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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51366123

Our government lives in cloud cuckoo land.

Where is the enrgy coming from, and how will it be distributed? And it the energy is not green will it mean less CO2?

Energy, annually:   20 milion cars use ca 20hp on average for 12.000 miles per year= 300 hours at 40 mph Total: 6000 hphrs x 20 million

I hp = 0.75kW         So 90 billion kWh = 90 million MWh = 90,000 GWh = 90 TWh

Current annual UK electrical energy generation: 335 TWh

SO energy needed to replace fossil fuelled cars with electric raises elec consumption by 27%

Power

UK Power supply has marginal capacity especially wienter weekdays:

http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/

there is ca 27% spare generating cpacity at night, using CCGTs. But they are only marginally more CO2 efficient than good turbo di diesel.

And in a winter blocking high pressure event ( beast from the east) wind will fall to near zero, and cars fail.

Distribution

12000 miles per year needs daily battery top up of ca 15 KWh. On a domestic supply of 13 amps recharge rate is 3 kW. So 5  hours overnight charge needed to drive ca 33 miles That is do-able.

But fast charging means huge power demand and infrastructure. For a 200 mile battery to charge in say 15 minutes needs a power supply of roughly 28-fold faster: 90 KW.  If a filling station has to have capacity to fill say 1 car per minute, that's 15 being filled at any one time, and the local supply has to heve capacity of  1.35 MW

This is a 1MW substation: https://transformers-magazine.com/tm-news/1625-itm-power-builds-new-1-mw-substation-for-factory-acceptance-testing-transformer/

.

Peter

 

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Stop being logical and analytical, Peter - that is clearly not part of the "there's no climate crisis" narrative.

... and thank you for setting this out so irrefutably.  Now wait for the gainsayers in 3, 2, 1...

Paul

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I think you've misinterpreted the gist Paul. This isn't about whether the need exists, it's about the impracticality of the new Government intentions. Two different issues. 

Peter is absolutely right - present infrastructure just cannot handle the demand and large investment would be needed to upgrade it. ( Upgrading which would inevitably involve considerable generation of extra CO2 by the way - lots of extra steel and concrete).  

Aside from the large amount of real-estate necessary for all those charging stations, the crunch comes when decisions have to be made on power generation. Either cars don't get charged when the wind doesn't blow, or people get used to sitting in the dark, or we have to build more real power stations to satisfy the 30% extra demand. 

It will be interesting to see how long it takes for realisation to dawn among the politicians. 

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And there in is the key. Politicians. They can make policy, but just like every other big project (and this is way bigger than HS2 or any other infrastructure project) it won't be delivered on time or on budget. Not that they have thought about starting the serious stuff yet.

Buy he time 2035 comes along, I will be almost 70, and the current crop of politicians on all sides will be dozing in the House of Lords after a decent lunch and bottle of red.....

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22 minutes ago, PaulAA said:

Stop being logical and analytical, Peter - that is clearly not part of the "there's no climate crisis" narrative.

... and thank you for setting this out so irrefutably.  Now wait for the gainsayers in 3, 2, 1...

Paul

Paul,   There's more !............

This is a 3.6 MW ic onshore wind turbine:

Its output falls rapidly as wind speed drops (cube law): 3.6MW above 40 mph, but only  450kW at 20mph

Around here w/ts work at around 25% of ic, so this w/t would generate ca 800 kW averaged over a year.

800 kW is enought to power ca 50   20hp cars ( each 15 kW) at any one time.

If a car is driven 1 hour every day that's energy enough for 1200 cars only

That w/t costs ca £3M so the capital cost of green wind power per car is around £2500.

That doesnt seem to bad. But 20 miilion cars would need 20,000 wind turbines, each of which needs ca 1 km of free air around it.

Wind in the hair motoring ?

Peter

 

 

 

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31 minutes ago, DeTRacted said:

I think you've misinterpreted the gist Paul. This isn't about whether the need exists, it's about the impracticality of the new Government intentions. Two different issues. 

Peter is absolutely right - present infrastructure just cannot handle the demand and large investment would be needed to upgrade it. ( Upgrading which would inevitably involve considerable generation of extra CO2 by the way - lots of extra steel and concrete).  

