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PaulAA

May's Brexit Plan

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A leave victory in the Ref was not a disaster. What followed was a disaster.

From the beginning the cabinet should have spent 3 months organsing a plan to present to the EU. This would have included all leaders of parties in its construction.

They should have had Victoria Coren on the team (professional poker player) 

The plan should have been simple and tempting.

 

Part one of the plan is we leave on 29 March 2019

or 

Part two - we maintain our trading links with the EU. eg we give them cars, they give theirs to us - everything on a reciprocal agreement - everything.

All partnerships are maintained = aerospace, science, crime etc etc

Tourism remains as is

Working remains as is

We give them a one off lump sum to over come any internal EU hic-cups. 

We become a stand alone nation working and trading with the EU

Let the EU have the choice

 

Roger

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I think the problem there is the EU is afraid we will import stuff from elsewhere at low tariffs, and feed them into the EU tariff free.

Or maybe they are afraid we will pull a junker and some of the big company hq's in Luxembourg may be tempted away? We could become offshore Europe with free access. That would be good for us, but bad for a them. But ultimately I am convinced it usually about putting others off leaving.

It may have been better to use a carrot rather than a stick

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The plan to remove our tariffs on impoerts AFAIK still stands. So a rigorously policed border between Eire and NI wont be needed on UK side. But Varadkar will have to install customs checks on traffic going inot Eire, to comply with EU tariffs. He has a big problem if EU dont shift ground and deliver a brexit agreement Westminster parliament can agree to.

Peter

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On 3/19/2019 at 7:46 PM, zetecspit said:

In fact, through all this, nobody has really done anything to give good reasons why remain is a better option. Apart from just saying it is, and rolling out the same old  "project fear" guff. Surely a missed opportunity if they are serious? 

And As to the remain campaign, it was so unimaginative and unappealing, it could be said to have been as dull as ditchwater, compared to the hope and bright future leave promised. And that is one huge problem.

 

On 3/19/2019 at 8:04 PM, Bumblebee said:

Sorry John! I had a brain vomit in essay format....

:biggrin:

Andy it was a good brain dump and on the well balananced. i have never had a problem with anyone who voted brexit based on reasoned argument, remarkably i still have an odd friend or two who voted brexit (we have agreed to not discuss the subject!). and i have to admit that the reason many also voted remain was probably also influenced by a good dose of emotional argument about why being together as a family was better than isolationist. 

but as both of you highlighted the brexit vote probably came at the time of the perfect storm 9 and there are emeging stories about how some of those around cameron saw and exploited this. 

but we had britain in financial austerity still nearly a decade after the financial crash, with effective wages still falling and massive cut back in services that were really hurting real people, medium income families and older generation finding out that they or their relatives instead of as promised over their lifetimes in old age were likely to be hit hard financially or just by the prospect of lower standards of care. a (i'm loath to use the term) but working class generation that our school, further education, complete lack of any industrial future business, training oportunities. that prospect wise had dropped millions into almost zero prospect of anything getting better futures.

whilst at the same time seeing on the news an alien hoard apparently in it millions pouring out of africa, the middle east an eastern europe keen to grasp the last vestages of our welfare state, un checked apparently by an eu that seemed to say if you here you can go and live/do /work where you want.

now we could in for icing how the news was also full about how nasty the eu was being to the poor people of greece who had borrowed a whole shed load of money squndered it, had no means to pay it back, and looked fairly dodgey as a bet lending them enough to buy  a glass of oozo, and that fiasco just showed how unstable the whole of europe's financial structure was, how nasty and bullying the eu elite were by forcing the issue was tackled, oh and the uk will be lucky even though not involved in the euro not to have to help cover the cost.

