their symptoms, though they have been affected for  a couple of weeks now (since before the big scare) and don't have any particular risk factors (unless you count proximity to small children!).  Though they are both described as "CV19 probable", are quarantined (and one lives with a nurse who is now unable to work), nobody is remotely interested in testing them.  Additionally, the bosses wife was really quite ill last week (she does have a mild immune issue) and NHS England were interested to send someone out to check her.  Also described as C19 probable, but no interest in actual testing.  I've had no direct contact with any of them in the official risk window.  Today I have a slightly scratchy throat, the occasional shiver (though temp measures normal), but otherwise fine...…  So is it?  Or not.  No way to tell...…. 

[TR5tar]

One thing I've wondered about is whether there is a trace left in the system. For instance, let's say someone has the virus but shows little or no symptoms, and so doesn't know that he/she has it. That person then recovers. Can a test tell if it's been present in the system and then gone?

Darren   

[Rod1883]

There should be antibodies produced in the blood that fight the viral infection and these can be detected afterwards I believe.

I'm no expert, I'm sure someone who knows far more than me can expand/correct......