Aside from the large amount of real-estate necessary for all those charging stations, the crunch comes when decisions have to be made on power generation. Either cars don't get charged when the wind doesn't blow, or people get used to sitting in the dark, or we have to build more real power stations to satisfy the 30% extra demand. 

It will be interesting to see how long it takes for realisation to dawn among the politicians. 

Now we can see where those new generation smart meters fit in !  when power is available they can charge more for it.

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Did a job on wind farms a few years back, what made me laugh was the central distribution platform was diesel powered and had to be refueled every 3 days.

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21 hours ago, RedRooster said:

Did a job on wind farms a few years back, what made me laugh was the central distribution platform was diesel powered and had to be refueled every 3 days.

Reminds me of a rogue w/t operator who fired up a big diesel genset to cover periods when the wind didnt blow, and claimed the feed-in tariff.

 

 

 

 

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On 2/4/2020 at 4:23 PM, zetecspit said:

And there in is the key. Politicians. They can make policy, but just like every other big project (and this is way bigger than HS2 or any other infrastructure project) it won't be delivered on time or on budget. Not that they have thought about starting the serious stuff yet.

Buy he time 2035 comes along, I will be almost 70, and the current crop of politicians on all sides will be dozing in the House of Lords after a decent lunch and bottle of red.....

..and I'll be 75 (goodness that's sobering)

The politicians you mention having their afternoon snooze in the Lords will be on circa £700 a day tax free by then too!

Seriously though excellent stuff Peter - worthy of a suitably phrased question to your MP?

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A UK car is driven ca 20 miles per day, So a plug-in hybrid should be able to cover a couple of days driving with home off-peak charging, and never burning fuel. A hybrid's battery that's OK for 50 miles is considerably lighter than a 250 mile battery, with resulting energy savings. A hybrid removes range-angst and solves much of the infrastructure issues re fast-charging.  The 2035 ban on plug-in hybrids may well  result in a slower adoption of e-traction by the public. And condemns the UK to building a hugely expensive away-fast-charging power distribution network. OK a PHEV will still use fossil fuel for the odd long trip, but overall it would be at a much reduced rate, and taxing it will ensure it is not abused.  HMG needs to rethink the PHEV 2035 ban.

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Hah, i work in the power industry and i have quite a few friends who own Tesla's and Leaf's.  

To clear up a few things

Ionity chargers are rapid chargers mainly on the motorway network, they are no more expensive than motorway services for petrol or diesel.

A Tesla supercharger to charge on to 80% is about £22 for 250miles, charging at home at the current rates is pretty similar £25-30 so it is cheaper, however it doesn't offset the extra expense of buying one!

My next car will be a PHEV i'm pretty sure, its the only thing that can come close to my Diesel for mileage vs cost.

 

Your right Pete but there is a bigger problem than what you currently see on GridWatch (notice we are almost always importing from france btw, we are still friends aren't we???)

The bigger problem with the Governments plan is by 2030 70% of the UKs Nuclear capacity will be decommissioned, coal is nearly all gone already, assuming they actually get Hinkley Point C working  on time (they haven't yet managed to get one working) it will only just be Synchronised with the grid by then and will only make up the shortfall for the 5 other Nuclear stations that will have closed by then if they are running at full capacity 24/7, history proves that new reactors take years to get stable and they have to go offline for 2 months every year and a half for maintenance and inspections.

Nuclear is a necessary evil to provide the base load and the government is very reluctant to invest in it due to the public backlash, i'm not convinced in the mega reactors they are building now, but mini reactors are the future in the current technology.

No matter how many wind farms you have or solar arrays it isn't able to give on demand power 24/7 when we need it (there has to be daylight and there has to be Wind), currently there is only one battery array i know of to store this energy, there isn't enough Hydro Electric damns to generate more, so we end up burning more gas in the CCGT power stations or importing more over the transatlantic lines.

Ultimately it means we will all pay more for everything, and by more i mean a lot more!