 

and then you ask an electorate to vote if they want to leave the eu? which if we assume normal world geographics are made of 10% who are too dumb to be given a sheet of paper for fear of what damage they would do to themselves or others with it, 20 % so apathetic they have no concept what voting is for, let alone how to do it, 30% who's grasp of anthing to do with how an economy or social society  has to operate if it for the general rather than individuals benefit, so with a bit of luck at an election you end up with about 40% of the population that you hope might apply some thought and rational into what they are voting for

add to this the most lacklustre campaign for remain it was probably possible to run, that basically said your married, there's a lot about the marriage you don't like, but honestly the good bits which its hard to quantify do outweigh the negatives, divorce and you will see what we mean. just stick with it. contrast that with a leave campaign that at a superficial  level promised that if you quit the relationhip, you were going to be financially way better off, and all those things about the marriage you didn't like would be a thing of the past.

i'd suggest that 40% of the electorate who  voted on some grasp of the real implication of what they were doing, leave or remain, 5% against because they still haven't forgotten the war, and the rest was a pattern of voting based probably more on how much someone's emotions has been  raised during the campaign and if they thought remain or brexit would resolve their concerns.

i'd suggest that the vote could easily have dropped either way. my regret was it fell they way it did, which has really torn apart the middle reasoning fabric of our society, that will be damaging for a long time, whereas it it fell the other way it may have prompted a period (all be it a long one) where some rational change within the eu would have evolved as it will do without us in it anyway.

 

OK THIS REALLY REALLY IS MY LAST COMMENT ON THIS TOPIC. I WILL NOT RESPOND FURTHER, THE OUTCOME IS UP IN THE AIR AND AS INDIVIDUALS WE CAN NOW HAVE ZERO EFFECT ON  WHAT HAPPENS, UNLESS WE EITHER GET THE CHANCE TO ELECT A NEW PARLIAMENT OR THE CHANCE TO VOTE ON WHICH COURSE WE BELIEVE THE COUNTRY SHOULD TAKE GIVEN WHAT WE NOW THINK WE KNOW.  

ALAN( who can brain dump as long as Andy!

 

 

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Now's your chance, petition to revoke Article 50.   Now stands at over 1.8 Million signatures.    Can't post a lonl from. my phone but easy enough to find!

Jphn

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Beat me to it John. Four more signatures from our household.......

2,002,343 just now........

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3 hours ago, Nick Jones said:

Beat me to it John. Four more signatures from our household.......

2,002,343 just now........

I don't believe MPs have the cajones for this option.

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6 hours ago, oldtuckunder said:

 

i'd suggest that the vote could easily have dropped either way. my regret was it fell they way it did, which has really torn apart the middle reasoning fabric of our society, that will be damaging for a long time, whereas it it fell the other way it may have prompted a period (all be it a long one) where some rational change within the eu would have evolved as it will do without us in it anyway.

I know you are not commenting further but I don't understand your argument here.

If we had voted not to leave the EU, they would, quite reasonably, taken the message that the UK voting public are happy with the way things are going.  We voted to leave but all the messages from EU leaders are about ever closer union without the UK acting as a drag anchor.

Brexit or no Brexit, the EU project has a direction of travel and the UK was never going to stop it.

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13 hours ago, PeterC said:

The plan to remove our tariffs on impoerts AFAIK still stands. So a rigorously policed border between Eire and NI wont be needed on UK side.

Think I mentioned this before, but one problem with that is that you're effectively giving the EU (via Ireland) direct access to the UK, which could be considered preferential access and, without a trade agreement in place leave the UK in breach of WTO rules.

In other terms - countries that you don't have a trade agreement with and with whom you're dealing on WTO terms will start asking why their goods need to go through customs and have tariffs applied, but anything from the EU just nips in via Ireland.  They'll rightly want to redress this, I'm not certain how WTO arbitration works but I imagine it's much like how the EUCJ works - anyway, I mention this just to point out that this problem (by far from the biggest, I think) does exist in both directions. 

 

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1 hour ago, richy_rich said:

Think I mentioned this before, but one problem with that is that you're effectively giving the EU (via Ireland) direct access to the UK, which could be considered preferential access and, without a trade agreement in place leave the UK in breach of WTO rules.

In other terms - countries that you don't have a trade agreement with and with whom you're dealing on WTO terms will start asking why their goods need to go through customs and have tariffs applied, but anything from the EU just nips in via Ireland.  They'll rightly want to redress this, I'm not certain how WTO arbitration works but I imagine it's much like how the EUCJ works - anyway, I mention this just to point out that this problem (by far from the biggest, I think) does exist in both directions. 

 

There appears to be a certain mindset that a hard Brexit is appealing primarily for the damage it will do to other EU countries.

I'm not sure I understand why.

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Bargaining chip....

We don't want to harm the EU, but as in all negotiations both sides want to gain as much advantage as possible. 

But I do think there are a few people out there who expect the EU to give in to all sorts of stuff to accommodate us. Which is daft. We need to fit in with the EU if we wish to trade (which is really what both sides want)

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7 hours ago, Chris W said:

I don't believe MPs have the cajones for this option.

You are probably correct. Self-serving lot mostly.

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19 hours ago, richy_rich said:

Think I mentioned this before, but one problem with that is that you're effectively giving the EU (via Ireland) direct access to the UK, which could be considered preferential access and, without a trade agreement in place leave the UK in breach of WTO rules.

In other terms - countries that you don't have a trade agreement with and with whom you're dealing on WTO terms will start asking why their goods need to go through customs and have tariffs applied, but anything from the EU just nips in via Ireland.  They'll rightly want to redress this, I'm not certain how WTO arbitration works but I imagine it's much like how the EUCJ works - anyway, I mention this just to point out that this problem (by far from the biggest, I think) does exist in both directions. 

I might have this wrong, I haven't researched it but so far as I understand it the Tariff reductions are intended to apply to all countries, not just the EU.  As you say, they can't be selectively applied in the absence of an FTA.

 

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On 3/22/2019 at 7:44 AM, PaulAA said:

There appears to be a certain mindset that a hard Brexit is appealing primarily for the damage it will do to other EU countries.

I'm not sure I understand why.

That is about as sensible as the bank robber who said, give me the money or I shoot myself.

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12 hours ago, Chris W said:

I might have this wrong, I haven't researched it but so far as I understand it the Tariff reductions are intended to apply to all countries, not just the EU.  As you say, they can't be selectively applied in the absence of an FTA.

 

Yes, my understading was globally applied. Peter

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"Revoke Article 50" petition stands at more than FOUR MILLION signatures.   OK that's a long way from 50 million votes, but its more than any other parliamentary petition before. 

The opposing petition, "Leave at the end of Match" has got half a million.   If those were a vox pop survey, the "Revoke" would be a clear winner.

John

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John, don't get too drawn into popularist petitions. The are very disposable, and hold no real standing at all.

Not that I am dismissive, but just think, online petitions are signed by allsorts of the FB generation, where as the leave petition "natural home" is more likely to be those older, and less interested in social media. So results should be taken with a large pinch of salt.

But have there been any proper polls done recently (a far better, but not always entirely accurate) which would be a better comparison of the countries mood?

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/03/01/where-we-stand-brexit

 

That suggests that there is no clear leader on where the country is. OK, 3 weeks ago, so things may have changed. But probably the thing that HAS changed is "we" are getting tired of the whole malarky. It really is painful.

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Clive

From afar, it looks as if the direction that Brexit is taking is still being treated as a party political dispute, instead of the daily-deepening disaster that it is.  The Govt appear to have handled the whole process, negotiation and presentation in a thrall of ceaseless incompetence, which should have given a half-decent opposition (especially under circumstances where the Govt majority is so slim) a golden opportunity to wrest control and... do something Anything.

But if the Govt is marked out by its failings, the leadership of the Opposition must rank as the worst and most inept bunch of losers ever to have graced Parliament.  No direction, no policy, floundering on the banana skins of internal squabbles.  An utter disgrace whose biggest crime is the failure to bring the checks and balances that they are supposed to be there for.  Yet Corbyn seems to be safer on his fool's throne that May.

I believe the polite term is omnishambles, but our dear American cousins have a better term: clusterfuck.