The solution they have is smart meters and the smart grid, but that relies on everyone not having to charge their car at the same time, not the same time as factories etc etc, you still need power and thats before they start banning Gas in homes (which apparently is coming!)

 

The grid has bigger problems with this philosophy...

There is Black Start (when you loose the whole National Grid and have to start everything over) is near impossible with the 2030 grid infrastructure, most power stations need a good few hundred MWs sustained for a number of hours just to get Synchronised before generating any power, where does that come from?

And then even cooling the power stations when they shutdown is problematic, mostly they use big diesel ship engines to provide cooling! hardly the Green philosophy! 

Edited by mattius

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I gather that the grid is so precariously balanced that when the wind fails over much of  the UK, Tesco etc are paid to turn off all their fridges and freezers.

 

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Not currently that bad, but has been a few time in the past few years! usually more like big manufacturing like British Steel etc. people who buy their electricity in bulk but the supermarkets are a small part of that.

Its kind of like what they are planning for the smart meter network, under the disguise its for our benefit in more accurate bills etc, its actually a necessity! and it remains to be proven!

You only have to look at Australia and the problems they are having to know how bad it can get, they are investing heavily in Battery as their solution to balance the grid.

I have large concerns over what happens to all these batteries! When the cars are done with them, they go into power station battery arrays, when they are done with them they go where? If you want a bloody good long term investment, find a battery recycling company!

Edited by mattius
Typo

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36 minutes ago, mattius said:

Hah, i work in the power industry and i have quite a few friends who own Tesla's and Leaf's.  

To clear up a few things

Ionity chargers are rapid chargers mainly on the motorway network, they are no more expensive than motorway services for petrol or diesel.

A Tesla supercharger to charge on to 80% is about £22 for 250miles, charging at home at the current rates is pretty similar £25-30 so it is cheaper, however it doesn't offset the extra expense of buying one!

My next car will be a PHEV i'm pretty sure, its the only thing that can come close to my Diesel for mileage vs cost.

 

The problem with the Governments plan is by 2030 70% of the UKs Nuclear capacity will be decommissioned, coal is nearly all gone already, assuming they actually get Hinkley Point C working  on time (they haven't yet managed to get one working) it will only just be Synchronised with the grid by then and will only make up the shortfall for the 5 other Nuclear stations that will have closed by then if they are running at full capacity 24/7, history proves that new reactors take years to get stable and they have to go offline for 2 months every year and a half for maintenance and inspections.

Nuclear is a necessary evil to provide the base load and the government is very reluctant to invest in it due to the public backlash, i'm not convinced in the mega reactors they are building now, but mini reactors are the future in the current technology.

No matter how many wind farms you have or solar arrays it isn't able to give on demand power 24/7 when we need it (there has to be daylight and there has to be Wind), currently there is only one battery array i know of to store this energy, there isn't enough Hydro Electric damns to generate more, so we end up burning more gas in the CCGT power stations or importing more over the transatlantic lines.

Ultimately it means we will all pay more for everything, and by more i mean a lot more!

The solution they have is smart meters and the smart grid, but that relies on everyone not having to charge their car at the same time, not the same time as factories etc etc, you still need power and thats before they start banning Gas in homes (which apparently is coming!)

 

The grid has bigger problems with this philosophy...

There is Black Start (when you loose the whole National Grid and have to start everything over) is near impossible with the 2030 grid infrastructure, most power stations need a good few hundred MWs sustained for a number of hours just to get Synchronised before generating any power, where does that come from?

And then even cooling the power stations when they shutdown is problematic, mostly they use big diesel ship engines to provide cooling! hardly the Green philosophy! 

 

 

 

 

 

And along comes another Carrington Event

We lose our water supply in an outage. I really should think hard about solar PV and big battery and inverter. But I would not know who to trust to design and install..

 

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Haha was discussing that the other day, it creates an interesting problem people having home batteries!

There is no way currently of isolating them from the grid remotely, so say for instance they need to work on the main power cable to your street, currently they can cut the power and mostly the power is gone, if you have a big battery, feeding your house, it then can feed back to the grid! hence suddenly the cable in the street is live!