Paul

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1 hour ago, PaulAA said:

Clive

From afar, it looks as if the direction that Brexit is taking is still being treated as a party political dispute, instead of the daily-deepening disaster that it is.  The Govt appear to have handled the whole process, negotiation and presentation in a thrall of ceaseless incompetence, which should have given a half-decent opposition (especially under circumstances where the Govt majority is so slim) a golden opportunity to wrest control and... do something Anything.

But if the Govt is marked out by its failings, the leadership of the Opposition must rank as the worst and most inept bunch of losers ever to have graced Parliament.  No direction, no policy, floundering on the banana skins of internal squabbles.  An utter disgrace whose biggest crime is the failure to bring the checks and balances that they are supposed to be there for.  Yet Corbyn seems to be safer on his fool's throne that May.

I believe the polite term is omnishambles, but our dear American cousins have a better term: clusterfuck.

Paul

Paul, The problem is, May is piggy in the middle between a House that  overwhelmingly refuses to accept the WA and the political agreement on the backstop imposed by Brussels, and Brussels that refuses to change the backstop.  In my view the House is right to reject an open ended political agreement that would leave UK at the mercy of a veto by any one of the 27 nations in EU, and with final adjucation by ECJ. The House is doing its job concientiously and for once the large number of lawyer-MPs is proving its worth. I dont see party poiltics at play nor a failure of leadership: May cannot make chalk into cheese, no-one can without Brussels moving on the polagt/backstop.  It is , to me, a further confirmation that UK must divorce itself from Brussels' dictats.

Peter

 

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Posted (edited)

I need to get one of those multiple coats May keeps wearing, they appear to be bullet proof, be quite handy for a night out in PH.

 

David Cameron admits Brexit is 'not as bad as we thought ...

Edited by RedRooster
photo

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23 minutes ago, PaulAA said:

But if the Govt is marked out by its failings, the leadership of the Opposition must rank as the worst and most inept bunch of losers ever to have graced Parliament.  No direction, no policy, floundering on the banana skins of internal squabbles. 

i know i said i'd make no more comments on the brexit process/outcome, but this is more a reflection on the current status!

 

 

funny paul, for the last two years i would have agreed with you, if i thought about corbin and the opposition i guess my main thought would have been the same, where's the bloody opposition!

now recognising that corbin and the labour party have their own internal struggles  and may or may not have any idea what they would do if they did gain control, and if they would do a better or worse job on the economy, health, education, et all than those that have actuall had the reins of power since 2010, is an entirely different debate.

but since 2016 election i now realise that they were actually in a position to do nothing. the conservatives plus dup had control and whilst they acted as a united block, whilst labour could have made more noise, they could have altered nothing, apart from appearing even more riven. with a bit of hindsight looking back whilst split over many issues, the one thing they actually remained fairly solid and consistent on was brexit i.e say next to nothing, go with the flow.

i'm sure its too big a leap to actually think it was thought of or a plan, but allowing may and the conservatives and the dup to do all the arguing and pull themselves apart with division has actually allowed when that time came for them to now actually have a small influence on the outcome, all the more so as having hardly expressed a thought or opinion on the subject the government has really been in the dark what they, if they do anything will be. so we have a fractional conservative party, where it appears everybody(well a lot) now seems to feel free to vote with their consciencel a dup that have lost a bit of influence over being the final arbitrator and are starting to think hard about what the fall out in ni is actually going to be after whatever happens. and an opposition where certainly some are only going to vote on conscience, but where labour as a group under corbin may well be able to pull a solid surprise whipped vote on a critical point. 

so labours strategy? cockup or planning?

interesting times ahead eh!

alan  

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25 minutes ago, PeterC said:

political agreement on the backstop imposed by Brussels

peter, check your facts before reinforcing prejudice

the eu did not impose the backstop, they didn't even propose it, that is all may's proposal. the eu suggested a much simpler solution which would have meant that until the future negotiations/relationship (you know that big white elephant in the room that still has to be tackled even if the leaving deal goes through) was concluded or at least at the point that a working relationship was established that it would be entirely practical for the whole of the uk to remain in the customs union and the single market until new deal done.

however as that cut across a bunch of may's red lines and so annoyed the erg faction, that is was mays team who actually proposed the backstop, and effectively hung ni and the dup in potential limbo. if i remember somewhere after defeat of mv1 when may was told to go back and be tough on the eu as the little rabbits were sure  to blink, the eu did suggest that although the deal was the deal that plan a was still possible. but yet again it was rejected. 

so can we please drop this the eu are being unreasonable on the backstop, its what we asked for, its what we got!

 

alan

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3 hours ago, zetecspit said:

John, don't get too drawn into popularist petitions. The are very disposable, and hold no real standing at all.

Not that I am dismissive, but just think, online petitions are signed by allsorts of the FB generation, where as the leave petition "natural home" is more likely to be those older, and less interested in social media. So results should be taken with a large pinch of salt.

But have there been any proper polls done recently (a far better, but not always entirely accurate) which would be a better comparison of the countries mood?

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/03/01/where-we-stand-brexit

 

That suggests that there is no clear leader on where the country is. OK, 3 weeks ago, so things may have changed. But probably the thing that HAS changed is "we" are getting tired of the whole malarky. It really is painful.

You ARE being dismissive, ZS, of the now FIVE Million who support the Revoke 50 petition.     How is it that someone who uses Fb, or just a computer, has a voice that is worthless competed to someone who doesn't?

No clear leader?  A Million people turned out yesterday in person to march on Westminster to demand that 50 be revoked.  Are they insignificant too?

John

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John,

 

I wouldn't read too much into that 'million',  no doubt many came from far away but London is an area that is strongly remain  area and has a very large population. (I've no idea of the current population but it was in the order of 7 or 8 million I believe, perhaps more?)

What annoys me more than anything is that a referendum was held and all of our elected representiitves should have been working to that end to secure the best deal  possible. We all know that this did not happen and that the negotiations have been poorly carried out. It's time to get Britain out of this mess of an E.U., there's no doubt that we will suffer for it in the short term but we have a very long time to get our house in order and start to reap the benefits of independence. It will take some good governance, so our politicians will have to throw away the rubber stamp and start listening and learning.

In Holland there has been an upsurge with a new political party and has won a significant number of seats on an anti E.U. platform, amongst other aims, The Forum voor Democratie has taken the current government's senate majority away. We are not the only country that feels this way by a long chalk.

Alec

 

 

 

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16 minutes ago, JohnD said:

You ARE being dismissive, ZS, of the now FIVE Million who support the Revoke 50 petition.     How is it that someone who uses Fb, or just a computer, has a voice that is worthless competed to someone who doesn't?

No clear leader?  A Million people turned out yesterday in person to march on Westminster to demand that 50 be revoked.  Are they insignificant too?

john, as you know i am a very strong remainer, but unfortunately ZS is correct both the petition and the march are nothing more than an ineffectual sideshow alongside where this train wreck is taking us, and about as effective at changing that. they may well do personal good for individuals who may be able to say/feel at least i said/did something.

5 million people recording that they thought brexit was a stupid idea 3 years ago, and that they still think the same way, is as relevant to the outcome and what attention our politicians will pay to it, as me announcing  i didn't wan't toast this morning, and upon reflection i still agree with that choice.  17+ million and they might just start thinking something has changed here!

likewise the march, 1 million middle class respectable people organising by coach, train etc to go to london and march around quietly saying this is all stupid please stop it has politically about the impact of about a 1/5th of the online vote. a city the size of london could handle a well behaved crown three times that size, and still it would have zero impact on the thought process that those who  are going to decide our fate.

if you want to protest, protest, but don't piss about at it if you want to have any effect. give me a 10th of the people who went to london yesterday, who tomorrow would get in their cars and drive to the nearest big city or town tomorrow morning and by lunch time we woul have the whole country in grid lock, authorities would then notice that little people can actuallyhave an impact!

alan  

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