I believe Tesla have solved this with their power walls, but again $$$$ 

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P.s. look what happened in London in August, lightning strike hit one substation,  a wind farm went offline, and suddenly the frequency of the grid dropped below 50hz and the national grid had to shut down most of London to retain critical infrastructure.

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8 hours ago, mattius said:

if you have a big battery, feeding your house, it then can feed back to the grid!

This is something I was wondering about when I looked into this stuff a while a go.  In the house I was thinking of installing it in I had a way of cutting the link to the main power, so I could, if there was a power failure, flip the switch and plug a generator in to keep the freezer running.  The house was in Europe, so most things were on separate fused circuits too which meant I wouldn't accidentally blow the generator up by overloading it (i.e. making it try to power the whole house).

The question I have is this, if your big battery starts feeding back into the grid - won't it immediately go flat from powering (or trying to) the whole street?

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I hope the hydrogen powered cars get a go on.

Makes more sense to me than 'lectric.

Over here people travel enormous distances at holiday time; waiting for the 'lectric to charge (there and back) would consume a fair bit of the holiday.

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1 hour ago, richy_rich said:

This is something I was wondering about when I looked into this stuff a while a go.  In the house I was thinking of installing it in I had a way of cutting the link to the main power, so I could, if there was a power failure, flip the switch and plug a generator in to keep the freezer running.  The house was in Europe, so most things were on separate fused circuits too which meant I wouldn't accidentally blow the generator up by overloading it (i.e. making it try to power the whole house).

The question I have is this, if your big battery starts feeding back into the grid - won't it immediately go flat from powering (or trying to) the whole street?

Interesting debate and question.

Isn't there a similar issue with Solar panels making the street 'live' when power has been cut - especially if a number of properties on that street have panels?

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Yes..... solar panel installs with a grid connection have to have an auto cut-off. No grid power.... no solar.

The linemen don’t trust them though. We’ve twice had trines come down within 100m of the house and the guys that come to fix them always want to know about the panels..... Paranoid line of work - for obvious reasons!

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1 hour ago, littlejim said:

I hope the hydrogen powered cars get a go on.

Makes more sense to me than 'lectric.

Over here people travel enormous distances at holiday time; waiting for the 'lectric to charge (there and back) would consume a fair bit of the holiday.

Yeah..... there have been trials. BMW in particular.

However, low energy density, very hard to store - plus significant safety issues. It sneaks out of the tiniest cracks and has very low ignition energy......

I wouldn’t mind an electric car in the households. 6 days a week , most weeks, the range would be enough for either of us (40 mile round trip commute).

I do still have 2 - 300 mile days most weeks though and I can’t afford a Tesla.

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13 hours ago, PeterC said:

A UK car is driven ca 20 miles per day, So a plug-in hybrid should be able to cover a couple of days driving with home off-peak charging, and never burning fuel. A hybrid's battery that's OK for 50 miles is considerably lighter than a 250 mile battery, with resulting energy savings. A hybrid removes range-angst and solves much of the infrastructure issues re fast-charging.  The 2035 ban on plug-in hybrids may well  result in a slower adoption of e-traction by the public. And condemns the UK to building a hugely expensive away-fast-charging power distribution network. OK a PHEV will still use fossil fuel for the odd long trip, but overall it would be at a much reduced rate, and taxing it will ensure it is not abused.  HMG needs to rethink the PHEV 2035 ban.

Exactly how we use our Golf PHEV.  Around town on battery and all the way to Shetland without worry. Ours has about 30 mile range in summer and 20 in winter. The next version of the Golf GTE (due in the summer) will have a slightly longer range (50 miles).
We charge it over night or on s sunny day in the daytime with a low charge rate to suit our solar panels, 
Also if we use it on a motorway journey we usually end up with more power in the battery due to the regenerative braking charging the battery.

Mike

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The life of an EV's battery is currently (sorry about that) 6-7 years.  After that, output and range start to decline rapidly.   

I've heard that a market in used EV batteries is already developing, for people to use to back up their domstic solar and wind generation.     You can house half a dozen old EV battery packs in a small shed or basement, and their degradation doesn't matter.

J.

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